1. It has exceeded ten thousand mountains
Let’s take a look at the path to increase sub-potassium production, from 0 to 1, 20 to 21 years, which is the most dangerous. After three headwinds, the first one was a shareholder dispute and drove away the rogue Dong Ling. At the same time, he won the lawsuit and won nearly 700 million yuan in compensation. The second battle was overseas, with the epidemic on the rise and fall, and the production was completed in 18 months. The third round, there was insufficient food and grass, and I could not get a loan, 400 million yuan in capital + 700 million yuan in compensation + operating cash flow hard top. Looking back, do you look like a poor and innocent qi-training monk who succeeds in building a foundation against the wind? Now comparing it, stable shareholders, tested management, good business environment (it can be proved by the opening of Zhonglao Railway ), 2 billion operating cash flow + 1.6 billion equity financing + bank loans, can rolling to develop the subsequent 4 million tons of production capacity. All in all, a company that has been on track and has a good management level.
Company Comparison
2. One force to reduce ten times
On the road to becoming king, the market will worry about many things, such as the potassium fertilizer market falling due to cold, the stock market bear market, the global economy recession, etc. We return to the starting point, and high growth can crush all worries. Conservative point, 1 million tons per year, 5 million tons in 26 years, and four times the production capacity in four years. According to pessimistic expectations, a ton of RMB 2,100 per ton will have a net profit of RMB 1 billion per year and RMB 5 billion per year in 26 years. Given 10 times PE, it also has a market value of 500, which is the current stock price, with a 100% return in four years and an annualized return of about 18%. Isn’t it good? (The above does not consider dividends, T operations, etc.)
initially expects
If you look at the company's latest response, 5 million tons may not need to wait until 26 years. Article 1: The current daily production capacity of Dongtai Mine has increased by 30~50%; Article 2: The additional capacity of 179 Mine has been accepted, and the increase of 2 million tons of will have a significant coordination effect with the third million tons. Three years of 100% return, annualized rate of return of about 24%!
is optimistic and is expected to be highly concentrated with the strength of
. The distribution of potassium ore in Canada, Russia and Belarus account for 70%. Potash fertilizer companies have more concentrated production capacity, and top4 can obtain 50% of global production capacity.
, OPEC+ total 23 countries account for only 70% of crude oil reserves. Who is more monopolistic?
crude oil reserve distribution
After the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the two countries are getting deeper and deeper, and the potassium fertilizer production capacity of the two Russia cannot go through Black Sea exports. What if it drags on for another year? Land transportation is very expensive, and the transportation volume is limited. To be conservative, the market price of only 400 US dollars/ton is required to continue, and everyone has huge profits. Come and read with me. The good wind will send me to the sky with its power!
In summary, regardless of the profits of associated resources (bromide, chlor-alkali ), the company guarantees a market value of 50 billion in three to four years, and sub-potassium is worth waiting for!
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