E Jun said The 6 systems of Chinese-style modernization, which embodies what the 20th National Congress of our Party said: "Chinese-style modernization is a modernization with a huge population, a modernization with a common prosperity for all people, a modernization that harmonizes material civilization and spiritual civilization, a modernization that harmoniously coexists with nature, and a modernization that follows the path of peaceful development."
Huang Qifan, former mayor of Chongqing and economist
Chinese-style modernization is a modernization of peaceful rise, a modernization of a community with a shared future for mankind mutual benefit and common development. So Chinese-style modernization, these five characteristics determine that in the development process of Chinese-style modernization, a development model in six aspects must be formed, or we say a development system in six aspects.
1. Chinese-style modern market system.
Our country is following the path of socialist market economy . The market system must form a high-standard market system. Contains two levels.
The first level: a high-standard commodity market system. It includes the entire process of production, distribution, circulation and consumption of commodities.
The second level: factor market system. It includes the allocation, pricing, circulation and use value of all aspects of factors.
It is certain that after more than 40 years of reform and opening up, a high-standard commodity market system has been basically formed in our country and is becoming more and more complete.
At the beginning of the reform and opening up in 1980, almost 90% of our products were priced and allocated by the government.
For example, a matchbox costs two cents a box. At that time, when I was the director of the Planning Department at the Shanghai Economic Commission, I remember that every week the office meeting of the director of the Economic Commission was to discuss the pricing of various commodities, and a two-cent matchbox had to be adjusted to three cents.
At that time, it had to be approved by the Economic Committee Director’s Office Meeting. Then it will be reported to the Municipal Government Standing Committee for approval, and the Municipal Party Committee Standing Committee will approve it. It also needs to be approved by the Standing Committee of the Municipal People's Congress, which means that every change in pricing has a legislative effect. If the prices of thousands of commodities have to be adjusted and determined in this way, it can be seen how rigid this economy will be.
Now I can say that there are hundreds of thousands of commodities in China, ranging from daily consumer goods to durable consumer goods to various industrial products and industrial equipment. More than 97% of various commodities are priced and allocated by the market. Market supply and demand form the entire process of various consumption flows.
Therefore, the market is the decisive factor in determining the pricing of commodity circulation, and the government only provides good services.
may have 2%-3% of the products, such as food and medicine. These commodities are basically priced by the market, but the government mostly only intervenes or allocates them. In this regard, there are still certain leading opinions on government behavior at work, so generally speaking, a market system with high standards at the commodity level has basically been formed.
What we have to make up for now is the allocation of factor markets.
The factor market is different from the commodity market. There are tens of thousands of commodity markets. In fact, there are seventeen or eight types of commodities that can be called factors in China all over the world.
For example, food is a category of factors. It may contain barley, wheat, corn, rice, etc. Then all kinds of grains and final grain products are traded in the global factor market as a factor.
Energy is a factor, and oil , natural gas, coal and other energy sources are also used as a factor in resource allocation. Raw materials are also an element. Underground minerals, such as copper ore , iron ore, aluminum ore and other ore resources are also factors. Land is also a factor, capital is also a factor, and technology is also a factor. In the current digital age, various digital data also constitute an element.
In short, there are only seventeen or eight types of global factors, but its total transaction volume is larger than the total transaction volume of millions of commodities in the world.
In the sale of any product, I paid the money, the thing belongs to me, and I used it. It could be one transaction, or two transactions. However, the buying and selling of various factors in the factor market may extend it into a transaction. After I bought it, I stored it there. I traded it two or three times and probably stored it there for three months. I traded for 30 or 50 times.
Each type of transaction in factor markets around the world is likely to cost hundreds of thousands or hundreds of billions. In the end, seventeen or eight factors make up the world's factor markets. Forward trade, futures trade, and various transaction volumes are astronomical.
Then the key element is to discover the price during the transaction, and also realize the optimal allocation of resources during the transaction. The factor market can produce five functions for a society, mankind, and countries.
First, it can make the factor market orderly and standardized; second, the pricing of factors is relatively consistent with the rules; third, due to the huge transactions of factors, it will of course lead to the concentration and diversion of trillions, tens of trillions, or even hundreds of billions of funds; fourth, the factor market will also form a center for the country and all aspects of talent gathering; fifth, factors will optimize the allocation of resources in all aspects of society and promote healthy economic development.
Our country’s factor market actually began to develop in the 1990s. Including Zhengzhou Grain Exchange, Dalian Commodity Exchange, etc. It also includes the oil and gas exchange started in Shanghai in 2008 and 2009, and the exchange established by Xinhua News Agency in Shanghai around 2010. It should be an exchange imitating the American Bloomberg.
Then the two exchanges in Shanghai have been developing for thirteen or four years. However, these two exchanges have not yet truly exerted a decisive influence on China's natural gas and oil transactions.
Because PetroChina, Sinopec import hundreds of millions of tons of crude oil and natural gas every year, they are directly purchased outside the two Shanghai exchanges and purchased from the world's exchanges and markets. The two markets that have not passed through Shanghai do not constitute the main battlefield of China's oil and gas element market.
The current world oil and gas factor market. The main trading venue. The first and second places are the exchanges in New York and Chicago, and the third and fourth places are the exchanges in London, England and the exchanges in Frankfurt, Germany.
Then the fifth largest oil and gas exchange in the world is in Singapore, which was also established in 2008 and 2009. After more than ten years, it has become the largest energy and natural gas exchange in Asia and the fifth largest in the world, with only over 4 million people in Singapore. Its own consumption of oil and natural gas is not large, but it constitutes the pricing venue for oil and natural gas transactions throughout Asia. Have important influence.
In this sense, our country still has a huge debt in terms of factor market development. It has not really kept up with the pace of reform and opening up, and has not really become a landmark hub market of the socialist market economy.
Therefore, the Party Central Committee and the State Council issued a special document in March 2020 - "Opinions of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on Building a More Complete System and Mechanism for Market-oriented Allocation of Factors." So I think this decision is a landmark document for the development of China's factor market in the next ten years. He talked about it specifically. The trading market that wants to promote China's population is the trading market for our labor force.
