This week the market is another extremely painful week, with major indexes falling. Judging from the weekly chart, this is definitely a rhythm of killing people and heartbroken, and the rhythm will basically not stop.

01-Weekly market summary

This week's market is another extremely painful week, with major indexes falling. Judging from the weekly chart, this is definitely a rhythm of killing people and heartbroken, and the rhythm will basically not stop.

Last Friday, trading volume shrank to 560 billion, which is what we call no one caring about.

From the perspective of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 and GEM , it has fallen for three consecutive days, three consecutive weeks, and also three consecutive months.

so it makes sense for everyone to be pessimistic.

This month happens to be the end of the month, so I will review the trend of the whole month.

Throughout September, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 fell 6.72%, the ChiNext fell 10.95%, and the CSI 500 also fell 7.18%. September is indeed quite tragic.

But from this perspective, the decline of the GEM this week was very small. It only stopped at a 0.65% decline.

Hang Seng Technology fell the most, reaching 19%, 5Getf fell 15%, China Internet fell 13%, chip fell 12.37%, and new energy vehicles fell about 11.9%.

Banks and real estate declined the smallest , and liquor declined not much at only 1.9%. The main reason is that the U.S. bond rose too fast in September, and the suppression of growth is more obvious. In addition, domestic economic data has not been taking action for a long time. , so the more pessimistic it is, the more he feels he is more inclined to defend in the direction of value.

From this stage, as long as anyone falls less, it is considered to defeat the market.

has a bottom line when it falls, but if it has a high growth and decline, it may be a double kill between valuation and profits, so this space is relatively large.

There is no liquidity premium in the market now, so growth will definitely be more difficult.

Thoughts: But there is a problem. What everyone must think clearly is that from a long-term perspective, can these factors really affect the rise and fall of the stock market?

You can compare the above picture and think about this answer carefully.

02-market valuation

has fallen to this stage. Most people basically don’t look at the valuation indicator, but I will definitely post it. After all, this is discipline. Since it has been formulated, it must be abide by it.

Although everyone knows this is the bottom. But my money is not enough or I have already been deeply involved in the market.

The only way to do this at this time is to resist .

market is now in the stage of making mistakes. As long as you don’t get close to others when they make mistakes, it will basically not harm you.

From this moment, people with a certain bond ratio will have the opportunity to take out bullets and replenish their positions. You see, this is the benefit of asset allocation. From this bear market, we can see how many people have not done this asset allocation well.

In the stock market, the biggest enemy is yourself, because you often make yourself smart, which is the source of the greatest pain.

03-Market Outlook

It is actually very difficult for the market to reach this stage.

has a particularly high probability of continuing to wander around randomly. Many people say wars, struggles between countries, etc. These factors will indeed affect the stock market. But our investment is really not something that can be successful in a short while.

In other words, these factors actually do not play a big role in your long-term investment. The logic of trend traders and value investor is different, and they cannot be discussed together.

Now the market has this consensus:

Everyone knows it is the bottom and everyone knows that the market is cheap, but at this time, basically, they will not take action. This is called looking long but not going long.I also see a lot of

, but I still hold 20% of the cash in my hand, waiting for the signal on the right to appear. Because no one knows where it will fall, no one is a god.

After this decline, you must understand a profound truth: The strategy that protects you is always about.

is optimistic about the market, so he added 60% of the positions to the left (including fixed investment, configuration, grid, no new record in a month, these are all strategies on the left) , and 20% of the positions are added to the right (breaking through the key resistance level). Only by setting up a position is enough to ensure that your judgment is foolproof. After each position is built, your cost is within 20% of the market's minimum spread, and it is already very successful.

cannot be bought at the lowest point. If you lose this heart, you can buy it within 10%, and you will already burn the incense.

04-Skill Sharing

What is the left side and what is the right side.

Take Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index as the market in 2018. Below the long-term moving average group, they are all on the left side, and above the long-term moving average group, they become the right side. For example, in the figure, the

weekly line is like this, so how to do the daily line? For example, in this wave from May to July, the index clearly crossed the river and had already reached the right side, but later it fell back. What should I do?

This is actually very simple. Just add the right side separately. If the momentum that crosses the daily line, you add 10%, and the momentum that crosses the weekly line, you add 10%.

In fact, I also have my own opinions on the left and right sides, after all, this belongs to the technical school. To put it bluntly, this is really a hindsight.

But if you have these things in the technology, you should also understand one thing, for example, the share ratio moving average mentioned above.

Gubi moving average is composed of two groups of moving averages, and the short-term groups are 3, 5, 8, 10, 12, and 15. The long-term groups are: 30, 35, 40, 45, 50, 60. The Gubi moving average was invented by Australian investor Mr. Dai Ruo-Gubi, so it is called Gubi line. Gubi moving average can be widely used in stocks, futures and foreign exchange trading, and can be used as long as it can be used in investment projects that can use K line chart .

Baidu

When many people see this seemingly amazing, they wonder if they can set it like this? If you are interested, you can contact me to get the code in the background to set it up.

But these things are only useful when the bull market peak and the bear market bottom. If you are in the middle stage, technical analysis is a false proposition.

As the saying goes: Just look at it, don’t believe it.

or above encourage each other.