In ancient times, military strategists paid attention to "knowing yourself and your enemy, and never winning a hundred battles." If retail investors want to achieve the goal of successfully hunting a banker, they must first have an in-depth and detailed understanding of dealer , understand the advantages of dealer maker, and understand the disadvantages of dealer maker. During the process of serving as a banker, the dealer's tricks are often false, real, and sometimes false. Sometimes they take retreat as advance, and sometimes they take advance as retreat, which can be said to be confusing, complex and changeable. Faced with such a profound strategy of managing the market, why can retail investors only sigh and act pitiful, and eventually lose money? There are reasons for the stock market environment, capital amount, etc., but the most fundamental reason is whether you have mastered the basic knowledge and skills necessary for hunting a farm, and whether you have used scientific hunting a farm strategy on the basis of knowing yourself and your opponent.
In fact, in the process of each dealer taking the market, although their operating methods are very different, they will inevitably leave various signs in the process of capital operation. As long as they carefully observe and analyze the fluctuations in stock prices, every move of the dealer will be exposed to us.
So what investors need to do is to have a comprehensive understanding of the dealer, understand the means of entering the dealer, controlling the market, building a position, washing the market, test the dealer , pulling up and shipping, as well as the methods and techniques of retail investors to find the dealer, follow the dealer, avoid traps and scams; then you can understand the trading goals, trading methods and market characteristics of each step in the entire dealer's dealer's process; finally, you can formulate a reasonable dealer strategy from your own perspective until you achieve the final victory.
The dealer wants to control a stock, so what is its funding budget and allocation?
budget funds are a relatively clear and reliable plan and plan based on the circulation volume of the stocks of the selected target listed company and the necessary degree of control of the market. In order to achieve the market-based operation funds budget, including: position building funds, control funds, emergency backup funds , as well as the amount of funds that may be required for financing in the future, to prevent themselves from shortage of funds during the market-based operation.
From the perspective of the scale of market operations, according to the nature and type of stocks of listed companies in the operation target, there are two main criteria for dealers to measure the size of a stock plate: one is the size of the stock circulation; the other is the amount of the stock circulation market value, that is, multiply the stock price by circulating plate . Since the stock price changes, the total circulating market value of this stock is dynamic.
The market makers' funds can be divided into two parts: one is the capital to build positions, which "lock positions" at the bottom and cash out at a high level. The market makers mainly rely on this part of the funds to make money; the other is used to raise and manipulate stock prices to control the market. These two funds need to cooperate with each other. Due to their different natures and their roles, the principles of use are even more different.
(1) The funds for controlling the market are mainly based on holding coins, and the funds for building positions are mainly based on holding shares.
(2) The control funds are mainly short-term operations, while the position-building funds are mainly medium- and long-term operations. To be safe, as long as the operating funds of the dealer are controlled according to the target market price, they can use other funds to control and operate the remaining uncontrolled 30% to 40% of the shares of the target listed company as the "bottom position", and enter and exit in and out in a short-term speculation manner through repeated buying and selling, maintain the balanced operation of the stock price, and grasp the rhythm and influence of buying and selling to control the stock price, and basically can successfully operate the project. In addition, the dealer generally needs to have a special fund to deal with emergencies. These funds are generally not easily used in normal times, and can only be used at critical moments when a sudden change occurs. Because if an accident occurs and cannot be dealt with, it is likely that the entire operation plan of the dealer will fail and cause extremely significant losses. The amount of funds generally only needs to be 5% to 10% of the total funds.
In general, if the target listed company stocks that are ready to invest in for a long time, the more "bottom positions" the market makers will tend to build their own positions, the better. If you only operate short-term investment projects, the proportion of positions built by the market makers will be relatively small, and the short-term oscillation component will also increase during the rise of the stock price.
In principle, if the market maker locks in the previous position building process, the less residual circulation left over the market will naturally be, and the fewer unlocked circulating chips will be relatively few, the future trend and market of the stock price will be relatively easy to control, and the actual control ability of the market maker during the operation process will be. In this way, the market makers can naturally use relatively less funds to control the market. Even if the stock price increases several times in the future, just a little cashing out part of the stocks that make profits is enough to maintain the ability to control the market. The short-term fluctuations of the stock price will not be too large, the upward trend is relatively stable, and the upward space will naturally be large.
The actual difficulty of controlling the market during the operation depends mainly on the absolute scale of the off-market unlocked circulating chips. The more unlocked circulating chips left outside, the more investors will participate, and it will naturally be relatively difficult for the dealer to control the market. Sometimes, dealers often reduce the scale of unlocked circulating chips left over the market by asking others to help "lock positions", so that the stock market becomes relatively easier to control.
