Financial News on September 20th The domestic futures market closed, and commodity futures rose and fell. palm oil , methanol , etc. fell more than 3%, cotton yarn, cotton, etc. fell more than 2%, PVC, PTA, etc. fell more than 1%, plastics, Shanghai zinc, etc. fell slightly; styrene , rubber, etc. rose more than 1%, apple , manganese silicon, etc. rose slightly.
Everbright Futures : Double coke varieties strengthened, coke led the rise in the black sector
Recently, black varieties have repeatedly jumped in reality and expectations, but after the expected tightening of coking coal supply, the double coke varieties strengthened, and coke rose rapidly under the cost drive. Combined with the market rumors that spot prices started the first round of price increases, the pessimism in the early stage dissipated, and coke bulls were strong.
spot price, port quotation is relatively strong, Rizhao Port quasi-first-level metallurgical coke mainstream spot price is 2,630 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. The leading factor for the strengthening of coke lies in the price support of cost coking coal. Currently, the coal mines in the main production areas are affected by safety and environmental protection inspections, and the supply is tight. In terms of imports, due to the continuous increase in freight costs, the transportation price difference between different coal types continues to widen. In addition, steel mills expect to prepare stocks before the 11th Festival, which will increase the demand for basic demand. The current coke inventory in the coking plant is in the middle and low position. The downstream steel mills continue to resume production, and the iron and water production continues to rise, which is a good thing for raw material prices. From a technical perspective, coke is still fluctuating in the bottom range formed since the end of July, paying attention to the pressure on the upper edge of the range.
Founder Medium-term Futures : Demand improves, palm oil prices form support, and treat palm oil production areas with a volatile idea in the short term. In terms of palm oil production areas, the September MPOB report showed that the cumulative inventory of Malaysian palm palm at the end of August reached 2.09 million tons, slightly exceeding the market's previous expectations. Indonesian palm oil inventory was affected by export stimulus policies and continued the destocking process. At the end of July, palm oil inventory was 5.87 million tons, lower than 6.69 million tons at the end of June. From September to October, the seasonal increase in palm oil production is still in the cycle of seasonal increase in production, and the supply from the production area is still relatively loose.
In terms of demand, after the soybean-palm price difference widens, palm oil has a great advantage in cost-effectiveness. High-frequency data shows that Malaysian palm export demand has increased significantly month-on-month. SGS data shows that Malaysian palm exports increased by 25.2% month-on-month from September 1 to 15. The improvement in demand has formed support. In the short term, palm oil prices have been treated with an oscillating idea. Domestic palm oil arrivals have recovered, and the basis is expected to operate stably and weakly.
In terms of soybean oil production, Argentina allows soybean growers to be able to exchange 200 peso for exchange rate for exchange rate , which is far higher than the official exchange rate of 139 pesos. The number of soybean sales of farmers has increased significantly, and Argentina's soybean oil exports will recover in the short term. However, the USDA report in September has a positive support for the bean futures price. The USDA report in September lowered the yield of the new US soybeans by 1.4 month-on-month, and the inventory of the new US soybeans at the end of the period was 45 million to 200 million to 200 million to 200 million to 200 million to 200 million to 200 million to 200 million to 200 million to 200 million to 200 million to 200 million to 200 million to 200 million to 200 million to 200 million to 200 million to 200 million to 200 million to 200 million to 200 million to 200 million to 200 million to 200 million to 200 million to 200 million to 200 million to 200 million to 200 million to 200 million to 200 million to 200 million to 200 million to 200 million to 200 million to 200 million to 200 million to 200 million to 200 million to 200 million to 200 million to 200 million to 200 million to 200 million to 200 million to 200 million to 200 million to 200 million to 200 million to 200 million to 200 million to 200 million to 200 million to 200 million to 200 million to 200 million to 200 million to 200 million to 200 million to 200 million to 200 million to 200 million to 200 million to 200 million to 200 million to 200 million to 200 million to 200 million to 200 million to 200 million to 200 million to 200 million to 200 million to 200 In the domestic market, soybeans arrived in Hong Kong in the third quarter, and bean supply was slightly tight in the fourth quarter.
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