War is an important keyword in international relations this year. A Russian-Ukraine war changed the pattern of the whole world in just one year and severely damaged the global economy.

exchange rate war, Fed rate hike harms the global

war is an important keyword in international relations this year. A Russian-Ukraine war changed the pattern of the whole world in just one year and severely damaged the global economy of . But under this war filled with gunpowder, there is still an invisible economic war in the world in 2022. Compared with this economic war, the damage caused to the world by the Russian-Ukraine war can only be considered a minor matter.

The Federal Reserve's interest rate hike in 2022 and the U.S. bond hike balance sheet reduction are the economic policies that have had the biggest impact on the global economy in recent years. Under the downward pressure on the economy, the United States has to start tightening its monetary policy in advance, trying to curb inflation and boost the economy.

This process was originally conducive to the improvement of the global economy, and it was a process of long pain turning into short pain. The United States will definitely give priority to protecting the U.S. economy in the process, but the final result should be that global inflation will be generally suppressed. There may be countries with high debt ratios that are under tremendous pressure, but from a global perspective, it should be a trend of bottoming out and rebounding.

The problem lies in Feder 's indecisiveness and recklessness. In fact, in 21 years, the Federal Reserve had already held a meeting to discuss the process of hike rate , but it has never been implemented. At that time, the outside world's attitude towards the Federal Reserve was dovish, because Biden and still had a demand for water release in 2021, and the Federal Reserve could not affect the government's policies too much. Rate hikes were considered to be in the second half of 22 or early 23.

But by the first half of 22 years, the economic data was no longer visible. The Federal Reserve had to urgently launch austerity policies, start raising interest rates in the US dollar and shrink its debt balance sheet. At this time, the Federal Reserve's policy changed sharply to a hawkish, and began to implement the toughest inflation-suppressing policy in the United States in decades.

But from loose policies during the epidemic to interest rate hikes, this matter is not authentic. You should know that before the interest rate hikes began, the United States had just launched an epic economic boost.

has remained above $4 trillion for a long time since the Federal Reserve's balance sheet began to rise rapidly in 2013. It was not until 19 years in the late Trump era that it was crushed to below $4 trillion. But during the epidemic, in order to boost the economy, Trump formulated a series of plans to expand the balance sheet, using money to smash the economy, and the Federal Reserve's debt soared.

And after Biden took over, he was still the old routine, money, paper, and printing. Under Biden's large infrastructure that he thought was comparable to Roosevelt , the balance sheet was directly piled up to 9 trillion yuan.

If you have too much money, you can restore the economy of sudden death, but the sequelae of inflation is enough to make the economy explode again. Most of the Federal Reserve's debt assets are bought for printing money. Biden and Trump have increased their debts and immediately raised interest rates and reduced their balance sheets, which means that trillions of dollars have just been put into the market and are about to be taken back.

and then we are familiar with the plot. The dollar exchange rate soared in a short period of time, the dollar suddenly strengthened, and the exchange rate of each currency against the dollar plummeted in a short period of time. It turned out that after some funds in the market were withdrawn, some emerging market countries that borrowed money to develop had a problem in repaying interest. Inflation was not only not suppressed, but began to explode.

, like the traditional plot, South America was the first to be furious. Currencies in South American countries plummeted against the US dollar in a short period of time, and inflation rates increased explosively. Then this wave began in the back garden of the United States and gradually spread around the world. European currencies were once tied by the US dollar. The European Central Bank failed to curb the continued rise in inflation after more than a dozen rounds of interest rate hikes.

Then what we all know is unfolded, Sri Lanka was eliminated, and the global debt crisis spreads. After the second half of the year, even the allies of the United States were unwilling to continue to struggle. Most of them followed the US policy and let the dollar index determine the exchange rate of their own country.

Both China and Japan are selling US Treasury , sending out what signal

, but two of them have not compromised, but use the US Treasury held in their hands to intervene in exchange rates to ensure the security of their own exchange rates. This is China and Japan.

is actually possible, Japan is unwilling to be the United States as a bad guy, but in this wave of economic flood discharge, the Japanese have the same feeling in the 1990s. At the beginning of the interest rate hike, the Japanese economic community clearly felt that the United States wanted to treat Japan as a flood discharge pond again. The subsequent historic yen plunge confirmed this idea, and Japan was scared when the exchange rate reached its lowest point since 1998. Amid the threat of economic collapse, Japan began its first artificial interference in exchange rates in 24 years.

