Reporter of the Economic Business: Wang Haimin Reporter of the Economic Business Business: Peng Shuiping
In the afternoon of today, the market ushered in a Jedi counterattack. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index strongly recovered the 3,000-point mark. The chief of some securities firms believes that the market is expected to usher in an oversold rebound in the short term. The chief of brokerage firms said that although it is difficult to judge whether today's rise means that the market has bottomed out in the short term, the bottom has already appeared in the medium and long term.
In the past two days, track stocks have once again become the leader in market rebounds. However, judging from the market performance this year, the low-key high-dividend sector is truly leading the year. According to statistics, as of today's closing, the dividend index rose by 0.5% this year, far exceeding the monthly gold stock portfolio and A shares major indexes recommended by various brokers.
market medium and long-term bottom has shown
Today, A-share market ushered in a Jedi counterattack, Shanghai Composite Index strongly recovered the 3,000 point mark, with a full-day amplitude of 3%.
Regarding the strong rise of A-shares today, some people believe that this is related to the September social financing data released by the central bank last night that exceeded expectations.
Hongta Securities latest research report pointed out that the latest social financing data released by the central bank exceeded expectations. At the end of September 2022, the stock of social financing scale was 340.65 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.6%, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the previous month. The monthly increase was 3.53 trillion yuan, 627.4 billion yuan more than the same period last year, and it is expected to be only 2.8 trillion yuan.
Among them, RMB loans are the biggest support item, with an increase of 796.4 billion yuan year-on-year under the social financing caliber. Among them, the new loans from enterprises (institutional) institutions are mainly based on them. Under the credit caliber, RMB loans increased by 2.47 trillion yuan in the month, an increase of 810 billion yuan year-on-year; enterprise (industry) sectors increased by 1.92 trillion yuan, an increase of 937 billion yuan year-on-year. The main reason behind this is that the implementation of "quasi-financial" tools has entered the peak construction season, and the demand for supporting financing for infrastructure has increased.
In addition, the rebound in the growth rate of medium- and long-term loans in September has also attracted the attention of institutions. Tianfeng Securities' strategy team latest released views pointing out that the growth rate of medium- and long-term loans in September rebounded by 0.4 percentage points compared with August. At the same time, according to the regulatory window guidance (a further 1 trillion to 1.5 trillion yuan of medium- and long-term loans in manufacturing and 600 billion yuan of real estate financing before the end of the year), the growth rate of medium- and long-term loans is expected to rebound by 0.5% before the end of the year. Historically, except for the non-standard conversion to standard in 2013, the inflated growth of medium- and long-term loans did not bring about a significant increase in the valuation center, at other times, medium- and long-term loans basically determine the overall valuation center direction of A-shares.
Image source: Tianfeng Securities Strategy Team
However, Tianfeng Securities Strategy Team believes that the growth rate of medium- and long-term loans is strong and has a continuous recovery, that is, the comprehensive economic recovery may still require a process, which is accompanied by the process of resonance and clearing of the inventory cycles of China and the United States.
So, with the strong rebound of market today, does it mean that A-shares have bottomed out in the short term?
Chief strategy analyst of a large brokerage firm told reporters that although it is difficult to judge whether today's rise means that the market has bottomed out in the short term, it is likely to be the bottom in the medium and long term. Because the valuation of A-shares is cheap now, we only need to judge the mid-term bottom.
According to statistics from the Western Securities Strategy Team, by the end of September this year, the price-to-earnings ratios of indexes such as CSI 500 Index , Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index , Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and other indexes were at a historical low.
Image source: Western Securities Strategy Team
. The chief strategy analyst of a brokerage firm believes that considering that the previous Wande 300 non-financial bond yield gap was close to -2X standard deviation, reflecting a very pessimistic expectation, so the market has reached this position and an oversold rebound may take place in the short term.
high dividend sector has attracted market attention
Reporter noticed that with the sharp rise of A-shares today, some analysts from brokerage firms have posted research reports that prompted to buy at the bottom of just released a few days ago to show their accuracy in predictions.
However, judging from the market performance this year, the performance of the gold stock portfolio carefully planned by various securities companies every month is actually not good.
top-ranked securities stock portfolios in the year-round yield. Image source: APP
top-ranked securities stock portfolios in the year-round yield. Image source: APP
Each market APP
According to statistics, as of now, no brokerage stock portfolio has a positive yield since this year. The three best-performing gold stock portfolios in the year have yielded -1.93% ( AVIC Securities html March gold stock), -4.15% ( Shenwan Hongyuan html March gold stock), -5.78% ( Guosheng Securities html March gold stock). On the other hand, more than 30 securities companies' gold stock portfolios fell by more than 20% this year, and 12 of them fell by more than 30% this year.
In contrast, the low-key high dividend sector has quietly taken the lead this year. According to statistics, as of today's closing, the dividend index rose by 0.5% this year, far exceeding the monthly gold stock portfolio recommended by various brokers and major A-share indexes.
Against the backdrop of positive macro data, the rebound of track stocks in recent days has attracted market attention. Boosted by the sharp forecast of the third quarter report of the industry leader CATL , the new energy sector of , has ushered in a strong rebound in the past two days. In fact, the new energy sector has not outperformed the dividend index this year. Since the beginning of this year, the Shenwan Power Equipment (New Energy) Index has fallen by 18.75%, while the dividend index has achieved positive returns this year.
Some institutional people believe that today's market rebound reflects a kind of resistance that will be reversed, and bad luck will come. There are many stocks, 's dividend yield has far exceeded the bank deposit interest rate.
Image source: Industrial Securities Research Institute
In fact, the investment opportunities in the high dividend sector have attracted the attention of some institutions. For example, a related industry research team of securities companies recently sorted out and recommended high dividend varieties in the industry they studied.
Recently, a fund company analyzed the investment logic of the high dividend sector during a roadshow. The institution pointed out that in the long run, high dividends will help increase investment returns. For example, in the past 20 years, US stock has achieved good performance, among which dividends and dividend reinvestment contributed half of the US stock market, so dividends are an important long-term bull foundation in the US stock market; in addition, generally speaking, in the context of the current upward equity risk premium and the downward bank wealth management yield, dividend strategies are more suitable for long-term investors.
In addition, the defensive attributes of high dividend strategies are also relatively strong. From February 2021 to now, the excess returns of dividend strategies compared with some broad-base index strategies are very obvious. Since the fourth quarter of last year, the market has been affected by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes in . At that time, the share of many dividend-themed ETFs has increased significantly, and this style has continued until this year.
Daily Economic News
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