Hello everyone, I am I hammer. On November 10, Forbes released the 2022 China Mainland Rich List, and the total wealth of those on the list fell by nearly 40%. Among the 100 people on the list this year, 79 of their wealth declined, and only two achieved wealth growth.

Hello everyone, I am I hammer.

On November 10, Forbes released the 2022 China Mainland Rich List, and the total wealth of those on the list fell by nearly 40%. Among the 100 people on the list this year, 79 of their wealth declined, and only two achieved wealth growth. summarizes it in one sentence. Under the impact of the epidemic, economic downturn, and stock market decline, the wealth of most wealthy people has shrunk in the past year, and many companies have had a hard time.

Among all the rich people in the industry, real estate rich people collapsed the most. According to the data from the list, the proportion of people on the real estate industry has decreased from 50% twenty years ago to 10% this year.

The former rich list was crowded with real estate wealthy people. Today's list of rich people are among the few real estate rich. Many real estate tycoons who have been on the list for many years have failed this year, such as Evergrande Xu Jiayin, Sun Hongbin of Sunac and Longguang Ji Haipeng.

I have to say that this is very suitable for today's depressed real estate market. The golden age of real estate has passed and the wealth bubble burst. The real estate giants that once occupied an important seat on the rich list have also fallen from the altar with the industry.

Of course, Tiehammer is not here to sing elegy to the real estate rich people who failed the exam today. I just want to use this matter to talk more deeply about why real estate has come to this point today?

The current real estate market is still in a moderate downward trend to be precise and is facing great downward pressure. is to "continue to reach the bottom" in the words of professionals. As for when you can touch the bottom, no one knows.

And to judge the market conditions, you cannot simply look at the month-on-month data for one month, as this is easy to make empirical mistakes. Take real estate companies' sales as an example. The month-on-month increase in August. At that time, many experts said that the bottom had appeared and the market had adjusted in place. However, the data for September and October fell again, and it fell continuously month-on-month.

The latest report on the Paper client shows that as the strongest fortress in the country, housing prices have also begun to fall. At this point, housing prices in the four first-tier cities have all been loose. Especially in Shenzhen, the year-on-year decline in housing prices in some regions in September has reached 10%-15%.

First-tier cities have all had their myth that "housing prices only rise but not fall" has been shattered, not to mention other small and medium-sized cities with relatively insufficient population, geographical location, and resources.

The "50-city Real Estate Market Monitoring System" released by E-House Research Institute shows that among the 50 cities monitored in September, only Beijing and Chengdu "stop falling and turning upward", and housing prices in the other 48 cities "still falling." There are 12 cities where housing prices have fallen for more than 20 months, including Zhengzhou for 46 months and Langfang for 43 months.

In addition, the confidence of home buyers has actually been almost gone. This can be found out from the situation of residents' medium- and long-term loans (mortgage loans) expenditures in the past six months. Data from the central bank shows that in the first three quarters of 2022, the new medium- and long-term loans for residents increased by 2.32 trillion yuan, while in the same period of 2021, the new loans for residents decreased by 2.4 trillion yuan year-on-year. The average monthly increase of 266.7 billion yuan was 266.7 billion yuan.

Is the real estate market cold? There is nothing more convincing than this data. One rises and the other goes down, and the residential mortgage loans are more than half of the year-on-year, which means that the sales of the developer side will inevitably decline sharply. On October 31, data released by the China Index Academy showed that the total sales of the TOP100 real estate companies from January to October 2022 was 6095.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 43.4%.

Only when the data is placed in front of us can we have a clear understanding of the property market.

In addition, there is another unexpected fact, that is, "payment of mortgage loans in advance" is still the mainstream of the market. Financial data for October released by the central bank showed that in October, RMB loans decreased by 211 billion yuan, of which household loans not only did not increase, but also decreased by 18 billion. The increase in household loans is negative, which means that more people repay the loans in advance are more than those who take out loans. We will not explain the reasons for early repayment. Everyone must know that the interest rate for new home loans has been greatly reduced, but the interest rate for existing home loans has been slow, and many people who honestly repay the mortgage have become "suckers".So if you have money, you will pay it back in advance, which has become the first choice for many people.

Some netizens also joked that the most right investment this year is to repay the loan in advance, paying back 200,000 yuan in principal, and the interest + interest rate difference saved me a total of 220,000 yuan. This money is not as high as anything else. I paid off my mortgage early, and the monthly payment pressure has been reduced, and my life has been much better. I can be happy to think about it.