If: the price of a target listed company's stock is 3 yuan and the circulation is 200 million shares, then in theory we only need to hold 600 million yuan to buy all the stocks, but this is impossible in the actual acquisition process. Once we start collecting and locking in a large number of outstanding stocks in the market, the stock price will naturally begin to gradually rise due to the decrease in circulation. Therefore, when the dealer builds a position in the market, he usually does it quietly to avoid exogenous troubles and affects his operation plan.
If we prepare 500 million yuan in advance to take the target listed company stock mentioned above, first of all, we must secretly collect 120 million shares at a price of around 3 yuan with about 360 million yuan, so as to control the "bottom position" that accounts for 60% of the total circulating market of the stock. This is the cost of the long-term dealer (or long-term dealer) we use to be a long-term dealer, and it is also the foundation for us to make huge profits in the future. Secondly, we only need to use the remaining 140 million yuan to control and manipulate the remaining 80 million shares of unlocked circulating chips.
is based on the market price of 3 yuan at this time, accounting for only about 46% of its quota. Generally, as long as it can control and manipulate the unlocked circulating chips, the project will basically be completed. This is the cost we use to be the mid-term (or the mid-term dealer).
Next, what we need to do in our operations is to use a small amount of funds to continuously buy and sell the stock price in the process of raising the stock price, and keep the stock price going upward without losing or making any profit. The cost of this fund is the cost we use to be short-term (or short-term dealer).
Then, if the future stock price rises to 6 yuan, the market value of all stocks will have changed from 600 million yuan to 1.2 billion yuan. The 360 million yuan "bottom position" we controlled in the early stage has appreciated to 720 million yuan. At this time, as long as we maintain the stock price without a significant decline, we can get out of it safely, and huge profits can be realized quickly.
In the entire process of raising the stock price, our ability to control the market will gradually decline as the stock price gradually rises, unless we have enough funds to maintain a high stock price. During the entire process of rising stock prices, we can make profits by constantly selling high and buying low, so that the profit part of the medium-term capital volume can maintain a trend of synchronizing with the rise of stock prices. This is the real meaning of the medium-term dealer.
How retail investors find the main high-control stocks
The main high-control chip pattern has the following characteristics.
1, chip distribution is relatively dense, the chip peak distribution is clear and regular, and there are clear single-peak or multimodal distributions.
2. Chip distribution. Costs and costs in the last trading day overlap well. There is a certain pattern of crossing chips in different trading time periods. Costs are large and overlapping are good many days ago (30th, 60th, 100th day).
stock with the above characteristics can basically be defined as a state of sufficient momentum.Stocks in this type of state have good explosive power and a high probability of rising. Once they break through, it often means a higher price difference space. It should be noted here that if market is in good condition, then the breakthrough will be credible for individual stocks that have sufficient momentum. Because the market atmosphere is good, it is relatively easy for the main force to raise the stock price. At the same time, rising to a high level will also better attract retail investors or other funds to receive goods, and it may even form a high-level "change the dealer" relay, and then build a platform to create a new high. After
is in a poor market state after investing in
, you need to note that the breakthrough may be a temptation to attract more people. " false breakthrough ". However, since the main force may have already established positions, after the market falls to form a bottom pattern, it is recommended that you still pay close attention to this type of stocks to observe whether their high-level chips are locked, and whether the bottom chip distribution pattern is in line with the high-controlled chip pattern. If you have it, you can still pay attention to it again, and when the market atmosphere improves, bull stocks often come out of stocks in this type of state.
Simply put, there are three types of chip patterns in the main high-controlled high-volume: one is the single-peak dense chip form, the second is the double-peak dense chip form, and the third is the multi-peak dense chip form (three peaks and above).
(1) Single peak dense pattern of chips
single peak dense pattern of chips has the following characteristics.
1. The chip distribution shows a single peak distribution;
2. The price range corresponding to the dense chip distribution is narrow, or the price range has a smaller fluctuation range relative to individual stocks;
3. The cost ratios of different time periods are smaller and uniform, and the color intuitive distribution is more harmonious.
To better explain these characteristics, let's give an example.
Figure 1-1 is the chip distribution diagram of a certain stock . The chip distribution pattern is a single peak dense pattern (as shown in the circular mark at the top of the chip distribution area in the figure), the holding costs of different time periods overlap, the color overlap is good, and the overall shape is harmonious. The price range corresponding to the intensive chip range is from 7.10 to 7.30 (with RMB 7.20 as the center axis).
