Since the beginning of this year, Russia has been moving forward in difficulties and twists and turns, and has recently suffered oil price sanctions from G7 countries; Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 have been artificially bombed, and bad news has followed one after another. Coup

Since the beginning of this year, Russia has been moving forward in difficulties and twists and turns, and has recently suffered oil price sanctions from G7 countries; Beixi No. 1 and Beixi No. 2 have been artificially blown up, and bad news has followed one after another. Coupled with the impact of the global epidemic, Russia's economic development is difficult.

However, Russian ruble versus euro rose to 51.2.

Russia's economy is so difficult to be sanctioned by European and American countries, but rubles has risen against the euro. The contrast is so large that economic enthusiasts are very confused about this. Why?

is actually because everyone does not understand that currency is also a commodity, and its price is also affected by supply and demand.

Let me give you a popular science. As a commodity, the price of money is a balance point between supply and demand. When the supply is relatively stable, when demand increases, the currency price increases, that is, appreciation; when the supply is relatively stable, demand decreases, the currency price decreases, that is, depreciation.

The Russian ruble rose to the euro this time, mainly due to the increase in demand for rubles.

first, Russia is the world's largest natural gas exporter and the second largest oil exporter. After the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, oil and gas prices have been at high levels, and Russia's energy export revenue has increased.

"Although the embargo and sanctions have caused a decline in Russia's export volume, the rise in commodity prices is enough to make up for this part of the loss." said Tatiana Orlova, chief economist at emerging markets at the University of Oxford.

Data shows that in the first 100 days of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Russia received US$98 billion in revenue from fossil fuel exports. More than half of this comes from its main client, EU , about $60 billion.

Second, due to the economic sanctions of and the departure of foreign companies, Russia's imports fell. Energy income increased, capital outflows were relatively small, and the current account surplus expanded. Data from the Russian Central Bank shows that Russia's current account surplus in the balance of payments exceeded US$110 billion from January to May, more than 3.5 times the same period last year. The strengthening of the ruble has a lot to do with this.

Brother 3. After the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the Russian authorities launched a set of policy "combination punches", including raising interest rates, capital controls, trade settlement, etc., to offset the depreciation of the ruble and the increase in inflation risks and enhance the attractiveness of deposits.

fourth, according to the Financial Times cited its source on Wednesday that several major European banks have followed Wall Street , allowing customers to trade Russian debt again. The report stressed that UBS , Barclays and Deutsche Bank have all resumed allowing customers to sell their Russian debts. Consistent with similar measures from the United States' JPMorgan Chase , Bank of America , Jefferies and Citigroup . The motivation for the decision to restart Russian bond trading is not to try to profit from the market reopening, but to allow customers to gradually reduce their risks in accordance with sanctions rules.

The above points are the reasons for the rise of the Russian ruble against the euro.

Many economic enthusiasts will ask what impact the Russian ruble will have on the rise of the euro?

Under the influence of the ruble on the rise of the euro, Russia's GDP is expected to break through negative growth, and the reasons are as follows:

first, the Russian rouble on the rise of the euro is conducive to reducing domestic prices and to a certain extent reduce the inflation level of . The appreciation of the ruble can stimulate imports. When other conditions remain unchanged, the price of imported goods will drop when the ruble is up against the euro exchange rate , which will reduce the domestic inflation level to a certain extent. Data shows that since May this year, the total value of goods exported to Russia through " parallel import " has reached US$6.5 billion, and is expected to reach US$16 billion by the end of this year.

Second, the Russian ruble's rise in the euro is conducive to attracting capital to invest in Russia. When the Russian ruble exchange rate rises, domestic investors and foreign investors strive to hold financial assets calculated in rubles and trigger capital inflows. Stimulate foreign currencies to exchange local currencies, prompting the local currency exchange rate to rise further.

Data shows that in the first half of 2022, the cumulative nominal GDP completed by the whole Russian society was 69292.8 billion rubles. Compared with the same period last year, excluding the rising prices of various goods and services, the actual decrease was 0.4%.

The rise of the Russian ruble against the euro not only reduces domestic inflation to a certain extent and lowers prices, which is conducive to increasing Russia's real GDP; it will also increase domestic investment. Overall, Russia's real GDP is expected to grow positively in 2022.