To be honest, now I’m chatting with my colleagues and friends around me, and everyone talks a lot about houses, but their ideas are completely different from those two or three years ago. In the past, we always encouraged each other to buy a house, and the most common thing was, "If you don't buy it, you may not be able to afford it." The most common words now are, "If you don't buy it, you can be cheaper", "Wait for customers to win." It has to be said that when this expectation has been formed, the real estate market shows its most real side.

Real estate, which has been blindfolded for 20 or 30 years, has been regarded as the mainstay of economic development for a long time. Why did it stop in the past two years and use a "breathable brake" method? Some people say that we have built too many houses and the real estate bubble is too big. It is time to be involuntarily.

There are many factors that affect the trend of real estate, including international exchange rate, rental-to-sale ratio, housing price-to-income ratio, M2 growth rate, etc., but I personally believe that the real core factor is actually the "supply and demand relationship" in economics. In other words, when we judge whether there is a bubble in the real estate market or how big the bubble is, it is the most direct and effective to look at the supply and demand relationship of real estate.

So how many houses have our country built in the past few years? Does the country currently have accurate data? How should this data be counted? There are unknown experts and scholars on the Internet who said that the houses built in our country are enough to live in 3 billion people, and it has long been a serious surplus. Do these statements conform to the actual situation?

First of all, "housing for living, not for speculation" has been mentioned for more than five years, and it is still persisting until now. This can explain one problem, that is, the first attribute of a house is living, and it must be admitted that only a very small number of houses in China have location advantages and investment value due to their geographical location, but this proportion may not even be less than 10%. More than 90% of other houses are actually just houses in the general sense.

And it must be admitted that the housing prices in my country are actually seriously high, not only in the four first-tier cities, but also in many second- and third-tier cities, but inflated housing prices in many second- and third-tier cities are even more serious. We have already mentioned this in previous articles by analyzing the housing price-to-income ratio. The average housing price-to-income ratio of 100 cities in 2022 was 12.0, which is 0.8 lower than in 2020, but it is still seriously high compared to the international reasonable range of 3-6.

And most importantly, the housing price-to-income ratio cannot reflect the true degree of the housing price level and the income level of residents. The indicator that truly reflects the difficulty of ordinary people in buying a house should be the "house price surplus fund ratio", which is the median value of residential housing prices, divided by the median value of household annual surplus funds. What is the value of Baicheng? The answer is more than 40. This means that an ordinary couple needs to save money for 40 years to buy a house with a median price of 100 cities. It will take 12 years just to save up to 30% of the down payment.

We often hear people say that it is difficult for ordinary working people to buy houses in first- and second-tier cities, and housing prices are decoupled from the wage income of many people. The actual situation may be even more serious. Nowadays, housing prices in the top 30 cities across the country cannot afford them even many graduates from prestigious universities such as Tsinghua and Peking University.

Secondly, according to relevant departments, real estate registration has fully realized the national networking. As of mid-2022, more than 3,000 real estate management outlets have been established in more than 300 cities and more than 2,000 counties and districts across the country.

Although the national unified basic platform for real estate registration information management has achieved national networking, there is still no unified answer to "how many houses have we built in total" until today. Why? One fact needs to be understood here: real estate registration network can only count urban commercial housing. The urban commercial housing we usually pay the most attention to is only a small part of China's real estate system.There are many types of housing in my country, including affordable housing, shared-ownership housing, shantytown renovation resettlement housing, low-rent housing, and public rental housing. Of course, what cannot be ignored are the large number of small-property houses in big cities and the self-built houses built by rural private construction teams.

So, just looking at the types of residential buildings, you can know how many houses are built across the country. It is extremely difficult. Fortunately, some experts conducted a systematic analysis of the data released by multiple calibers in the country and gave a reference number.

This expert is Liu Jin, professor of accounting and finance at the Changjiang Business School. In his release, "How many houses are built in China?" 》In the estimate report, Liu Jin observed the supply of real estate through dynamic and static respectively:

Dynamic: From 2004 to 2020, a total of 35 billion square meters were completed under the construction industry, a total of 27.5 billion square meters were completed under the social scope of real estate, and a total of 11 billion square meters were completed under the scale of commercial housing. Commercial housing is just a type of real estate, so the data under this caliber cannot be adopted.