This stock cost ratio area shows that the distribution of holding costs in different time periods is relatively uniform and staggered. For example, the cost is 93.3% 5 days ago, the cost is 87.3% before 10 days, the cost is 80.7% 20 days ago, and the cost is 76.3% 30 days ago, which is decreasing in a ratio of about 4% to 7%, and the difference is small. This situation shows that the main position is a single main position, or multiple main positions are reasonable, with certain distribution rules, and there are obvious signs of control of the market.
The corresponding price at the horizontal line mark in Figure 1-2 is 7.20 yuan, and this price is near the stock's single peak chip dense distribution area.
The stock price of this stock started to stand on the dense distribution area of single-peak chips, and then stopped at 8.00 yuan. The stock price fluctuated irregularly and pulled back nearby. Then it gained support in the dense distribution area of single-peak chips, and then opened up. The arrow direction mark in
is shown in the figure. It is a wave of upward attack after the stock price is supported in the dense distribution area of single-peak chips near the 7.20 yuan price.
Figure 1-3 is the chip distribution diagram corresponding to the stock at the a mark (the mouse stays at the corresponding time at the a mark). The stock price rose to 9.49 yuan, and closed a long upper shadow line , and the volume was huge, indicating that a small wave of funds had completed the delivery process, and the remaining final goods began to smash the market. After that, the stock price fell step by step, and a wider chip intensive distribution area was formed between 8.00 yuan and 9.00 yuan, suppressing the stock price.
From the chip distribution chart on the right, the corresponding single-peak chip dense distribution peak at 7.20 yuan shown in the elliptical mark has not decreased significantly, indicating that the previous main positions have not yet completed the turnover, and the single-peak dense distribution near the 7.20 yuan price still has strong support for the stock price. After that, the stock price gained support in the single peak dense distribution area and then launched an upward attack again.
(2) Double-peak dense pattern of chips.
chip double peak dense pattern has the following characteristics.
1. The chip distribution is a bimodal distribution;
2. There are two dense chip ranges, and the price range corresponding to the chip distribution is narrow, or the fluctuation range relative to individual stocks is small, and the two dense ranges are connected at the same time;
3. The cost ratios of different time periods are small and uniform. To better explain these characteristics, let us give an example.
Figure 1-4 is the densely distributed pattern of the chips when they just showed a breakthrough pattern. From the K-line area in the figure, it can be seen that after the stock price slowly stabilized in the dense range of the double peaks, the stock price showed a breakthrough trend, and the breakthrough did not consume much volume energy, and it was easier for the main force to raise the stock price. The chip distribution area in the
graph in the figure is circularly marked area, which corresponds to the two dense peaks of the stock chips, one is around 31.50 and the other is around 29.50, with two peaks adjacent; at the same time, the cost 5 days ago is overlapping with the cost 10 days ago and the cost 20 days ago, and the cost 10 days ago is overlapping with the cost 20 days ago and the cost 30 days ago. The position distribution is relatively uniform in different time periods, and a half-maximum distribution support is formed in the lower right corner of the cost 100 days ago. Judging from the above situation, the overall pattern is in a state of breaking out after being consolidated and is about to break out, and the stock price has good elasticity and strength.
(3) Multi-peak dense pattern of chips.
chip multi-peak dense pattern has the following characteristics.
1. The chip distribution shows a multimodal distribution;
2. There are three or more chip dense ranges (generally no more than four), and the price range corresponding to the distribution is narrow, or the fluctuation range relative to individual stocks is small, and multiple dense ranges are connected to each other;
3. The ratio of cost ratios in different time periods decreases evenly.
To better explain these characteristics, we take the dense distribution pattern of three peaks of chips as an example.
Figure 1-5 is the chip distribution diagram of a certain stock. This figure shows the dense distribution pattern of three peaks of chips. The three circular marking areas in the chip distribution map area correspond to three peaks, and the corresponding cost-intensive areas are between 10.50 yuan and 11.00 yuan, 11.50 yuan to 12.00 yuan, and around 13.00 yuan (a little lower).
From the cost distribution, the chip colors are staggered. For example, it is better to overlap the cost 5 days ago, cost 10 days ago and cost 100 days ago around 13.00, and the same is true for the other cost areas. Judging from the cost ratio in different time periods, the cost was 92.7% 5 days ago, the cost was 86.1% before 10 days, the cost was 74.9% 20 days ago, and the cost was 66.0% 30 days ago, etc. The decreasing is relatively regular, and the values are not much different, which conforms to the morphological characteristics of the three peaks densely distributed. After the main force of controls the stock price of and stabilizes it on the upper edge of the three peak dense distribution area, the stock has good explosive power and waits for the main force to increase its advantage in concentrated funds.
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