USD Since breaking up with gold, the oil dollar has become the core foundation of the USD. Most of the USD is issued based on the expansion of USD bond , changing from gold standard to USD bond standard. The petrodollar agreement with Saudi and other Middle East oil-producing countries has consolidated its monetary status. Through the perfect closed loop of "oil-USD-USD bond", it further supports the use of the global market in the USD, and completes transactions through a SWIFT international clearing system indirectly controlled by the United States.
Petroleum dollar is changing color
. Exporting US dollars to countries that need to buy oil is one of its means to harvest wealth from the global market interest rate spread , but now the situation has changed new things. From the latest IMF report and hot financial news, we can find that with the latest important signs of global de-dollarization, the butterfly effect has become increasingly fierce.
According to a report released by GOLDCORE, the world's leading gold research organization, on December 8, the Russian Central Bank plans to build a new Asian monetary system anchored by gold or digital gold to stay away from the US dollar. It is also planning to link gold to oil, use gold to settle and trade oil, and launch PetroGold, a replacement for petrodollar, PetroGold. In November, the African country rich in gold, Ghana suddenly announced the use of gold rather than US dollar reserves to purchase oil products.
These two new news in the oil settlement field provide the latest footnote for the decline of the "oil-US dollar-US debt" system. Another new sign of is that the cracks in the international settlement financial system dominated by the US dollar are expanding internally between the United States and its economic allies.
New progress is that since OPEC+ rejected the tough demand for US production to control high inflation a month ago, the petrodollar agreement has thus appeared. For example, Saudi Arabia is opening the way to trade the digital currency in the economic and trade with the UAE to stop the US dollar. At the same time, Saudi Arabia has continued to reduce its holdings of US bonds that account for about 20% of its positions since 2022, and is exploring other economic growth points to get rid of the constraints of the petrodollar, which shows that there is a problem with the "oil-dollar-US bond" system that supports the US dollar, but things are not over.
Another latest development in de-dollarization is that , which owns the world's second reserve currency, EU , updated and released a draft plan to challenge the status of the US dollar on November 17, intending to use the euro as the default currency for energy procurement contracts between the EU and third countries, excluding the US dollar, and announced plans to create a euro-denominated crude oil futures contract in 2023 to bypass the centralization of the US dollar.
At the same time, Japan, which has carried the banner of de-dollarization in recent months, is also trying to control the depreciation of the yen and the inflation expectations of .
To this end, the Bank of Japan has joined forces with several major Japanese banks to plan to establish a cross-border network system for digital currency payments similar to SWIFT, and advocates that an alternative US dollar settlement system can be established when trading with Iran in the oil field.
At the same time, Japan's enthusiasm for de-dollarization can also explain the problem from Japan's US bond holdings . According to the latest data released by the US Treasury Department on December 16, Japan, as the largest overseas US bond buyer at the cornerstone of US bonds, continued to sell 42 billion US bonds in October, and for the fourth consecutive month of reduction, a total of 158.1 billion yuan was sold, the largest selling force among all overseas US bond creditors, in order to deter the US dollar. 's current US bond positions have been cut to the lowest in more than three years (please refer to the figure below).
This further shows that the "oil-dollar-US bond" system is having problems, because, now, not only are the petrodollar agreements between the United States and the Middle East oil-producing countries, but even in the past two decades, Global central bank has also changed from the largest buyer of US bonds to the largest net seller (please refer to the figure below).What the Federal Reserve did not expect was that the EU countries, the United Kingdom, Switzerland , Canada, Japan, Sweden and other countries, Central Bank , also formed a digital currency research team with Bank of International Settlements , aiming to achieve de-dollar centralization in some global commodity trading or financial settlement fields.
New progress is that at present, Iran's four banks are negotiating with many countries such as Japan, Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Russia, Switzerland, Austria, South Africa and other countries on the use of digital currencies in energy and financial settlement transactions to bypass the centralization of the US dollar. News shows that Iran paves the way for the comprehensive expansion of the issuance of digital currencies based on the successful test of digital currencies in October this year.
To this end, the Iranian central bank stated in an updated report released on December 15 that it plans to include more currencies into the new foreign exchange settlement system, allowing merchants with import business transactions with Iran to make currency pairing settlement payments with their corresponding countries, and completely disable the US dollar in commodity transactions with some countries.
Immediately afterwards, Iran also proposed to introduce a new unified currency in Eurasian emerging economies to provide a problem of parallel settlement of US dollars.
Immediately afterwards, according to the Iran Financial Tribune on December 15, since last year, China used RMB to buy Iranian oil for the first order, most transaction settlements were conducted in RMB or euros when buying Iranian oil, combined with the advantages of digital RMB , which shows that the RMB has added another new oil currency option to other oil-producing countries in addition to the oil dollar.
In this regard, the global commodity market needs a new technical foundation for the US dollar independent multinational settlement currency. The Advisory Committee of the world's well-known think tank OMFIF further explained in its latest report published that by introducing strategic resources or digital currencies supported by domestic currencies, it has the ability to weaken the centralization of the US dollar. Then, creating a legal digital currency that all global central banks can accept or support, is of course the latest solution.
So, judging from the above new de-dollarization news in oil currencies, digital currencies and US bonds, it may indicate that the rules of the oil game will begin to change, This means that the golden age of oil may come, and this may be the next pearl harbor-like event for the US dollar. (end)
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