China Net Finance, December 7 (Reporter Chang Shuishu) Price rise and fall are about residents' lives. According to the schedule, the National Bureau of Statistics will announce November CPI (consumer price) and PPI (ex-factory price of industrial producers) on December 9.
Haineng Investment Consulting Yuan Songtao, Haineng Investment Consulting Wu Jian, Zhu Chao, Xu Xiyao, Pan Wenlong, Ye Hailin, Yuan Songtao, Wu Jian, Ouyang Xiaozhi, Zhao Xing, Huang Fei, Song Luyi, etc. "Analysis believes that driven by the decline in pork and vegetable prices, coupled with the impact of high base, CPI in November may drop by 0.1%-0.2% month-on-month , and the year-on-year increase returns to the "1" era; November PPI may stabilize at around -1.3% year-on-year.
Pork and vegetables declined to drive the CPI decline in November
Source: National Bureau of Statistics
Minsheng Bank Chief economist Wen Bin said that it is expected to be expected in November CPI fell by 0.2% month-on-month. Coupled with the high base last year, the year-on-year growth rate will drop significantly to 1.5%. In terms of
food, Wen Bin analyzed that stable supply and insufficient demand have led to weakening prices. In November, pork prices in the early stage, due to the large increase in , demand weakened due to the epidemic and weather, resulting in a reversed expectation. The early stage of squeezing and selling behavior turned into concentrated slaughter. Prices have been significantly adjusted. Under weak demand, the prices of beef, sheep, chicken, and dairy eggs are also weaker than those in previous autumn and winter. In addition, the weather this winter is sunny and warm, and the abundant supply has led to a month-on-month decline in vegetable prices in November. Overall, food prices are expected to show a more significant month-on-month decline in November.
" November CPI fell by 0.1% month-on-month, and increased by 1.6% year-on-year. ” Zhejiang Securities analysis, pork price surged and fell back to , vegetable prices fell sharply, the epidemic suppressed core CPI repair, and CPI fell significantly year-on-year under multiple pressures.
Chief macro analyst Liang Zhonghua believes that vegetable basket products The wholesale price 200 index fell seasonally, and pig prices continued to weaken in November. The average wholesale price of pork fell slightly from 34.54 yuan/kg in October to 33.87 yuan/kg; in non-food, domestic gasoline and diesel prices rose slightly month-on-month. Under the disturbance of the epidemic, the core CPI is expected to still hover at a low level. "So, we estimate that the CPI in November may fall by 0.2% month-on-month and may drop to 1.5% year-on-year. "Liang Zhonghua said.
The epidemic affects the economic recovery process PPI may remain down year-on-year
Source: National Bureau of Statistics
Prices of important production materials in late November announced by the National Bureau of Statistics show that compared with mid-November, the prices of ordinary mixed coal, flat glass, gasoline, liquefied natural gas and other prices in the late 12.7%, 0.7%, 2.3%, and 5.2% respectively.
Zhejiang Securities analyzed that it is expected that the PPI in November will drop by 0.2% month-on-month and 1.5% year-on-year, and the signs of global recession deepen. The PMI in the United States, Europe and Japan in November are both lower than the boom line . The epidemic affects my country's economic recovery process. The prices of industrial products fell more and more.
Liang Zhonghua believes that since November, international oil prices have continued to fall, domestic steel prices have fallen, and coal prices have risen. It is expected that the PPI in November may stabilize at -1.3% year-on-year.
Peking University National Economic Research Center pointed out that in November, international oil prices have declined due to the reasonable price limit of Russian oil, driving the same-way fluctuations in the prices of means of production, and the impact of daily necessities on demand side, and industrial production prices continue to fall year-on-year. It is expected that the PPI in November will grow by -1.4% year-on-year, down 0.1 percentage point from the previous period.
"The prices of bulk commodities at home and abroad have not changed much, and the high base plays a major role. It is expected that the PPI in November may remain around -1.3% year-on-year. "HuaChuang fixed income team researched that
HuaChuang fixed income team analyzed that overseas, the heating of overseas economic recession expectations led to a 2.9% drop in international oil prices in November; inventory continued to sell, driving copper prices to rise slightly by 3.1%; domestic, under the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices, coal production capacity was effectively released, and prices of thermal coal , coking coal and other prices fell; due to the impact of stable real estate policies, steel prices stopped falling and rebounded slightly; weak downstream demand dragged down PTA prices down 2.4%.
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