In order to boost the exchange rate of the local currency, Japan used cash stored in the Federal Reserve's reverse repurchase fund pool to go long . After these funds were exhausted, Japan began to sell US bonds and used the obtained cash to buy long lbs to boost the exchange rate of the local currency. html Since September, Japan, as the largest holding of US bonds, has reduced its holdings of US bonds for three consecutive months, with a reduction of nearly US$80 billion.

Another one that uses the same method is China. China returned to the selling strategy after selling and slightly increasing its holdings in . is the second largest holding of US bonds. After China reduced its holdings to less than US$1 trillion in the first half of the year, it maintained its holdings of under for five consecutive months, and the reduction in September alone reached US$38.2 billion.

corresponds to this and the control of offshore RMB . In the K line chart of RMB against the US dollar, we can clearly see the traces of trading. When the US dollar index rises and the RMB exchange rate falls, there will be obvious signs of buying long, or control the sideways traces. Through capital investment, the RMB exchange rate is effectively controlled.

In this war without gunpowder, China and Japan have become special existences in the world. Although China and Japan are just doing their own interests, the move to sell US bonds has impacted the US bond market, causing US bonds to fluctuate sharply, putting pressure on the United States in another form. This strange appearance of

is caused by the complexity of today's global economic game. At the same time, the resistance between China and Japan also illustrates a problem: With the development of the times, the era when the United States covered the sky in the economic field has ended.

Sino-US war risk mitigation , will the Taiwan issue break out within five years?

is the complex interest relationship between China and the United States that has added many concerns to the confrontation between the two sides. China and the United States are the world's largest economy, and the world's second largest economy. If the United States wants to stabilize its economy, China must cooperate. If the United States makes , Sino-US relations to the point of going to war, China will undermine the United States economically, and the United States will not be able to bear it.

And now, China and the United States are not sure to defeat each other, whether it is an economic war or a military confrontation. useless confrontation will cause useless expenses. Everyone’s economy is not that good, and it is not good for everyone to continue to consume it.

So we can see that aggressive United States has actively restored its external transportation routes and gradually cooled down diplomatic relations with China.

Although neither of the two countries is willing to discuss specific solutions to the Taiwan issue, there is already a preliminary consensus between the two countries on the Taiwan issue. The possibility of conflict between China and the United States has been greatly reduced.

Former Australian Prime Minister Ruke-wen In his speech on the 17th of this month, he talked about his judgment on Sino-US relations. He believes that because both sides do not want a full-scale conflict, China and the United States will not go to war on the Taiwan Strait issue within five years.

According to Lianhe Zaobao, Rudd gave the reason for his judgment: "Because they all considered that it might defeat the war, and this comprehensive military conflict would also bring disaster to the global economy." And Rudd believed that it was this idea that promoted the China-US summit and promoted the easing of relations between the two countries.

is actually an easy-to-understand idea. The overall US foreign strategy is expansionary, and testing China is inevitable. The United States is likely to stimulate China through various marginal events and adjust its policies based on China's reaction. In this wave of decline in Sino-US relations, the United States may not really want to start a fight with China in the Taiwan Strait, but the United States will still provoke China.

Then when things are wrong, the United States immediately puts forward a life attitude, eases the relationship and encourages everyone to continue to live their own lives. In fact, the United States' own economic situation is not good either, and it is also part of the confrontation strategy when it is better in some events. China and the United States are the two largest countries in the world. China still needs to do something in the future for the global economic recovery. It is not in the interests of the United States to say that it is dead now.

In the foreseeable years, the general direction of the United States will still be to seek to compete with China, but before the economy recovers, the United States will be more cautious about the conflict. The possibility of war breaking out in the Taiwan Strait in the next five years is indeed not high.

But these are all relative statements, not high does not mean there is no. Biden himself said in the talks that he would continue to pursue fierce competition with China in the future, but "should not" raise competition to conflict. If Biden says "no", it means an obvious political commitment. If he says "not" it means a political rhetoric to avoid commitment. Here Biden left room for himself and was unwilling to give up the possibility of initiating a conflict.

So even if the international community believes that the possibility of a conflict between China and the United States is not high, China must remain vigilant enough. The United States is gradually losing global economic hegemony and will inevitably take some measures to safeguard the hegemony. Staying vigilant is the best way to ensure your own safety.

The siege of Biden and his son: The US political struggle is becoming more intense

, of course, what slows down the US's external expansion is not only economic and diplomatic issues, but also internal issues of the United States.