Land market, oil, natural gas, and factor markets of various energy resources. There are also various market funds, including the stock market, bond market, money market, bank credit, various insurances, various markets, and technology markets. Including the data market mentioned earlier, etc. The central government has made it clear that the market should become the factor market allocation and let the factor circulation market play a decisive role. E Jun said The 6 systems of Chinese-style modernization, which embodies what the 20th National Congress of our Party said: "Chinese-style modernization is a modernization with a huge population, a modernization with a common prosperity for all people, a modernization that harmonizes material civilization and spiritual civilization, a modernization that harmoniously coexists with nature, and a modernization that follows the path of peaceful development." Huang Qifan, former mayor of Chongqing and economist Chinese-style modernization is a modernization of peaceful rise, a modernization of a community with a shared future for mankind mutual benefit and common development. So Chinese-style modernization, these five characteristics determine that in the development process of Chinese-style modernization, a development model in six aspects must be formed, or we say a development system in six aspects. 1. Chinese-style modern market system. Our country is following the path of socialist market economy . The market system must form a high-standard market system. Contains two levels. The first level: a high-standard commodity market system. It includes the entire process of production, distribution, circulation and consumption of commodities. The second level: factor market system. It includes the allocation, pricing, circulation and use value of all aspects of factors. It is certain that after more than 40 years of reform and opening up, a high-standard commodity market system has been basically formed in our country and is becoming more and more complete. At the beginning of the reform and opening up in 1980, almost 90% of our products were priced and allocated by the government. For example, a matchbox costs two cents a box. At that time, when I was the director of the Planning Department at the Shanghai Economic Commission, I remember that every week the office meeting of the director of the Economic Commission was to discuss the pricing of various commodities, and a two-cent matchbox had to be adjusted to three cents. At that time, it had to be approved by the Economic Committee Director’s Office Meeting. Then it will be reported to the Municipal Government Standing Committee for approval, and the Municipal Party Committee Standing Committee will approve it. It also needs to be approved by the Standing Committee of the Municipal People's Congress, which means that every change in pricing has a legislative effect. If the prices of thousands of commodities have to be adjusted and determined in this way, it can be seen how rigid this economy will be. Now I can say that there are hundreds of thousands of commodities in China, ranging from daily consumer goods to durable consumer goods to various industrial products and industrial equipment. More than 97% of various commodities are priced and allocated by the market. Market supply and demand form the entire process of various consumption flows. Therefore, the market is the decisive factor in determining the pricing of commodity circulation, and the government only provides good services. may have 2%-3% of the products, such as food and medicine. These commodities are basically priced by the market, but the government mostly only intervenes or allocates them. In this regard, there are still certain leading opinions on government behavior at work, so generally speaking, a market system with high standards at the commodity level has basically been formed. What we have to make up for now is the allocation of factor markets. The factor market is different from the commodity market. There are tens of thousands of commodity markets. In fact, there are seventeen or eight types of commodities that can be called factors in China all over the world. For example, food is a category of factors. It may contain barley, wheat, corn, rice, etc. Then all kinds of grains and final grain products are traded in the global factor market as a factor. Energy is a factor, and oil , natural gas, coal and other energy sources are also used as a factor in resource allocation. Raw materials are also an element. Underground minerals, such as copper ore , iron ore, aluminum ore and other ore resources are also factors. Land is also a factor, capital is also a factor, and technology is also a factor. In the current digital age, various digital data also constitute an element. In short, there are only seventeen or eight types of global factors, but its total transaction volume is larger than the total transaction volume of millions of commodities in the world. In the sale of any product, I paid the money, the thing belongs to me, and I used it. It could be one transaction, or two transactions. However, the buying and selling of various factors in the factor market may extend it into a transaction. After I bought it, I stored it there. I traded it two or three times and probably stored it there for three months. I traded for 30 or 50 times. Each type of transaction in factor markets around the world is likely to cost hundreds of thousands or hundreds of billions. In the end, seventeen or eight factors make up the world's factor markets. Forward trade, futures trade, and various transaction volumes are astronomical. Then the key element is to discover the price during the transaction, and also realize the optimal allocation of resources during the transaction. The factor market can produce five functions for a society, mankind, and countries. First, it can make the factor market orderly and standardized; second, the pricing of factors is relatively consistent with the rules; third, due to the huge transactions of factors, it will of course lead to the concentration and diversion of trillions, tens of trillions, or even hundreds of billions of funds; fourth, the factor market will also form a center for the country and all aspects of talent gathering; fifth, factors will optimize the allocation of resources in all aspects of society and promote healthy economic development. Our country’s factor market actually began to develop in the 1990s. Including Zhengzhou Grain Exchange, Dalian Commodity Exchange, etc. It also includes the oil and gas exchange started in Shanghai in 2008 and 2009, and the exchange established by Xinhua News Agency in Shanghai around 2010. It should be an exchange imitating the American Bloomberg. Then the two exchanges in Shanghai have been developing for thirteen or four years. However, these two exchanges have not yet truly exerted a decisive influence on China's natural gas and oil transactions. Because PetroChina, Sinopec import hundreds of millions of tons of crude oil and natural gas every year, they are directly purchased outside the two Shanghai exchanges and purchased from the world's exchanges and markets. The two markets that have not passed through Shanghai do not constitute the main battlefield of China's oil and gas element market. The current world oil and gas factor market. The main trading venue. The first and second places are the exchanges in New York and Chicago, and the third and fourth places are the exchanges in London, England and the exchanges in Frankfurt, Germany. Then the fifth largest oil and gas exchange in the world is in Singapore, which was also established in 2008 and 2009. After more than ten years, it has become the largest energy and natural gas exchange in Asia and the fifth largest in the world, with only over 4 million people in Singapore. Its own consumption of oil and natural gas is not large, but it constitutes the pricing venue for oil and natural gas transactions throughout Asia. Have important influence. In this sense, our country still has a huge debt in terms of factor market development. It has not really kept up with the pace of reform and opening up, and has not really become a landmark hub market of the socialist market economy. Therefore, the Party Central Committee and the State Council issued a special document in March 2020 - "Opinions of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on Building a More Complete System and Mechanism for Market-oriented Allocation of Factors." So I think this decision is a landmark document for the development of China's factor market in the next ten years. He talked about it specifically. The trading market that wants to promote China's population is the trading market for our labor force. Land market, oil, natural gas, and factor markets of various energy resources. There are also various market funds, including the stock market, bond market, money market, bank credit, various insurances, various markets, and technology markets. Including the data market mentioned earlier, etc. The central government has made it clear that the market should become the factor market allocation and let the factor circulation market play a decisive role. The government can better serve such a goal, so Chinese-style modernization must build a complete and high-standard market system. It includes commodity markets and high-standard factor markets. 