The stock market this week finally showed a wave of opening low and closing high. It can be said that the stock market in the second half of this week was still very strong. At the same time, Shanghai Composite Index also lost and recovered against 3,000 points, and ChiNext even made a wave of big rises.
However, tomorrow, the stock market will also encounter some pressure. The Shanghai Composite Index is already very close to the html January line , and the monthly line is at 3098 points. At present, the Shanghai Composite Index is at 3071 points, which means that there is only a distance of 27 points between the Shanghai Composite Index and the monthly line.
So, tomorrow, the Shanghai Composite Index will definitely encounter the suppression of the monthly line. Moreover, it is worth noting that the Shenzhen Component Index has encountered the suppression of the monthly line this week. In the last trading day, it once broke through the monthly line, but in the end it fell back.
The only strongest thing is GEM Index , because the GEM Index strongly broke through the suppression of the monthly line with a gap-high trend, but the above the GEM Index is already very close to the 900-day moving average.
data shows that at present, the 900-day moving average is at 2465 points, while the ChiNext Index is at 2434 points. In terms of conversion, the ChiNext Index is only 31 points away from the 900-day moving average, so it is already very close.
Therefore, from the overall situation now, the three major indexes of A shares are facing pressure. Tomorrow, this pressure will appear. Therefore, in my opinion, tomorrow, the trend of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets will be very important.
As long as these three indexes can break through the pressure point, the subsequent market is expected to continue to unfold. Of course, on this weekend, three signals come, so how will the stock market run tomorrow?
The first signal . It can be seen that the weekly chart of the ChiNext Index shows that its index has obviously stopped falling near the 60-month line and has not fallen below the 60-month line. Moreover, the ChiNext Index has been running above the 60-month line since April 2020.
So, one thing is certain, that is, the support strength of the 60 month line is very strong. This time, stopping the decline above the 60 month line is a good signal. At least, for the GEM, the first bottom has been formed.
And, more importantly, the GEM index actually forms a bottom reversal triangle pattern above this 60 month line. Therefore, the author believes that tomorrow and even the next market will run above this moving average.
The second signal . According to relevant data, the number of stocks in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets has now exceeded 400, which means that the stocks in the net profit account for more than 8% of all A-share stocks.
The increase in net stocks of shows that the bottom characteristics of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets are quite obvious. Generally speaking, after the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets fall below 3,000 points, net stocks will begin to increase. Previously, the author also said that below 3,000 points is a point with a higher safety margin. One of the main reasons for
is to break the net stocks. Then, this week, the Shanghai Composite Index returned to above 3000 points.
From the perspective of related sectors, these more than 400 stocks with broken net stocks are distributed among 11 sectors, among which there are still relatively many stocks with broken net stocks in the financial sector, with more than 60, accounting for a considerable proportion of stocks with broken net stocks.
3, RMB exchange rate gradually began to stabilize. Judging from the trend of the RMB against the US dollar, it has been in a downward trend before, and they all fell along the 5-day moving average , and the 5-day moving average also showed a downward trend with a large slope.
However, the situation is different now. The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar has obviously begun to fluctuate, and the 5-day moving average has also begun to move from a downward state to a flat state. Therefore, the turning point of the RMB exchange rate may have come.
Based on the arrival of these three signals, the author believes that the situation in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets will not be too bad in the future. It is unlikely that the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets will continue to fall sharply tomorrow and even next week, but it is inevitable that a wave of fluctuations will emerge.
Of course, US stock has a collective sharp drop, which may have a certain linkage effect on A-shares tomorrow, but this impact will not be very big. At present, the bottom effect of A-shares is still relatively obvious.
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