So which one is more accurate, the construction industry caliber or the real estate caliber? The answer is: From 2011 to 2020, the construction industry has a more accurate picture, because starting from 2011, there has been less data missing from building houses through construction companies. From 2011 to 2020, according to the construction industry, a total of 26.4 billion square meters were completed, with an average annual completion of 2.6 billion square meters.

Static: According to the 2020 census results, the total area of residential residential buildings in the country is about 54.2 billion square meters, of which 18.5 billion square meters in cities, 12.4 billion square meters in towns, and 23.3 billion square meters in rural areas.

However, there are also omissions in the census data, that is, there are no collective households. In 2020, the total population of collective households in my country was about 120 million. The per capita living area of this type of population is calculated based on the per capita urban area of 39.8 square meters. By the end of 2020, the total residential area of the country was 59 billion square meters.

Finally, the dynamic and static combination is taken, that is, the total residential area data of the census before 2010, plus the cumulative completed area of the country from 2011 to 2020, and the demolition area is subtracted, the obtained value is At the end of 2020, the national residential stock is about 60.7 billion square meters, the urban stock is 21.8 billion square meters, the town is 15.7 billion square meters, and the rural area is 23.2 billion square meters.

Based on this data, real estate has obvious bubbles, whether in urban areas or rural areas: the bubble of real estate in cities is reflected in two aspects. One is the housing price-to-income ratio and housing price surplus fund ratio, which are seriously high, and are more than twice the international reasonable range. More importantly, the distribution of houses in different areas of the city is also extremely uneven; secondly, the total number of houses is seriously oversupply, with the total area of urban residential areas being 37.5 billion square meters, and the per capita living area is close to 40 square meters.

The real estate bubble in rural areas is essentially different from that in cities. Not only is there an oversupply of housing in rural areas, but vacancy is even more serious. In the future, as rural population continues to shift to cities, many rural houses will be permanently vacant. According to the population mobility data released by the Ministry of Civil Affairs, although the current speed of rural registered population transfer to cities in my country has slowed down compared with the past decade, 10 million people still "wash their feet and go to the city" every year to become urban residents. According to the forecasts of relevant institutions, in the next 10-15 years, 150 million to 200 million people will still be transferred from rural areas to urban areas. While the population is moving out, rural houses will be vacant in large quantities.

So this creates a result that cannot be ignored: the bubble in rural real estate will become bigger and bigger, and it has long surpassed that of cities. However, since rural real estate does not have leverage and there is no high price, it will not trigger a financial crisis. In other words, although the rural real estate bubble is much larger than that of towns, it has completely different natures and is basically not very harmful.

Seeing this, some people may ask, does the transfer of a large number of people from rural areas to cities mean that real estate still has huge development potential in the future? Of course not. On the one hand, there has been no shortage of housing in urban areas, especially in many suburbs, where new housing supply is far exceeding demand. Taking Qingdao as an example, the total inventory area of the inventory has been built and not yet sold, started construction and has not yet been pre-sale, and has not yet started construction is close to 100 million square meters, ranking first in the country.What is this concept? Based on the average transaction value of new houses in the past three years, even if Qingdao immediately stops supplying land, these houses will take 6.5 years to be sold out.

On the other hand, theoretically, there will be 150 million to 200 million people entering the city in the future, but in fact the data is far lower than that. Because the statistical data actually includes the separation of many people and households, Qipu data shows that the population of people and households separated in 2020 was 493 million. Many of these people still have household registration in rural areas, but in fact they bought a house in the city and settled down.

In addition, combined with previous analysis, the ratio of my country's residents' debt to disposable income in 2021 is 106.8%, which means that the leverage of the residents' sector has long been unable to increase. Therefore, when housing prices do not fall, the demand for housing purchases cannot increase significantly, and it is likely to shrink year by year in the future.

Based on the above analysis, Iron Hammer has two points to summarize: first, the era of crazy wealth creation in real estate has completely ended. The sluggish real estate market in the past two years. Some people say it is the result of regulation, but personally believe that this is the inevitable result of the industry's development to a certain stage;

There is a clear bubble in real estate across the country, and the rural real estate bubble is larger than that in cities and towns. This is an indisputable fact, and many people cannot help but believe it. In fact, when we walk around the countryside, we will find that the vacant houses in rural areas are more serious than many people think. Moreover, this situation will further deteriorate as population moves to cities in the future. And there is a high probability that there will be no reversal trend, because cities can provide more employment opportunities and social resources such as education, medical care, and elderly care.