2. Chinese-style modernization must form a complete industrial system. The Chinese-style modern industrial system should take the real economy as the main body and manufacturing as the center. At present, of the total GDP of the US economy, its manufacturing industry only accounts for 11.5%. Then Europe's manufacturing industry only accounts for about 15%-16% of Europe's GDP. In their modern capitalist system, in their industrial system, industrial manufacturing only accounts for 10% or 15%. In this sense, their economic system is unrealistic. Chinese-style modernization cannot follow the path of the industrial structure system of the United States and Europe. We should maintain a certain level of real economy, especially manufacturing. Manufacturing is the driving force and source of economic growth for a society and an economic system. The manufacturing industry is also a guarantee for the common prosperity of the people and a foundation for full employment of the people. Then the industrial chain of the manufacturing industry also constitutes a support for national security. In particular, the development of the manufacturing industry is a key link in the transformation of all science and technology into productivity. All kinds of original innovative inventions are just inventions and creations if they are not transformed into productivity through manufacturing. It has been continuously demonstrated in natural science that if they are not transformed into productivity, they will not be able to promote human development. Therefore, manufacturing is also a key place for scientific research and innovation. At the same time, we all know that the development of manufacturing is also an indispensable environment for driving the development of other industries. Manufacturing has a direct impact on the national economy in several aspects. We believe that in Chinese-style modernization, the structure of China's economy and GDP, the proportion of manufacturing cannot be too low. The proportion of our manufacturing industry last year was 26%. The 20th National Congress report put forward an important concept. Generally speaking, before 2035, China's manufacturing industry should account for no less than 25% of GDP. By 2050, when China becomes a world economic power, our manufacturing industry must account for no less than 20%. Only in this way can long-term peace and stability be achieved. There is a logic here, if our manufacturing industry is around 25%. An important aspect of the mining industry and secondary industry that is closely related to manufacturing is the construction industry. These two aspects account for roughly 10% of GDP, which makes up 35% of the entire secondary industry. 25% of the manufacturing industry plus 10% of the mining industry, the construction industry constitutes 35% of the secondary industry. On the other hand, three specific service concepts have emerged in the modern economy. First, the trade of parts, raw materials, and various intermediate goods in the world today accounts for more than 20% of the total trade 40 years ago, and now it has become 70%; Second, the composition of world trade, trade in goods and trade in services. 40 years ago, our services trade accounted for 5% of global trade. Our service trade now accounts for 35% of global trade. Third, with the development of smart society and smart technology in our current industrial products, each manufactured product, a piece of hardware, and a terminal, looks like a machine structure, but in fact the value of the software services inside it accounts for 40%-50% of the terminal structure. For example, a mobile phone looks like a terminal, but the various IQ content, service value and software value inside it account for about 50% of the price of the mobile phone. The same is true for laptops, and the same is true for televisions and monitors. So in this sense, it is a producer service industry that is closely related to manufacturing. Including parts design, raw materials involving logistics and transportation, various sales, safety, and maintenance embedded technologies. Nowadays, trade in goods and trade in services overlap with each other. Various hardware products are embedded with various services. Then the producer services industry, which is strongly related to the manufacturing industry, will eventually account for about 15% of GDP. If 25% of a country's GDP is manufacturing, 35% is industry, and 50% is the producer service industry that is strongly related to manufacturing and 15% is superimposed on it, this will form 50% content that is strongly related to the real economy. Then the remaining 50% of GDP, including agriculture may be 56%, real estate may be 56%, the financial industry may be 56%, and trade and retail may also be 67%; various transportation and tourism services, including education, health, medical care, including all walks of life, constitute 50%. The formation of a national economic structure can embody what the Party Central Committee calls a modern industrial system with the real economy as the main body and manufacturing as the center. It is different from American manufacturing. Although the United States now wants to revive American industry and bring American industry back to the United States, there is actually no turning back. From Trump to Biden , over the past seven or eight years, there have been goals and requirements in this regard, but in fact there have been no results. In this sense, we cannot follow the path of the U.S. economy, which is based on reality. What we want to pursue is a Chinese-style modern industrial system that rejuvenates the country through industry and develops rationally. 3. Chinese-style modernization requires a complete scientific and technological innovation system. Any social technological innovation contains three aspects: First, 0-1 original innovation and basic innovation; second, 1-100, scientific and technological achievements transformed into productivity; third, 1-1 million, scientific and technological achievements transformed into productivity. After the development of large-scale production and industrialization, huge unicorns and emerging industrial systems have been formed. These three parts are indispensable. In the past 40 years of reform and opening up, the country has attached great importance to scientific research and innovation. Over the past few decades, R&D expenses have increased from 0.2% of GDP (in 1990) to 2.4% of the country's total GDP. Our proportion has increased tenfold in the past thirty or forty years. At the same time, our total GDP has increased from 3 trillion in 1990 to 110 trillion now, an increase of more than 30 times. The proportion of research and development will be increased by 10 times. Therefore, our research and development expenses have increased more than 300 times in the past 30 years. China's total R&D volume now ranks second in the world, second only to the United States. Our R&D expenses are higher than those of the third-ranked Japan, fourth-ranked Germany, and other European countries. The total R&D expenses from the 3rd to the 10th place are not as much as the R&D expenses of our country. In this sense, our scientific and technological progress and the substantial increase in research and development expenses should be said to be a major achievement, and we have also achieved many scientific research results. If we study the science and technology innovation system required for Chinese-style modernization compared with the current situation, we should say that our current situation still has three shortcomings. Although our research and development expenses are second in the world, we have not reasonably concentrated on basic development, especially 0-1 original innovative development. In this regard, our R&D expenses only account for 5%-6% of the total R&D expenses. In 2000, it was 5%, and last year it reached about 6%. Then the world's developed countries and G20 countries use it for basic development, and 0-1 original innovative development accounts for 20%. We only account for 5%-6%. Therefore, our R&D expenditures are not concentrated enough on major scientific and technological projects. In this sense, investment is relatively scattered, and therefore there is relatively insufficient investment in R&D on the frontiers of humanity and on problems that the national economy urgently needs to solve. Although we are the second largest in the world, our investment in key links, high-tech links, and basic R&D links is much less than that of advanced developed countries around the world. This is a shortcoming. In the future, China-style modernization must make up for this shortcoming. I believe that by 2025, R&D expenses in core and advanced links may account for 10% of China's total R&D, and may rise to 15% by 2030 and 20% in 2035, which is the current proportion of R&D investment in developed countries in the G20 countries. The second link is the 1-100 transformation and innovation link. Transforming scientific research results into productivity is the goal we have always admired and this has always been our requirement. But why is the conversion rate of our productivity system and scientific research and innovation system not so high? Why do we have the National Technology Progress Award, first prize, second prize, and third prize every year? Each province also has a provincial-level Science and Technology Progress Award, and the National Innovation Award also has first, second, and third prizes. There are thousands of such awards at the provincial level or above and at the national level every year. But what about the less obvious results of converting our scientific research results into productivity? We stipulate that 70% of scientific research results and patents should be given to scientists, but why is there so little concept that scientists have earned billions or tens of billions because of their inventions in the past 10 or 20 years? The main reason is that scientific research results have not been transformed into productivity and have not produced specific benefits. Your scientific research commission, even if you have 70% patent rights. If the actual benefit of your patent rights is 0. Your patent rights, even if you have 70% or 80% equity, are still 0, so in this regard, we have not converted enough. There are two reasons why is not converted enough. One is that we do not have a legal system that says whoever converts this patent right also owns the patent right. There is a law in the United States called the Bayh-Dole Act. Formed in the early 1950s, this bill stipulates that as long as any innovative invention produces results in the United States and Silicon Valley, 1/3 of the benefits will belong to investors, 1/3 of the benefits will belong to the inventor, and 1/3 of the benefits will belong to the transformer. If the transformer is the inventor himself, then 2/3 will belong to the inventor. But often the inventor has a high IQ, he can make breakthroughs, and he can create breakthroughs at a certain point. But transformation requires more emotional intelligence. Understanding social realities, understanding social needs, and understanding how this high technology can be transformed into productivity requires various interdisciplinary knowledge backgrounds. In this sense, many transformations are not actually transformed by the inventor. The inventor continues to play to his strengths, and after one invention he makes a second invention, the transformer continues to transform the inventor's achievements into productive forces. In developed countries in Europe and the United