This Monday, we were still in the long holiday, and a shocking thunder was exposed in the foreign market. Many media even said that this is "another Lehman ", which went bankrupt in the 2008 financial crisis!
The protagonist this time is also the second largest bank in Switzerland , Credit Suisse, with a history of more than 100 years. Since the beginning of this year, Credit Suisse has performed poorly in the market, with its stock price plummeting, and its current price-to-book ratio is only 0.32. And one of the most important indicators, CDS of CDS, which is credit default swap, hit a new high since the 2008 financial crisis.
The so-called credit default swap is actually the insurance of bonds. If the bond defaults, compensation can be obtained. The higher the probability of default, the higher the insurance premium. Conversely, the current surge in CDS shows that the market believes that Credit Suisse’s default is likely to be very likely.
This year, Credit Suisse lost $5 billion in Bill Huang's century liquidation case, and caught up with the most violent interest rate hike cycle in the United States. Global bond yields soared, causing Credit Suisse to fall into a crisis.
Personally, I think that the price of CDS was higher in 2008. At that time, the market environment and confidence were worse than now. I survived it back then, and there is still hope to survive it now. After all, in recent years, I have remembered that Credit Suisse or Deutsche Bank has been going on to break out in recent years, and it is now all wolf. Of course, the wolf may really come in the future, but there is no need to hype it up once. Although
is known as the "Lehman Crisis", , the US stock , as the global stock market trend, basically had no response, and Dow Jones futures were rising for a time. However, , Hong Kong stocks, , was once again led to a collapse in the big financial sector, falling below 17,000 points, continuing to hit a new low in 11 years.
When rumors of a thunder break are rumored by a company, there are generally two results. One is expected self-realization. At this time, the management generally kept coming out to deny the existence of problems, but the company's credit and financing were abandoned, and no one dared to lend you money. The situation became worse and worse, and in the end, only was really stormed .
Another type is that the management admits that there is a problem or does not agree. But I started to try my best to patch the company. It was not too late to make up for the loss of the sheep and eventually got out of the crisis.
The driving force of things is the result of the interaction between internal and external factors. The company's own handling and attitude account for one aspect, and the market's macro environment also accounts for one aspect.
In the future, whether the Federal Reserve will continue to exceed expectations rate hikes will become the focus. Whether there are peers or the Swiss government will come out to help, there are also variables.
I cannot analyze the latter, but I think the rate hike in the United States in September is the biggest impact on the market. Although there will be a 75 basis points increase in interest rates in the future, there is basically no more radical possibility. After all, the Fed's vice chairman has begun to worry about the recession, which shows that differences within the Fed have emerged. If the US inflation data improves, then I will be more confident in my judgment of this trend.
Therefore, in the future, the negative news brought by the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike to the market will also show a marginal weakening trend. Note that I am talking about marginal weakness, not that this is the bottom, don't understand it wrong.
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