1. Macro interpretation
(1) Fubao exclusive interpretation: The week from the United States to October 7th EIA crude oil inventories were 9.88 million barrels, with an expected 1.75 million barrels, with the previous value of -1.356 million barrels. The U.S. strategic oil reserve inventory in the week ended October 7 -7.69 million barrels, compared with the previous value of -6.194 million barrels. The U.S. recorded its largest decline in EIA refined oil inventory in the week ending October 7 as of March 4, 2022. However, the strategic reserve inventory has been declining continuously. It can be seen that the United States has limited production reduction efforts to balance OPEC+, which has led to a data reflecting the favorable market. The decline in demand is divided into two points. The first is that the price of gasoline has rebounded sharply, weakening the demand for travel oil , and the second is that hurricane climate affects travel plans. After the data was released, crude oil rebounded slightly, so the rise of the gasoline inventory data should be questioned.
2. Latest news of industrial market
Scrap steel market message: Domestic scrap steel was mainly price declined, with a decline of 30-60. The arrival of scrap steel in steel mills rebounded, and the transaction of finished products was not good. We have a price-pressure attitude towards scrap steel, and is expected to run weakly in the short term.
steel billet: 13 Tangshan steel billet rose by 20 to 3,650 yuan/ton. Currently, some local and surrounding steel mills in Tangshan reported carbon billets of 3,650 yuan/ton, and Qinhuangdao Lulong Steel Plant reported carbon billets of 3,650 yuan/ton, both included taxes and left the factory. As the influence of environmental protection news gradually faded, market transactions gradually returned to demand, some downstream steel companies are in a state of suspension of production and have little demand for billets. In addition, the black series of spirals were not good yesterday, manufacturers are cautious in operating mentality, and the market's weakening pattern has not changed. However, from the perspective of cost, the billet itself is still in a loss state, so the bottom support is still there, so is expected to fluctuate stably and narrowly in the short term.
Iron ore: 14 Tangshan iron powder price is stable and weak. Mining companies are facing production restrictions and shortage of resources, but the cost-effectiveness of foreign mines exists, and steel companies suppress the price of refined powder. Shanxi iron powder price is strong. Mining companies still hold on to the goods and keep the price up, steel companies purchase on demand, and the part is mainly used to use foreign mines.
Coke: 213th Linfen first-level wet coke quenching factory with tax of 2730 yuan/ton; Tangshan quasi-level wet coke quenching factory with tax of 2720 yuan/ton; Weifang quasi-level dry coke quenching factory with tax of 3020 yuan/ton. The domestic coke market is temporarily operating stably. Yesterday, most coking companies in Hebei, Shanxi and Shandong raised 100-110 yuan/ton in the second round, and the steel mills have not responded yet. In terms of supply, the silent management time in the areas of Xiaoyi, , Fenyang, in Luliang was extended from 3 days to 5 days, and the transportation of the car was blocked. The procurement and shipment of coking enterprises in some areas was not smooth, and the inventory of raw coal in some coking enterprises was in urgent need of inventory. The number of coking enterprises in the region gradually increased, with the reduction of production at most about 30-50%. The supply of coking enterprises was significantly tightened, and coking enterprises had a strong intention to support prices. In terms of demand, the arrival of raw materials in some steel mills is not smooth, and coke inventory in the factory has declined, and there is still a certain demand for coke. However, the blast furnaces in the steel mills have gradually reduced production and maintenance, and steel prices have dropped slightly recently. Currently, the main focus is on demand purchases. The game between coke steel continues. is expected to take a certain time to implement this round of increase and increase.
3. Steel market dynamics
[Night closing list]
[Building Materials] html National line snail price on the 213th was stable and weak, with some rebounds, of which the fluctuation range was 10-40. According to Fubao statistics, 29 cities operated smoothly, accounting for 56%, and 19 cities fell, accounting for 36%, and cities rose by 4, accounting for 8%. It is recommended that when the market rises, the main shipment will be mainly shipped and the storage level will be kept low. The subsequent market may experience weak growth. is expected to adjust steadily today.