States, generally speaking, not 100% of all inventions and creations will be converted into productivity. The average conversion rate is 40%-50%. Then some scientific inventions and creations may not be transformed into productivity even after 100 or 200 years. We cannot rush for quick success, but we need to seize the day and turn our inventions into productive forces. So if the conversion rate in Europe and the United States is 40-50%, what is the conversion rate of our domestic scientific research achievements and basic inventions in recent years into productivity? Only a dozen percent. One of the important reasons for the low conversion rate is the lack of a Bayh-Dole Act. We may have established many incubators, science and technology innovation centers, and science and technology parks, all hoping to transform scientific and technological achievements into productivity, and then found many inventive and creative scientists to come to the incubators to study the transformation issue. But in fact, killing a chicken with a bull's-eye is too much. There is a lack of a truly transformational system, so a concept like the Bayh-Dole Act needs to be added. does not attribute 70% of the property rights of scientific achievements to the inventor. In fact, you invent 30% and convert 30%. Then in the end, this society will transform scientific research results into productivity. It has become a common practice and formed a trend, and ultimately the entire social investors, inventors and converters will benefit together. The third link is the science and technology that has been transformed into productivity. How to invest on a large scale to form a large-scale enterprise, large-scale productivity, and form a unicorn. This requires capital market such as Science and Technology Innovation Board . The acquisition and merger of listed companies requires the investment process at different stages of our various private equity funds , venture capital funds, and ABC rounds. In recent years, our country’s Science and Technology Innovation Board has been launched, and various private equity funds and venture capital funds have formed a baton. It is already starting to move in this direction. I believe that in the next ten years, China’s 0-1 investment ratio will catch up with the 20% ratio of the European and American G20 countries. I believe that in the next ten years, China’s conversion rate of scientific research results will also catch up with the world average. 30% or even 40-50% of the results every year can be converted into productivity. also believes that our Science and Technology Innovation Board, private equity funds, and industrial funds can unearth more unicorns in the capital market, allowing us to form a complete virtuous cycle of scientific and technological innovation system. 4. Chinese-style modernization also requires the formation of a city cluster with healthy, harmonious and healthy development along the coast and inland. We can say that China's urban agglomerations are mainly along the coast, the three urban agglomerations of the Yangtze River Delta, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao, as well as dozens of coastal open cities along the coast. Then these seaport cities formed by the maritime economy and maritime trade over more than 300 years of industrial civilization form a coastal urban agglomeration with the seaport city as the center. Our inland is thousands of kilometers away from the coast, and the openness of the coast has been difficult to radiate to the inland in the past few decades and centuries. The benefits of this gradient are very poor. But in the past 10 years, China has launched the "One Road, One Belt" initiative. The most important thing about this is not only the construction of a China-Europe railway , but also the most important thing is that it has changed the situation in which the maritime economic belt has dominated the world since industrial civilization. "One Belt and One Road" is a new pattern of sea power economy and land power economy, seaport cities and land port cities, a two-pronged approach, flying together, will appear in the world. 200 years ago, there was a book called "World Island", which talked about a concept, because two or three hundred years ago, there were five continents and four oceans in the world, and only Europe and Asia were connected to each other into one continent. This continent is called the World Island on the globe. At that time, other places, whether it was America or Africa or other places, were wild lands. The real center of the world is the World Island formed by the Eurasian Continental Bridge. This world accounts for 60% of world trade, 60% of population, and 60% of GDP. It is the center of the entire world. After 300 years of maritime economy and maritime culture, countries in this world no longer trade with each other, because large-scale land-based transportation has not yet developed. So now we are talking about the "One Belt, One Road", which actually connects the land rights of this world island with railways and highways. In this sense, the most important strategic significance of the “Belt and Road Initiative” is that it has changed the world, changed the unipolar culture of maritime economy and maritime trade, and formed a two-pronged trade system of seaports and land ports. Under such a trade system, we can say that the three coastal urban agglomerations will continue to benefit from the influence of the marine economy, seaport economy, sea power culture, and sea power trade and continue to develop. But inland Xi'an, Chengdu, Chongqing, Zhengzhou, Wuhan, Changsha, as well as Kunming and Dali in Yunnan in the southwest, as well as Nanning and Guiyang, they will benefit from the development of dry port economy and land rights trade, driven by the development of the Silk Road economic belt and dry port trade in the Belt and Road Initiative. So how much will this dry port economy ultimately affect world trade? In other words, how much does it affect China’s trade? At present, China's import and export trade is more than 6 trillion US dollars, and 20%, which is more than 1 trillion US dollars, is brought about by air transportation. The other nearly 5 trillion U.S. dollars are all maritime, because there is still very little land-based trade. However, since the China-Europe Railway, there are three west-to-north exports. As of last year, there were 15,000 trains. Each train has 100 containers and 100 wagons. The total is 1.5 million containers, and one container is 100,000 US dollars. China-Europe railway transportation trade volume last year was US$150 billion, accounting for 1/4 of the total China-Europe trade of more than 600 billion US dollars.In another 10 years, if these railways double, China-Europe trade may reach US$300 billion. 10 years from now, perhaps 800 to 900 billion U.S. dollars, land rights trade is more than 300 billion, sea rights is also more than 300 billion, and about 200 billion more are aviation trade. Of course, these hundreds of billions of dollars will drive Zhengzhou, Harbin, Shenyang, and inland Xi'an, Urumqi, etc. On the other hand, our country is still developing the southbound channel. The southbound passage has two scopes, one is from Chongqing to Guangxi, and the rail-sea combined transport is to Singapore. There is also the South Asia Railway, which has three lines, one goes through Vietnam, one goes through Laos , and one goes to Myanmar. Of these three railways, Vietnam Railway has been repaired in 2014, and half of the railway to Laos has been repaired.
Last year, the top leaders attended the opening ceremony of the China-Laos Railway . Laos used to go through Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore. These three railways, in theory, when each railway finally reaches transportation status, it may have at least 10,000 boxes a year, and the three railways are 30,000 boxes. Roughly $300 billion in trade volume.
Today, China and EU 10 countries - 10 countries in South Asia, have a trade of 800 billion US dollars. In addition to more than 100 billion US dollars transported by air, more than 600 billion US dollars are transported by sea and make a big circle to coastal areas. In turn, Chinese goods are also transported from the coast to Southeast Asia.
Southeast Asia has a 5,000-kilometer border with our southwest region. It is absolutely possible to have a highway or a railway to go directly there. That place is only a short distance away, hundreds of kilometers or thousands of kilometers away, and it has radiated to the entire southwestern and central regions of China. Why go around a big circle of 10,000 kilometers? The journey is twice as long and very inefficient.
In this sense, the South Asian railway right-of-way economy will also change the development of inland city clusters in Kunming, Dali, Yunnan, Nanning, Guangxi, including Chengdu and Chongqing, and the development of inland dry port cities. The “One Belt and One Road” initiative has changed China’s trade pattern, making both the seaport economy and the land port economy work together.
“One Belt, One Road” has also changed the entire world trade pattern. From the transformation of marine civilization more than 300 years ago into the exploration of the two-way development of marine civilization and land civilization, Chinese-style modern urban agglomerations will appear. Coastal seaport urban agglomerations will continue to develop, and inland land-port urban agglomerations will develop with the development of the "Belt and Road". This is the Chinese-style modern urban agglomeration structure.
Land port urban areas and seaport urban agglomerations have similarities, but they also have different internal structures. Some books are devoted to this aspect.
5. Chinese-style modernization must address rural revitalization, rural prosperity, and narrow the gap between urban and rural areas. Maintaining green mountains and green waters is the natural feature of mountains of gold and silver.
China’s rural development needs to solve two things.
The first is the gap between urban and rural areas, and the second is the gap between east and west.
The reason why it is very important is because of the natural endowment. From Harbin to Kunming, there is a straight line. The southeast side of this straight line receives 1000-1800 mm of rainfall every year, and the northwest side receives 200-800 mm of rainfall. Due to the small amount of water, the northwest side is short of rain and water all year round.