This year's midterm elections can be regarded as the most intense midterm elections in American history. The election attention caused by the two parties is comparable to the presidential elections, and the Democratic Party's final turnaround is also classic. As the Democrats cheered, the mutual liquidation brought about by partisan struggles is becoming increasingly fierce.

We are already very clear about the Democratic Party’s liquidation of Trump. With the support of Trump's own traffic halo, the FBI's raid on Trump's mansion has become a household news. For all this, Republican is not without a counterattack. After the Republican Party took over the House of Representatives, the liquidation of Biden and his son has been put on the agenda.

Like many traditional American political elites, Biden has his own family political circle and there are many scandals within the family. The Biden family is a typical "being a referee and an athlete". Although Biden achieved nothing in the first forty years of his career in politics, he was at least a senior political leader with a deep qualification in the United States, which provided a lot of convenience to his family. The Biden family went into politics and went business while doing business, making a fortune in the unique political system of the United States.

Biden himself only has nine million dollars in assets on the surface, and he himself calls himself a "more rich middle class." But his family is actually an absolute billionaire family. Biden just participated in politics as a relatively "clean" identity, providing shelter for political and business collusion and money-power transactions in the family.

Biden's second son Hunter Biden is nominally a lawyer, but actually registered his own investment company , using family relationships to trade money and power. He is a core figure in Biden's interest group. Since the United States successfully incited Ukraine's coup in 2014, he has been an advisor to Burisma Holdings, the largest private natural gas company in Ukraine. Biden Jr. also owns the company's shares and is a member of the board of directors.

At the same time, Hunter Biden is also a major scandal contributor to the Biden family, and his private computer data leak provides the Republicans with the main evidence to liquidate Biden. This intelligence is exposed together with a large number of photos of Hunter Biden's private life, which is very credible. Evidence shows that when Biden was still vice president, he secretly met with Ukrainian energy dealers and helped them settle Ukrainian officials who investigated their tax issues through money and power transactions. Biden threatened Ukraine to fire relevant officials on the grounds of seizing US aid. Biden Jr. receives millions of dollars in rewards from energy providers every year. After receiving the rewards, Biden will not only help energy providers solve their difficulties, but also provide them with US policy support.Biden personally went to the Ukrainian capital Kiev to meet with local officials and sent them the terms of the project to assist Ukraine in developing the gas industry.

In addition, Hunter Biden has connections with many oligopolies in countries. Many oligopolies, including Russia and Kazakhstan, have financial contacts with him, and he often receives money from these oligopolies. In terms of Russia and Ukraine, many evidences show that the Biden family has gone further than Trump.

In addition to foreign business, Biden Jr. is not at ease at home. After he founded the company, he used political relations to invest the credit investment of government-supported small and medium-sized enterprises in his own company and used taxpayers' money to do his own business. He also used Biden's endorsement to issue bonds worth with a total value of $60 million to commit fraud and embezzle a large number of pension funds.

Beyond all this, Biden Jr. is also a nominal "painter". His paintings are often sold at auctions of hundreds of thousands of dollars, and some paintings are even valued at millions of dollars. In the United States, part-time painters are the first choice for many politicians to launder money.

Characters similar to Biden Jr. include Biden's son-in-law Howard, younger brother James and Frank. Together, these people constitute the Biden family, and almost everyone has a record of trading money and power and embezzling state property. Through the huge wealth brought by power, the nearly 80-year-old president has entered the wealthiest class of America, owning a multimillion-dollar villa. And to the outside world, he has always claimed that he is the inspirational president who started his career in poverty and reached its peak through hard work.

The most interesting thing about

is that most of these criminal evidence was exposed by Biden Jr., and a small part was semi-public. The United States is such a society. If no one sues a semi-public money-power transaction, it will have no impact. In history, both parties were happy to get rich like this, so naturally no one prosecuted these behaviors.

This is also the main direction of the Republican liquidation of Biden, including prosecuting Hunter for tax evasion and fraud; and Biden's own money and power transactions. After all, Biden has broken up in the political liquidation of Trump and has not left any face to the Republican Party. Next, the Republican Party will naturally return the color. This chaos in

may eventually evolve into impeachment of Biden. Biden himself will also receive restrictions, so Biden needs to stabilize the diplomatic situation after the midterm elections.

As bystanders, it is best to eat this melon on the side and see what else can the United States, a government that has rotten from the inside to the outside, produce.