Economic Observer Reporter Hu Yanming Start with the deposit interest rate below 3%, or start with the loan interest rate below 4%? Before we knew it, when overseas markets compete to bid farewell to negative and low interest rates, we are entering a low interest rate cycle.

The market for deposit acquisition before the National Day this year is quiet. On the other hand, mortgage customers early repayment are very enthusiastic. When the income of most financial products cannot reach the mortgage level, many residents choose to reduce leverage by themselves, work hard to make deposits, and reduce loans.

Wang Shuai recalled that in mid-2018, he bought wealth management products with a return of more than 5% in the joint-stock bank. At that time, many banks had one-year wealth management products, with expected yields of around 5.2%-5.26%. However, in recent years, bank wealth management no longer guaranteed capital, and some products even fell below their net value.

Wang Shuai’s current mortgage interest rate is around 5.24%, and there are few reliable products on the market with a yield of 5%. After weighing the trade-offs, Wang Shuai decided to repay the loan in advance.

Since the beginning of this year, deposit interest rates have been lowered many times. In late April, six large state-owned banks and most joint-stock banks lowered the interest rates for more than one year term deposits and large-denomination certificates of deposit for the first time, with a reduction of 10 basis points (BP).

is not only an ordinary depositor, but also high-net-worth customers have investment troubles. Mr. Yu from Shenzhen previously told reporters that in February this year, a product issued by a leading trust (Shenzhen Longgang Financing Collective Fund Trust Plan) he purchased in July 2020 expired, but it was not redeemed on time. Later communication with institutions took up a lot of his energy and time.

At that time, the reference rate of return of trust products was between 6.7% and 7.9%. The experience of the product's explosion made Mr. Yu more cautious in his subsequent investments. Trust risk events occur frequently, and the trust reference rate of return has also declined significantly. A trust product from a private bank customer of a joint-stock bank in Beijing expired, but the interest rates that the private bank account manager can provide did not meet the customer's expectations. In desperation, the account manager suggested that the customer could invest in bank shares in the stock market, and the dividend yield of the bank stock can reach about 6% annualized. But seeing the sector trend of A shares , especially bank stocks this year, customers hesitated.

Cash is the king

Lu Jie, the founder of an ice cream cultural and creative company in Yunnan, said that in the past few years, she has invested little in financial investment and mainly invested in "industry". Lu Jie, who is about to enter her 30 years old, has finally achieved success this year. Now the factory has a good profitability, and she finally has a deposit.

But when the reporter asked about the intention of asset allocation, Lu Jie said, "I don't want to invest in anything now, I just want to lie down." In the past few years after graduating from university, Lu Jie first signed up to teach in Thailand, mainly teaching local primary school students in Chinese. After returning to China after the service period, like many of her college classmates, she entered the office building and became a white-collar worker, engaged in creative planning related work.

is not satisfied with the office life from 9 to 5. In 2017, she invested 100,000 yuan with a little savings and planned to open a B&B in Yunnan with her friends. Lu Jie mainly invested in the decoration and operation after opening. The two friends were responsible for the decoration and operation after opening.

Colorful Clouds South, the scenery is pleasant. In early 2018, their B&B welcomed the first batch of guests. At that time, she felt that it was not a problem to recover her money, and even profits were just around the corner.

But unexpectedly, the epidemic hit and the tourism industry fell to freezing point. In the second half of 2020, the local popularity rebounded slightly, but it was still unsatisfactory. The last investment of 100,000 yuan was wasted - in early 2021, the homestay was facing losses, and after discussion, they decided to end the lease early. In 2021, the homestay she invested in posted a brief farewell article on her official account - "Misfortune, miserable, goodbye to the world", and officially announced her withdrawal. In recent years, when family and friends asked about the operation of the homestay, Lu Jie was very disgusted. She didn't want to talk about this matter with her friends.

In 2019, Lu Jie's parents paid her a down payment of 300,000 yuan. She took out a personal loan of 700,000 yuan and settled her home in Kunming. I bought a house in Kunming city. Standing at home on the 18th floor, you can see Dianchi Lake by looking out the window.

Life is on the right track, but Lu Jie's restless heart is restless again. She and her friends tried to open an planning company, , create their own cosmetics brands, and do luxury goods purchasing agents, but in the end they didn't make much money. When starting a business, there is no guarantee of income when drought and flooding, and monthly mortgage repayment is a problem. In the second half of 2020, parents used their savings to pay off their mortgage in advance for Lu Jie.

In early 2021, Lu Jie and her friends set up a cold drink manufacturer, preparing to build an OEM factory for cultural and creative ice cream. The customers mainly face various scenic spots and companies that are determined to build their own image. This summer, Lu Jie's business is good, and the monthly order turnover can be around three to four million. But winter is coming soon, and the market demand for ice cream is declining, and factory revenue may be affected.It takes about three million to invest in a new production line. After several partners agreed, they decided not to invest in expansion and maintain existing orders and sales first. The company's daily operations have relatively high requirements for capital flows. They insist that cash is king. At most, the company's account only purchases the lowest risk money funds, etc., and there are no more financial management plans. In terms of loans, it is enough to not want to invest leverage at present, so it is enough to maintain the current scale.