Under such circumstances, it is impossible for the northwest to cultivate agriculture as intensively as the southeast coast. It is also difficult for the northwest to have urban economic management and all walks of life like the southeast coast. This struggle with the natural world is really not a problem of institutional mechanisms. It does not mean that coastal leading cadres and coastal business operation methods can be solved by transplanting them to the west.
In the west, we need to use scientific and technological productivity. China's western development in the past 20 years has essentially used five "big" projects.
1. The large-scale development project in the western region must be a large-scale capital investment, ranging from a few billions to tens of billions or hundreds of billions;
4. 2. Since it is a large capital, it means there are large enterprise groups, whether state-owned or private, they are all operated by national-level large groups;
三, this kind of large capital and large enterprise operation is a high-tech modern technology;
四, covering a large market;
五, it must be a large system engineering supporting system.
So you can see that if you engage in agriculture in the west, it may be more like Israel greenhouses. A greenhouse costs 300,000 yuan per mu of land, and the output per mu of land reaches 50,000 yuan per year, which is relatively stable. Our coastal investment is small, the annual output is only about 1,000 yuan, and cash crops are 2,000 to 3,000 yuan, which can have 20 times the output. So in the end, if you plant 10,000 acres of greenhouse vegetables, you may need to invest 3 billion, an investment that can be recovered in five or six years, and then continue to operate, and save water and labor. It is almost automated.
Therefore, this kind of project is in line with the characteristics of less people and more land, which is the Gobi Desert and drought. No crops can grow without water, but this space can be used to build greenhouses and drip irrigation.
and now we are talking about solar energy. Now Qinghai has built a 700-square-kilometer solar power plant. With an installed capacity of 40 million kilowatts and 1,500 hours a year, a few cents can amount to tens of billions, which can increase Qinghai's GDP.
We can imagine that there are 1.6 million square kilometers of desert in the five northwest provinces of China. As long as the 40,000 square kilometers of it are covered with solar energy, 8 trillion kilowatt-hours of electricity can be generated a year. China's current thermal power stations with an installed capacity of 1.4 billion kilowatts cost 20 cents per unit, and 8 trillion kilowatt-hours of electricity are equivalent to 1.61 trillion. The combined population of the five northwest provinces is less than 100 million, and the per capita GDP is almost 20,000 yuan.
There are also other industries, so it is entirely possible to follow the concept of the five major projects. The per capita GDP may exceed the per capita in the east. Just like the Arab region, which is full of desert but has oil. The Arab per capita GDP is richer than Europe, the United States and the West.
In this sense, we can see that due to the natural endowments of the northwest and western China, based on the concept of the southeastern region, it may take 10 to 20 years to still have a gap of two or three times compared with the eastern region. We call it regional difference; but if we follow the five major projects promoted in the past 20 years, it is entirely possible that in more than ten years, the per capita income of the western region may exceed that of the eastern region.
As you have seen, in 2000, when the western development began, the gap between the east and west was 1:3.6, and now it is 1:2. I absolutely believe that in more than ten years, the gap between the east and the west will become 1:1, and even the west will be higher than the east. This means that the struggle against heaven and nature must rely on modern productive forces and the centralized and unified system and will of the country to advance.
We are currently engaged in the development of the western region with the "West-to-East Gas Transmission", "West-to-East Electricity Transmission", "Ultra-High Voltage Direct Current Transmission and Transformation System", or for example what we are talking about now, "Eastern Numbers and Western Calculations", etc. Various engineering projects embody these five "bigs" - that is, big technology, big capital, big enterprises, big markets, and large system engineering matching.
On the other hand, in our southeastern region, the rural areas are now much better than in the northwest, and the gap between urban and rural areas is still relatively low. There is a problem here, that is, we seem to stipulate that rural farmers can only engage in agriculture in the countryside.
In the 1980s and 1990s, farmers engaged in township and village enterprises. They felt that township and village enterprises were seriously polluting, consumed a lot of resources, and had little disparity. Later, almost all township and village enterprises were closed down in the new century. Each province had a township enterprise bureau under the Economic Commission in the 1980s and 1990s. Now I can say that 31 provincial township enterprise bureaus are gone.Does this mean that farmers in our rural areas cannot engage in industrial services other than agriculture?
Zhejiang people have given us a revelation of common prosperity. If you go to Zhejiang and visit the village communities, brigades, towns and grassroots below the county level, you will find that almost every village in Zhejiang is If there are 300 households inside, 270 of these 300 farmers may have their own building. The first floor is a small workshop-style processing factory, the second floor is the master's bedroom, the third floor is for children, and the fourth and fifth floors are where migrant workers live.
There are at least 500,000 to 600,000 farmers in our central and western regions. They do not go to work in the cities of Ningbo, Hangzhou, or Wenzhou, but work in rural areas and farmers' homes in Zhejiang. They are also doing industrial work, but they live in farmers' homes. Each household hires three, four or five migrant workers, one for each village and one township, to produce the products of its own primary industry.
Deep processing is not about ore mining or deep processing, nor is it about power plants, machine factories, or steel plants. It is all related to the primary industry and deep processing of the primary industry, such as making silk deep processing products. In short, what we do is deep processing related to the local primary industry, and the price is high, and then we do it like one village, one product, one township! How does
solve the procurement problem? You are now in the countryside of Zhejiang. You can see the eldest brother of dozens of farmers from hundreds, thousands, or tens of thousands of households sitting in a room, doing live broadcasts to sell goods. He only brings the products he makes at home, and promotes them to all over the country on the video. Once there is an order, it is sent to the workshop for production. How was
shipped? Now every village in Zhejiang is connected to expressways and high-grade roads. With just one phone call, logistics companies and couriers in the city came to take away his goods and shipped them to all parts of the country in two days.
When purchasing raw materials, if you need to come from outside, it is also express delivery. Therefore, when the Internet is combined with rural agriculture, it becomes rural 1+2+3. In other words, the deep processing of agricultural products is an industry and a secondary industry, and the sales of the products are tertiary industry 1+2+3, 6 secondary industries. This rural area has become a place where 6 industries and 123 industries are concentrated.
If China’s agriculture sells more than 1 trillion kilograms of grain a year, and if it sells for 2 trillion yuan, this deeply processed product will become 4 trillion yuan if it is further processed. When it is sold, the price difference may become 6 trillion yuan. China's farmers make a living, and the GDP they produce only accounts for 6% of China's 100 trillion GDP.
If 1+2+3 comes together, it will no longer be 6%, but 18% or 20%. At this time, the labor income of these same farmers has increased a lot, so I went to see at least 30 various enterprises run by villages below the level of rural towns in Zhejiang. Their captains and village chiefs did not engage in industry, so they became just another contractor. That is, two hundred and dozens of farmers. The contracted farmland they originally owned was leased and entrusted to this captain, who is responsible for agriculture. He then went to find dozens or hundreds of migrant workers from the mainland to prepare the land of hundreds or thousands of acres. Brigade leaders, migrant workers, and farmers also receive a certain amount of rent.
This is a very important part of the common prosperity of rural areas, that is, it allows farmers to transform from the entire development of agriculture into agriculture, industry, and service industries. However, this procurement, processing, and sales is based on local conditions. It does not mean that farmers should engage in urban industry in rural areas, nor should they engage in urban service industries with hundreds of industries, and integrate procurement, processing, and sales.