[Close] html closed on the 213th. The price of Hegang third-level earthquake-resistant large snail in Beijing market was 4,040 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan from the previous day; the price of 3,880 yuan/ton in Shanghai market was 3,880 yuan/ton, stabilizing compared with the previous day; the price of 35 city threaded steel snail in Guangzhou was 4,240 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan from the previous day;
[Predict] html national line snail price was stable and weak on the 213th, and some rebounds, with fluctuations ranging from 10-40. Afternoon data was released, 35 city threaded society database was 4,579,300 tons decreased by 215,500 tons. , the wire stocks of 1.0711 million tons decreased by 62,100 tons, and the total inventory of 5.6504 million tons; the rebar factory warehouse decreased by 108,000 tons, the wire stocks of 771,600 tons decreased by 22,800 tons, and the total inventory of steel plants was 2.8165 million tons; the steel plant production of 2.9344 million tons decreased by 77,300 tons, and the apparent demand was 3.2579 million tons, an increase of 668,900 tons over last week. The overall data was well realized. Although the thread 2301 contract is at the support level, the warehouse volume and funds are insufficient, so the market height cannot be overestimated. At the same time, the crude oil fell sharply under pressure, which will also transmit a certain fluctuation pressure. Taking into account, the market price of is steadily adjusted today. Fubao analysis is as follows: 1. The cost support is firm 2. The inventory data performs well 3. The position is insufficient funds.
is now available for Hesteel's third-level earthquake-resistant large snails in the Beijing market today, down 10 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from the previous day, and Zhongtian's third-level snails in the Shanghai market, down 10 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from the previous day; Shaosteel's third-level snails in the Guangzhou market, down 4,240 yuan/ton, stabilizing compared with the previous day.
[ hot coil ] html On the 213th, the mainstream price of hot coils in the country rose and fell steadily, with an increase of 10-40 yuan. On that day, the relevant futures fluctuated downward, and the market merchants were unstable, and the transactions were weak at high levels. The downstream purchasing and waiting and watching were strong. The overall transaction was average. is expected to be stable and consolidated in the short term.
[Cold Rolling] html National cold rolling market owners stabilized on the 213th, with a range of 10-20 yuan. On that day, futures surged and fell back to . Traders were cautious in their mentality and waited and watched, and temporarily maintained the main focus of recovering funds. The shipment volume and collection speed were not ideal. The overall market mentality was weak, and downstream purchasing was mainly based on demand, and transactions were mediocre. is expected to run in the short term.
[ mid-board ] html on the 213th, with a steady rise and fall in the national mid-board, with an adjustment range of 10-30 yuan. The market trading atmosphere is not good, and the overall transaction performance is light. Most merchants follow the market and wait and see. Considering that the current market is still unstable, some resources are relatively small, merchants mainly sell shipments, and is expected to fluctuate stably in the short term.
[ strip steel ] 13 strip steel was mainly weak and stable, North China's leading steel mills rose 20 steadily, Tangshan's narrow belt mainstream remained stable, overall transactions were weak, and the spot in China wide was slightly weak, and it is currently in a downward trend. Manufacturers' operations are obviously waiting and watching, trading performance is light, East China and South China are stable and weak, and market transaction performance is still weak. Considering that waiting and watching emotions are dominant, is expected to continue to be weak and stable today.
[Profile] 13 nationwide profiles weakened steadily. The cost-side support weakened, and the steel market sales continued to shrink after the National Day, production restrictions were serious, and inventory pressure was also high. Dealers and terminal construction units maintained restocking on demand, and overall transactions were slow, so they maintained a wait-and-see attitude. is mainly composed of stable and stable consolidation in the short term.
[Pipe Material] html Pipe prices rose and fell on the 213th, and the market sentiment was average, but the support on the raw material side was relatively strong. Some mainstream pipe factories were more willing to adjust the rise, and transactions were actually undermined. The fermentation of the epidemic in various places and the impact of environmental protection control, the demand for downstream strength was weak, traders were waiting and watching, and trading was poor. Overall, is expected to adjust steadily and narrowly today.
Source: Fubao Steel
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