Lu Jie also saw many friends failing to invest in this part of personal income. Now that she has just started to have savings, she doesn’t want to make high-risk investments, so she still has the most peace of mind to keep the money in her hands.

There are many people like Lu Jie. Judging from the data, residents' enthusiasm for deposits has increased since this year. Central Bank Urban Depositors Questionnaire Report in the second quarter of 2022 showed that residents tend to "more savings" accounted for 58.3%, an increase of 6.5 percentage points from the end of last year, and residents tend to "more consumption" accounted for only 23.8%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from the end of last year. From January to August 2022, household deposits increased by 10.82 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.4 trillion yuan over the same period last year.

Looking for the best investment solution

On August 12, 2022, Ying Mei obtained the real estate certificate for the second house. Thinking that it has been difficult for her to work hard in Jinan with her husband in recent years, she sent her real estate certificate to her friend group and wanted to share her joy with her friends - "I've got the certificate."

The festive mood did not last long, and the news that "the down payment for second-home in Jinan was reduced to 40%" became a hot search that night. She paid a 60% down payment. While not willing to give up, looking at the dim situation of the national real estate market, Ying Mei also secretly prayed in her heart that buying a house was the right choice.

house is an "old and dilapidated" house with a total price of about 1 million yuan, with a down payment, taxes, agency fees, etc. of about 700,000 yuan. The provident fund loan html is more than 4.3 million yuan. The provident fund paid by the two people every month can cover this part of the loan, which is also not too much monthly payment burden.

"If you don't buy a house, what should you do with your money?" Ying Mei said that she and her husband usually prefer savings, and there is no big expense in their daily family. In recent years of working, the small family has gradually gained savings. My daughter is 5 years old and is about to go to elementary school next year. The ones she lives in now ranked at the bottom. Buying a school district house is now considered a necessity for a small family.

She has never thought about investment and financial management. On Christmas 2020, once when I was chatting with a friend, Ying Mei said that her money was placed in the card. She still remembered the surprised expression of her friend, "Why don't you learn financial management? Money is just watching it depreciate!" her friend asked her.

friend recommended several funds to her on the spot. Ying Mei applied for four at one go, each investing about 5,000 yuan. It was a hot market at that time, and the hot market made the stock market the focus of discussion on the streets, and the number of new investors opening accounts and speculating in stocks and funds increased rapidly. After buying

for a few days, the profits of the four products became popular, and Ying Mei was overjoyed. But the upward trend did not last long. After a brief floating profit, the return curve turned downward. Now, although there are several fund names marked with the platform "Gold Selection" behind them, the -28% and -16% share yields are really dazzling. Ying Mei occasionally took a look, then quickly exited the page and selected "Not seeing or not being upset".

According to the financial management strategies learned at that time and the suggestions of friends, it may be a countermeasure to make fixed investments, but Ying Mei doesn't want to spend any more time in it.

Since the beginning of this year, market fluctuations have hurt investors: equity funds have suffered large-scale losses, and the "fixed income +" product that is advertised as "can ride the wind and waves" has retreated beyond expectations, and the yield of money funds, which has always been regarded as "flexible and convenient", has hit a new low.

Now, Ying Mei first deposits her family’s daily income into the cash management financial management of the salary card bank. After depositing it into tens of thousands, she will buy some deposits or low-risk financial management. The goal is products in the range of R1-R2 (the risk level of financial products is generally from low to high to R1-R5).

Investor risk preferences are reflected in each product scale.Data from CITIC Securities Research Institute shows that from the quarterly changes in the scale of management in bank retail deposits, bank wealth management, public funds, private funds, , trust products and securities asset management plans in recent years, the growth and differentiation of different product varieties in the first half of 2022 was relatively obvious.

Specifically, low-risk and low-volatility products have the advantage in growth. Among them, the scale of retail deposits in the first half of the year increased by 10.1% (retail fixed deposits increased by 13.2%), the half-year growth rate of bond funds and money funds was 15.4% and 11.9% respectively, and the scale of money funds increased by 15.4% in the first half of the year. In contrast, the growth of high-risk and high-volatility products has declined significantly. Among them, the scale of stocks increased by -4.2% in the first half of the year, mixed funds were -10.5%, and securities firm asset management scale was -9.2%.

Obviously, against the backdrop of wide fluctuations in the capital market in the first half of 2022, the residents' willingness to allocate low-volatility and low-retracement wealth products has increased significantly.

Solve the wealth allocation strategy

While waiting for the market to turn around, many families are also considering asset allocation more seriously.

, and similar to the Bridgewater all-weather strategy that focuses on low volatility (i.e. a diversified asset strategy that dynamically deploys stocks, bonds, and commodities and can use to hedge tools); a target life cycle strategy that focuses on human assets; a risk-oriented stock-to-bond balance strategy; a CPPI strategy that focuses on guaranteed capital (i.e. ConstantProportionPortfolio Securities Portfolio Insurance, a fixed-proportion portfolio insurance strategy); a major asset allocation strategy that focuses on stability, etc. are all classic asset allocation strategies. Now, the time has come to test them.