In Japan, it is called the sixth industry. It can even be said that any company that deeply processes local agricultural products and sells services should be exempted from tax. In fact, throughout China, since 2005, there have been no tax offices in rural China. Our taxation exists in more than 2,000 counties and more than 30,000 towns, and each town has a tax office.
After the current agricultural tax exemption, tens of thousands of tax offices in towns have been abolished.It is impossible for the tax agency in the city to go to the countryside. In the future, farmers will go to the second floor to engage in industry and the first floor to engage in live broadcast agency sales. How will taxes be collected for your services? It is a tax-free system, so people in Zhejiang become rich, and rural areas become rich in cities. Farmers do not want to work in the city.
The model of common prosperity is in Zhejiang, and it is no exaggeration at all. I think that Chinese-style modernized rural areas across the country should be based on this 1+2+3, this model of classified development based on local conditions. 1+2+3 in
region can be developed according to local conditions. This makes their businesses have higher added value, and in this sense forms Chinese-style modernization, without destroying the mountains and rivers of rural areas, polluting the environment, or turning them into resource consumption areas.
6. Chinese-style modernization should be a dual-circulation pattern of internal circulation and external circulation.
is a new dual-circulation pattern with internal circulation as the main body and internal and external circulation reinforcing each other. This means that China's opening-up will not be narrowed, but that its future opening-up will be wider-area opening-up and higher-level opening-up. In this sense, the opening up of Chinese-style modernization will have five new characteristics in the future.
First, from the past few decades, we have focused on encouraging exports and export-oriented export trade has transformed into "encouraging both exports and imports, striving to reduce tariffs and increase imports." Finally, our imports and exports are balanced in both directions, and we do not pursue excessive surpluses. We require a balance of imports and exports, which is a change.
The second change is that our regional opening-up will be based on coastal opening-up and coastal opening-up in the past few decades. After the last three to five years, the gradient will shift from the coastal areas to the central and western regions. This open model will be transformed into simultaneous development in the east, west, south, north, and middle in the future. If there are any development measures for
, they will either not be pushed or will be carried out simultaneously once they are launched. There are now 21 provinces in the country with free trade pilot zones, 8 in the central, 7 in the east, and 6 in the west. Counting Hainan Island in the east, there are 8, which is relatively evenly distributed. Similarly, when it comes to new zones, there were only two in Shanghai and Tianjin in the 1990s. Later, there were 17, with 5 in the east, middle, and west, an increase of 15.
We understand the opening-up measures as an institutional arrangement, which has nothing to do with geographical location. Therefore, the initial opening-up was mainly along the coast, but now the opening-up across China is synchronous. This also conforms to the rules of the world.
For example, in Europe, Germany is inland and not close to the sea. Who can say that Germany is not as open as Spain? So China has now entered this realm.
Third, China's opening up has been more open to Sino-foreign joint ventures in industry, commerce, real estate, construction and other industries in the past. Now it is all-round, wide-area and multi-channel development, and the service industry and service trade are open together. Industry, commerce and finance, service trade, education, health, culture, and the digital economy are all opening up simultaneously, and the negative list for opening up has been greatly reduced. The smaller the negative list is, the higher the degree of development will be.
Fourth, China’s opening up has changed from the opening up of capital, trade volume, and flow in the past to the opening up of institutions, rules, and regulations. This opening makes our current opening closer and closer to the open environmental requirements of the WTO and free trade pilot zones, making our country's open environment more and more international, legal, and market-oriented.
Fifth, China’s opening up has passively integrated into the world trade system and various systems and rules of the world in the past, and then used international institutional rules to force our domestic reforms. This has been the state of opening up in the past few decades.
In addition to continuing to integrate into various rule systems around the world, we are also actively promoting the reform and restructuring of the world's rule systems.
For example, on the “One Belt, One Road” initiative, we actually advocated an important restructuring, which is to transform the institutional rules formed by the world’s seaport economy and sea power civilization over the past 300 years into a sea power civilization and land power culture. It is very important to understand that the "One Belt, One Road" initiative is not simply about establishing a close resource-complementary and cooperative relationship with more than 100 countries in terms of trade, investment, etc.
In essence, it is to change the 300-year-old European and American-led sea power civilization and turn it into a land power civilization that has returned to the world island. With the addition of the four oceans and five continents, the sea power civilization is inevitable. A two-pronged approach is the most important. The various regulations we propose along the Belt and Road Initiative will affect how the entire world trades.
At the same time, we are also actively integrating into bilateral and multilateral free trade agreements. We have implemented RCEP with Asia this year. Don’t think that it was signed the year before and will take effect this year.
You must know that China has been signing contracts with 13 countries for 10 years. During these 10 years, we have signed contracts with all 13 countries one by one.
If you think so, we have taken great pains. To build an RCEP, you need to sign with each of the dozen member countries. Everyone is in charge of negotiations in different places, and everyone is in charge of signing in different places.
We are now further promoting cpttp. Of course, we are also working on the China-EU Investment Agreement with Europe. In short, in this sense, our opening up is proactive, not passive. It is a process in which we continue to play a role at the center of the world's commercial and economic stage.
Therefore, the peaceful rise of China-style modernization, the common development of the world, and the common development of a community with a shared future for mankind have been said and done, and will continue to develop in this way.
The above are the six systems of Chinese-style modernization that I want to talk about. They embody what the 20th National Congress of our Party said: "Chinese-style modernization is a modernization with a huge population, a modernization with common prosperity for all people, a modernization that harmonizes material civilization and spiritual civilization, a modernization that harmoniously coexists with nature, and a modernization that follows the path of peaceful development."
If 25% of a country's GDP is manufacturing, 35% is industry, and 50% is the producer service industry that is strongly related to manufacturing and 15% is superimposed on it, this will form 50% content that is strongly related to the real economy.
Then the remaining 50% of GDP, including agriculture may be 56%, real estate may be 56%, the financial industry may be 56%, and trade and retail may also be 67%; various transportation and tourism services, including education, health, medical care, including all walks of life, constitute 50%. The formation of a national economic structure can embody what the Party Central Committee calls a modern industrial system with the real economy as the main body and manufacturing as the center.
It is different from American manufacturing. Although the United States now wants to revive American industry and bring American industry back to the United States, there is actually no turning back. From Trump to Biden , over the past seven or eight years, there have been goals and requirements in this regard, but in fact there have been no results.
In this sense, we cannot follow the path of the U.S. economy, which is based on reality. What we want to pursue is a Chinese-style modern industrial system that rejuvenates the country through industry and develops rationally.
3. Chinese-style modernization requires a complete scientific and technological innovation system.
Any social technological innovation contains three aspects:
First, 0-1 original innovation and basic innovation;
second, 1-100, scientific and technological achievements transformed into productivity;
third, 1-1 million, scientific and technological achievements transformed into productivity. After the development of large-scale production and industrialization, huge unicorns and emerging industrial systems have been formed.
These three parts are indispensable. In the past 40 years of reform and opening up, the country has attached great importance to scientific research and innovation. Over the past few decades, R&D expenses have increased from 0.2% of GDP (in 1990) to 2.4% of the country's total GDP. Our proportion has increased tenfold in the past thirty or forty years.
