Hong Kong stock market has risen very well recently. In this round of rebound in November, several major mainstream indexes in Hong Kong stocks, rose by , Hang Seng Index rebounded by 36%, Hang Seng State-owned Enterprises rebounded by 39%, Hang Seng Technology rebounded by 61%. Although the rebound is not small, everyone should know the mathematical problem of mismatch between the rise and fall. The more the index falls, the more additional increase is required for the rebound. If we extend the cycle, from the high point in February 2021, the Hang Seng Index still fell by -36%, Hang Seng State-owned Enterprises fell by -44%, and Hang Seng Technology fell by -60%. Therefore, although the rebound is strong, it is at most a halfway point, and it is still far from the top of the mountain.
review of this round of Hong Kong stock rebound, for three main reasons:
(1) has fallen a lot, and oversold rebound
oversold rebound is the main motivation that the hall owner believes. Review of the bear market of Hong Kong stocks several times:
From November 2007 to February 2009, Hong Kong stocks fell 60% in one year and three months,
From May 2015 to February 2016, Hong Kong stocks fell 32% in nine months,
From February 2018 to May 2020, Hong Kong stocks fell 30% in two years and three months.
Although the decline from 2021 to the present is not the longest, the maximum 50% drop means that this is the largest bear market for Hong Kong stocks after the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008.
(2) The recovery of the theme industry
is measured by the rebound strength in the past two months. The sectors leading the rise in Hong Kong stocks are mainly Biomedical , technology Internet, and real estate.
Hang Seng Industry Index Performance this year
Health care sector is the first sector to rebound in Hong Kong stocks. It started in early October. After the normalized control of the new crown epidemic, residents have at least the three major aspects of vaccination, conventional drug reserves, and online consultations. This will be the source of continuous and stable performance for relevant pharmaceutical companies. The Internet market followed closely behind. The normalized supervision attitude of the Internet platform economy was established as early as April, but Hang Seng Technology only bottomed out in November. The owner believed that the landmark event was the news that the joint venture between Tencent and China Unicom in early November, which means that normalized supervision officially transitioned from policy documents to economic activities.
real estate sector bottomed out and rebounded in early November. The market in the real estate sector was mainly driven by domestic real estate stock . The sixteen real estate items released on Double Eleven mark the official entry of real estate into the era of comprehensive easing. What followed was the private real estate companies that solved the capital problem and rebounded completely, with the increase generally between one and two times.
(3) U.S. rate hike
html At the last interest rate meeting of this year ended in the early morning of December 15, Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 50bp as of about, causing federal funds target interest rate hike to 4.25%-4.5%.
Currently, the market generally expects that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 75bp in 2023, and the target interest rate will reach the highest 5%-5.25% , and then enter the rate cut channel.
This means that the rate hike process in the United States has been completed by more than 80%, and Rate hike next year will no longer be the main contradiction affecting the global capital market.
After the results of the interest rate hike were announced, yesterday's US stock only fell slightly by 0.6%, and US bond and gold were also calm, which is enough to prove that the market no longer regards the US interest rate hike as the "number one negative".
What do you think about the market next year?
First of all, a stable internal and external environment is the basis for Hong Kong stocks to improve . In 2023, both at home and abroad will be "recovery", recovering from post-epidemic reconstruction and recovering from inflationary pressure. Overall, countries will cooperate more than confrontation, which will help rebuild the confidence of the Hong Kong market.
In addition, Hong Kong is a market dominated by institutions, with about 85% of transactions being controlled by institutions. Paying attention to institutional actions is of great reference significance for the development of Hong Kong stocks.
Hong Kong Stock Exchange Trading Structure
This year, southbound funds representing mainland institutional funds still maintain a good inflow trend, and maintained a positive inflow in the first 11 months. Moreover, in October and November, southbound funds flowed in 73.8 billion and 50.2 billion respectively, ranking first and third respectively, respectively. Institutions voted with their feet to be optimistic about Hong Kong stocks in 2023.
Foreign capital is also consistently bullish on Hong Kong stocks.
html Since November, JPMorgan Chase & Co., net increased its holdings of by 18.9 billion Hong Kong stocks, and UBS (UBS ) increased its holdings of 14.4 billion Hong Kong stocks.
Comparison to the data from February 2021 to October this year, JPMorgan Chase has accumulated a 37.8 billion Hong Kong stock market shareholdings, and UBS has accumulated a 27.4 billion Hong Kong stock market shareholdings...
is equivalent to taking back half of the chips sold in the past two years in more than a month.
Finally, let’s take a look at the valuation situation.
Hang Seng Index valuation status
Currently, the Hang Seng Index has a price-to-earnings ratio of , which is 9.65 times, and is in the historical 31%, neither high nor low, is already a certain distance from the bottom of the valuation, but it is too early to talk about overvalued.
The owner of the church felt that the valuation elasticity of the Hong Kong stock market was not high. The Hang Seng Index had a valuation elasticity from the bottom of the valuation to a maximum of 14.93 times, which was only 1 times the space, which was far less than the valuation elasticity of the growth index, which was several times the time.
So the current valuation repair market of Hong Kong stocks will come to an end. How to develop in the future depends mainly on the profits of Hong Kong stocks and related policies, which means that the market will move towards differentiation, rather than the general rise in November.
We can also judge the future relative trends of A shares and Hong Kong stocks.
Hang Seng AH premium index measures the price ratio of listed companies in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks. An index greater than 100 means that A-shares are more expensive than Hong Kong stocks, and vice versa.
The owner of the hall intercepted the AH premium index trend for the past 10 years. It can be seen that although A-shares generally have a premium relative to Hong Kong stocks, and the premium level is gradually increasing, the current AH premium rate is 141, which is still at a relatively expensive time for A-shares.
Hang Seng AH premium index has been trending in the past 10 years
But when the premium rate is high to a certain level (it used to be around 140, but now it is around 150), Hong Kong stocks will have a temporary strengthening market compared to A-shares. The time points circled by
are early 2016, end of 2017, end of 2020 and now. In the second half of these time points, Hong Kong stocks will have a phased strengthening compared with A-shares. The only exception is that at the end of 2017, the A-shares in Hong Kong fell at the same time in 2018, but the decline of Hong Kong stocks is also smaller.
If we look at the AH premium, The current advantageous market of Hong Kong stocks over A-shares may continue until the second quarter of next year.
Based on the above information, friends who currently hold Hong Kong stocks and have not yet made a return can continue to hold and wait and see. If you want to buy at the bottom, you can buy slowly first.
or above are some of the views of the hall owner on Hong Kong stock investment at this stage and investment opportunities in sectors. I will write a separate article to share with you in the future. # fund something is happening # # fund diary # # investment # @Today's topic @Today's headline @Today's headline @Toutiao fund
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