A strong man who picks open a main blood vessel will have to die no matter how strong the hematopoietic ability is. If the throat is stuck, it will hang up in a while. This is liquidity.
China's real estate industry has long developed into a high leverage and high turnover model, and the liquidity of funds is extremely important. When real estate regulation blocks the financial gap, it is actually liquidity. Not to mention the real estate industry, most industries cannot withstand it. Why should
be regulated? Because houses are for living, not for speculation, houses have financial attributes, and housing prices are too high and there is a bubble. Since this is the case, the method to reduce housing prices is very simple, that is, increase supply.
But our regulation is very interesting. Every time we restrict purchases and sales. On the one hand, it suppresses demand and distorts market prices. On the other hand, it controls land supply, which artificially causes insufficient supply. The advantage of doing this is that the land can be sold at a high price, and the harm of land finance comes from this.
Land is provided by the government, funds are provided by banks, and houses are developed by real estate companies. They are sold to people who want to buy a house. People who buy a house have two ideas: live on their own, or wait for a price. In this model of
, real estate companies are a big mistake, taking the biggest risk, and working hard, but in fact, they didn’t make much money, and they used all the money they earned to buy land. Most real estate companies have been in a tight cash flow for all year round.
After understanding the background of the real estate industry, let’s look at the real estate regulation and the essence of financial support for the full range of real estate.
Since housing prices are too high, how to adjust them? Depending on the current background of real estate, there are two, one is the real supply and demand relationship in the market. The core here is residential demand, because financial attributes are also based on this.
Residential attributes are mainly urbanization. To put it bluntly, the number of jobs that cities can accommodate. However, our population structure is very poor, and there are insufficient newborns. Those who can come to the city have already come. Even if those who cannot come continue, the speed will be much slower. Moreover, when we come to the city, we have to spend money when we open our eyes. We have to have jobs. There is a job, and there is an industry, and there is a demand.
demand is the three pillars. There is not much room for infrastructure construction, the export base is very high, and there are risks. Domestic demand does not have great potential in the short term, or even in the medium term.
In the past two years, six wallets have been advocated, but all six wallets are gone. What should I use to consume?
So this regulation is as follows: If it is adjusted up, the limited domestic demand will soon dry up, and the risks that everyone on earth knows may collapse quickly and there will be endless troubles, so it cannot be adjusted up. So, it’s good to lower it. The current real estate production capacity of in China is about 12 million new houses a year, and 60 million units have been created in five years. A family of three has a population of 180 million. The housing demand is really not big. If housing prices fall, how long can financial demand last? There is no need for a house to fall, and you will lose tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands a year. Even if you have a need, you will have to hesitate. This is the difficulty of regulation.
Let’s look at the real estate regulation in the past two years. Isn’t it funny? The essence is to prevent the decline, but if it does not rise, liquidity will be gone. Liquidity is gone, what is the meaning of the so-called price that does not fall?
We also have a characteristic, that is, the first and second tiers can actually rise, but they will be in place in one step and kill the third, fourth and fifth tiers. As for the third, fourth and fifth tiers, you can't move, but they can't rise because the core of living needs is met. In a word, there is really no shortage of houses on the market.
Today, the development of the real estate industry has caused more harm than good economic development. I don’t think there is any need to argue about this. I also want to solve the problem above the temple. I know that regulation is difficult. Just walk the tightrope. It’s too big to lose it. There’s no way. , but what do you think about killing the entire industry?
financing channels are blocked. As a real estate company boss said, if this continues, no private real estate developer can survive.
Real estate is divided into state-owned enterprises and private enterprises. After so many years, one financing . The capital cost of state-owned enterprises is much lower than that of civilian enterprises, and there are many financing channels. How can we compete?
The problem is that the entire real estate scale is too large. The real estate sales scale exceeds 18 trillion in 2021. The huge market of is , and state-owned real estate developers can’t afford it! If the private enterprises are completely kicked out, will the remaining state-owned enterprises be able to play?
The direct consequence of the "false sudden death" in the real estate industry is: unfinished buildings, and then new houses cannot be sold, the cash flow of the real estate industry deteriorates sharply, forming a larger-scale unfinished building, without any solution, and behind each unfinished new house is a family! Upstream and downstream, banks, insurance, etc. cannot escape.
The situation is already extremely serious, otherwise can a strong person change his mind?
In order to solve the money problem, Zhengzhou signed a 300 billion yuan agreement with China Development Bank , of which 160 billion is used for monetary shantytown renovation, and the acquisition of existing resettlement housing, housing tickets and other mechanisms to alleviate the liquidity of developers. This is the money that Zhengzhou needs, and it may not be able to solve all the problems. Real estate companies cannot die, they must live and build the house, otherwise the hole will be too big.
The suppression was so crazy back then, but now the rescue is so high that it is. Even the pre-sale supervision funds can be negotiated.
One mentioned here is liquidity. This article has been talking about liquidity. How to understand liquidity? Let’s look at a short story:
In a remote town, residents even pay back their debts, and they chase each other for money, but they can’t even ask for money. On that day, a foreigner came. The outsider came to a restaurant and took out a thousand yuan and said he wanted to have a meal. The restaurant owner immediately returned the thousand yuan to the butcher shop owner. The butcher shop owner returned the thousand yuan to the farm owner. The farm owner also returned the thousand yuan to the feed shop owner. The feed shop owner also returned the thousand yuan to the restaurant owner. At this time, people from other places said that they had something to do and they had to leave immediately and could not eat anymore, so they took the money away.
At this time, the money was still taken away by outsiders, but no one owed others any debts. This is called liquidity.
With liquidity, real estate companies will not die for a while: the house can be built and the money you borrow can be replaced. How happy everyone is.
Back to the topic of this article: What are the hidden worries behind the epic real estate market rescue?
is actually still an old problem: if you continue to operate for 5 years and have at least 50 million new houses, it is the demand of 150 million people. Where do you go to steal people for me? House prices are already so high. If they soar, they will die. If they don’t rise, no one will buy them. Real estate tax will be issued. Under the land finance model, real estate companies will continue to drain their free cash flow . Real estate companies are just tools for doing rough, tiring and dirty work. etc.
Suddenly thought of something. Today I chatted with a WeChat friend. I advised him to buy a savings insurance from me. It will be 3.5% compound interest for 30 years. If you invest 10 million, it will be 28.06 million in thirty years. There is no tax, absolutely safe, debt isolation, and the pre-marital property of your children.
But what if you buy a house, how much is the house worth 10 million yuan now in 30 years? This question is very interesting. If it is a good house, it may be 50 million or 100 million in 30 years, but if it is a bad house, can it be sold for 5 million in 30 years?
There is no shortage of houses in the market, what is lacking is good houses, but unfortunately, the proportion of good houses in total houses is a certain extent. I hope these developers are a little conscientious and build some high-quality houses so that everyone can enjoy it after spending money, although I think the conscience thing in business is not very reliable.
If you want to say that this real estate rescue, the biggest beneficiary may be insurance. The specific decision of banks is that they are destined to be unable to escape from this bubble, while the insurance industry can fight and withdraw at the same time, slowly cash out all the debts. equity finds an opportunity to get rid of it and stay away from this bomb .
For those who buy a house, "I have no hometown in my life, and being at peace is the place to go." Being able to adhere to "housing for living, not for speculation", and establishing a business based on settling down, and buying the house you like is the best.
For equity investors, you can think carefully about it. After this round of rescue, where is the company you hold in the future? Where is the cash flow? Where is the value?
Think about it carefully.
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