At the same time, our total GDP has increased from 3 trillion in 1990 to 110 trillion now, an increase of more than 30 times. The proportion of research and development will be increased by 10 times.
Therefore, our research and development expenses have increased more than 300 times in the past 30 years. China's total R&D volume now ranks second in the world, second only to the United States. Our R&D expenses are higher than those of the third-ranked Japan, fourth-ranked Germany, and other European countries. The total R&D expenses from the 3rd to the 10th place are not as much as the R&D expenses of our country.
In this sense, our scientific and technological progress and the substantial increase in research and development expenses should be said to be a major achievement, and we have also achieved many scientific research results.
If we study the science and technology innovation system required for Chinese-style modernization compared with the current situation, we should say that our current situation still has three shortcomings. Although our research and development expenses are second in the world, we have not reasonably concentrated on basic development, especially 0-1 original innovative development.
In this regard, our R&D expenses only account for 5%-6% of the total R&D expenses. In 2000, it was 5%, and last year it reached about 6%. Then the world's developed countries and G20 countries use it for basic development, and 0-1 original innovative development accounts for 20%. We only account for 5%-6%. Therefore, our R&D expenditures are not concentrated enough on major scientific and technological projects.
In this sense, investment is relatively scattered, and therefore there is relatively insufficient investment in R&D on the frontiers of humanity and on problems that the national economy urgently needs to solve. Although we are the second largest in the world, our investment in key links, high-tech links, and basic R&D links is much less than that of advanced developed countries around the world. This is a shortcoming.
In the future, China-style modernization must make up for this shortcoming. I believe that by 2025, R&D expenses in core and advanced links may account for 10% of China's total R&D, and may rise to 15% by 2030 and 20% in 2035, which is the current proportion of R&D investment in developed countries in the G20 countries.
The second link is the 1-100 transformation and innovation link.
Transforming scientific research results into productivity is the goal we have always admired and this has always been our requirement. But why is the conversion rate of our productivity system and scientific research and innovation system not so high?
Why do we have the National Technology Progress Award, first prize, second prize, and third prize every year? Each province also has a provincial-level Science and Technology Progress Award, and the National Innovation Award also has first, second, and third prizes. There are thousands of such awards at the provincial level or above and at the national level every year. But what about the less obvious results of converting our scientific research results into productivity?
We stipulate that 70% of scientific research results and patents should be given to scientists, but why is there so little concept that scientists have earned billions or tens of billions because of their inventions in the past 10 or 20 years?
The main reason is that scientific research results have not been transformed into productivity and have not produced specific benefits. Your scientific research commission, even if you have 70% patent rights. If the actual benefit of your patent rights is 0. Your patent rights, even if you have 70% or 80% equity, are still 0, so in this regard, we have not converted enough. There are two reasons why
is not converted enough.
One is that we do not have a legal system that says whoever converts this patent right also owns the patent right.
There is a law in the United States called the Bayh-Dole Act. Formed in the early 1950s, this bill stipulates that as long as any innovative invention produces results in the United States and Silicon Valley, 1/3 of the benefits will belong to investors, 1/3 of the benefits will belong to the inventor, and 1/3 of the benefits will belong to the transformer. If the transformer is the inventor himself, then 2/3 will belong to the inventor.
But often the inventor has a high IQ, he can make breakthroughs, and he can create breakthroughs at a certain point. But transformation requires more emotional intelligence. Understanding social realities, understanding social needs, and understanding how this high technology can be transformed into productivity requires various interdisciplinary knowledge backgrounds.
In this sense, many transformations are not actually transformed by the inventor. The inventor continues to play to his strengths, and after one invention he makes a second invention, the transformer continues to transform the inventor's achievements into productive forces.
In developed countries in Europe and the United States, generally speaking, not 100% of all inventions and creations will be converted into productivity. The average conversion rate is 40%-50%. Then some scientific inventions and creations may not be transformed into productivity even after 100 or 200 years. We cannot rush for quick success, but we need to seize the day and turn our inventions into productive forces.
So if the conversion rate in Europe and the United States is 40-50%, what is the conversion rate of our domestic scientific research achievements and basic inventions in recent years into productivity? Only a dozen percent. One of the important reasons for the low conversion rate is the lack of a Bayh-Dole Act.
We may have established many incubators, science and technology innovation centers, and science and technology parks, all hoping to transform scientific and technological achievements into productivity, and then found many inventive and creative scientists to come to the incubators to study the transformation issue. But in fact, killing a chicken with a bull's-eye is too much. There is a lack of a truly transformational system, so a concept like the Bayh-Dole Act needs to be added.
does not attribute 70% of the property rights of scientific achievements to the inventor. In fact, you invent 30% and convert 30%. Then in the end, this society will transform scientific research results into productivity. It has become a common practice and formed a trend, and ultimately the entire social investors, inventors and converters will benefit together.
The third link is the science and technology that has been transformed into productivity. How to invest on a large scale to form a large-scale enterprise, large-scale productivity, and form a unicorn.
This requires capital market such as Science and Technology Innovation Board . The acquisition and merger of listed companies requires the investment process at different stages of our various private equity funds , venture capital funds, and ABC rounds.
In recent years, our country’s Science and Technology Innovation Board has been launched, and various private equity funds and venture capital funds have formed a baton. It is already starting to move in this direction. I believe that in the next ten years, China’s 0-1 investment ratio will catch up with the 20% ratio of the European and American G20 countries. I believe that in the next ten years, China’s conversion rate of scientific research results will also catch up with the world average. 30% or even 40-50% of the results every year can be converted into productivity.
also believes that our Science and Technology Innovation Board, private equity funds, and industrial funds can unearth more unicorns in the capital market, allowing us to form a complete virtuous cycle of scientific and technological innovation system.
4. Chinese-style modernization also requires the formation of a city cluster with healthy, harmonious and healthy development along the coast and inland.
We can say that China's urban agglomerations are mainly along the coast, the three urban agglomerations of the Yangtze River Delta, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao, as well as dozens of coastal open cities along the coast.
Then these seaport cities formed by the maritime economy and maritime trade over more than 300 years of industrial civilization form a coastal urban agglomeration with the seaport city as the center. Our inland is thousands of kilometers away from the coast, and the openness of the coast has been difficult to radiate to the inland in the past few decades and centuries. The benefits of this gradient are very poor.
But in the past 10 years, China has launched the "One Road, One Belt" initiative. The most important thing about this is not only the construction of a China-Europe railway , but also the most important thing is that it has changed the situation in which the maritime economic belt has dominated the world since industrial civilization. "One Belt and One Road" is a new pattern of sea power economy and land power economy, seaport cities and land port cities, a two-pronged approach, flying together, will appear in the world.
200 years ago, there was a book called "World Island", which talked about a concept, because two or three hundred years ago, there were five continents and four oceans in the world, and only Europe and Asia were connected to each other into one continent. This continent is called the World Island on the globe. At that time, other places, whether it was America or Africa or other places, were wild lands.
The real center of the world is the World Island formed by the Eurasian Continental Bridge. This world accounts for 60% of world trade, 60% of population, and 60% of GDP. It is the center of the entire world. After 300 years of maritime economy and maritime culture, countries in this world no longer trade with each other, because large-scale land-based transportation has not yet developed.
So now we are talking about the "One Belt, One Road", which actually connects the land rights of this world island with railways and highways. In this sense, the most important strategic significance of the “Belt and Road Initiative” is that it has changed the world, changed the unipolar culture of maritime economy and maritime trade, and formed a two-pronged trade system of seaports and land ports.
Under such a trade system, we can say that the three coastal urban agglomerations will continue to benefit from the influence of the marine economy, seaport economy, sea power culture, and sea power trade and continue to develop.
But inland Xi'an, Chengdu, Chongqing, Zhengzhou, Wuhan, Changsha, as well as Kunming and Dali in Yunnan in the southwest, as well as Nanning and Guiyang, they will benefit from the development of dry port economy and land rights trade, driven by the development of the Silk Road economic belt and dry port trade in the Belt and Road Initiative.
So how much will this dry port economy ultimately affect world trade? In other words, how much does it affect China’s trade? At present, China's import and export trade is more than 6 trillion US dollars, and 20%, which is more than 1 trillion US dollars, is brought about by air transportation.
The other nearly 5 trillion U.S. dollars are all maritime, because there is still very little land-based trade. However, since the China-Europe Railway, there are three west-to-north exports. As of last year, there were 15,000 trains. Each train has 100 containers and 100 wagons. The total is 1.5 million containers, and one container is 100,000 US dollars.
China-Europe railway transportation trade volume last year was US$150 billion, accounting for 1/4 of the total China-Europe trade of more than 600 billion US dollars.In another 10 years, if these railways double, China-Europe trade may reach US$300 billion.
10 years from now, perhaps 800 to 900 billion U.S. dollars, land rights trade is more than 300 billion, sea rights is also more than 300 billion, and about 200 billion more are aviation trade. Of course, these hundreds of billions of dollars will drive Zhengzhou, Harbin, Shenyang, and inland Xi'an, Urumqi, etc.
On the other hand, our country is still developing the southbound channel. The southbound passage has two scopes, one is from Chongqing to Guangxi, and the rail-sea combined transport is to Singapore. There is also the South Asia Railway, which has three lines, one goes through Vietnam, one goes through Laos , and one goes to Myanmar. Of these three railways, Vietnam Railway has been repaired in 2014, and half of the railway to Laos has been repaired.
Last year, the top leaders attended the opening ceremony of the China-Laos Railway . Laos used to go through Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore. These three railways, in theory, when each railway finally reaches transportation status, it may have at least 10,000 boxes a year, and the three railways are 30,000 boxes. Roughly $300 billion in trade volume.
Today, China and EU 10 countries - 10 countries in South Asia, have a trade of 800 billion US dollars. In addition to more than 100 billion US dollars transported by air, more than 600 billion US dollars are transported by sea and make a big circle to coastal areas. In turn, Chinese goods are also transported from the coast to Southeast Asia.
Southeast Asia has a 5,000-kilometer border with our southwest region. It is absolutely possible to have a highway or a railway to go directly there. That place is only a short distance away, hundreds of kilometers or thousands of kilometers away, and it has radiated to the entire southwestern and central regions of China. Why go around a big circle of 10,000 kilometers? The journey is twice as long and very inefficient.
In this sense, the South Asian railway right-of-way economy will also change the development of inland city clusters in Kunming, Dali, Yunnan, Nanning, Guangxi, including Chengdu and Chongqing, and the development of inland dry port cities. The “One Belt and One Road” initiative has changed China’s trade pattern, making both the seaport economy and the land port economy work together.
“One Belt, One Road” has also changed the entire world trade pattern. From the transformation of marine civilization more than 300 years ago into the exploration of the two-way development of marine civilization and land civilization, Chinese-style modern urban agglomerations will appear. Coastal seaport urban agglomerations will continue to develop, and inland land-port urban agglomerations will develop with the development of the "Belt and Road". This is the Chinese-style modern urban agglomeration structure.
Land port urban areas and seaport urban agglomerations have similarities, but they also have different internal structures. Some books are devoted to this aspect.
5. Chinese-style modernization must address rural revitalization, rural prosperity, and narrow the gap between urban and rural areas. Maintaining green mountains and green waters is the natural feature of mountains of gold and silver.
China’s rural development needs to solve two things.
The first is the gap between urban and rural areas, and the second is the gap between east and west.
The reason why it is very important is because of the natural endowment. From Harbin to Kunming, there is a straight line. The southeast side of this straight line receives 1000-1800 mm of rainfall every year, and the northwest side receives 200-800 mm of rainfall. Due to the small amount of water, the northwest side is short of rain and water all year round.
Under such circumstances, it is impossible for the northwest to cultivate agriculture as intensively as the southeast coast. It is also difficult for the northwest to have urban economic management and all walks of life like the southeast coast. This struggle with the natural world is really not a problem of institutional mechanisms. It does not mean that coastal leading cadres and coastal business operation methods can be solved by transplanting them to the west.
In the west, we need to use scientific and technological productivity. China's western development in the past 20 years has essentially used five "big" projects.
1. The large-scale development project in the western region must be a large-scale capital investment, ranging from a few billions to tens of billions or hundreds of billions;
4. 2. Since it is a large capital, it means there are large enterprise groups, whether state-owned or private, they are all operated by national-level large groups;
三, this kind of large capital and large enterprise operation is a high-tech modern technology;
四, covering a large market;
五, it must be a large system engineering supporting system.
So you can see that if you engage in agriculture in the west, it may be more like Israel greenhouses. A greenhouse costs 300,000 yuan per mu of land, and the output per mu of land reaches 50,000 yuan per year, which is relatively stable. Our coastal investment is small, the annual output is only about 1,000 yuan, and cash crops are 2,000 to 3,000 yuan, which can have 20 times the output. So in the end, if you plant 10,000 acres of greenhouse vegetables, you may need to invest 3 billion, an investment that can be recovered in five or six years, and then continue to operate, and save water and labor. It is almost automated.
Therefore, this kind of project is in line with the characteristics of less people and more land, which is the Gobi Desert and drought. No crops can grow without water, but this space can be used to build greenhouses and drip irrigation.
and now we are talking about solar energy. Now Qinghai has built a 700-square-kilometer solar power plant. With an installed capacity of 40 million kilowatts and 1,500 hours a year, a few cents can amount to tens of billions, which can increase Qinghai's GDP.
We can imagine that there are 1.6 million square kilometers of desert in the five northwest provinces of China. As long as the 40,000 square kilometers of it are covered with solar energy, 8 trillion kilowatt-hours of electricity can be generated a year. China's current thermal power stations with an installed capacity of 1.4 billion kilowatts cost 20 cents per unit, and 8 trillion kilowatt-hours of electricity are equivalent to 1.61 trillion. The combined population of the five northwest provinces is less than 100 million, and the per capita GDP is almost 20,000 yuan.
There are also other industries, so it is entirely possible to follow the concept of the five major projects. The per capita GDP may exceed the per capita in the east. Just like the Arab region, which is full of desert but has oil. The Arab per capita GDP is richer than Europe, the United States and the West.
In this sense, we can see that due to the natural endowments of the northwest and western China, based on the concept of the southeastern region, it may take 10 to 20 years to still have a gap of two or three times compared with the eastern region. We call it regional difference; but if we follow the five major projects promoted in the past 20 years, it is entirely possible that in more than ten years, the per capita income of the western region may exceed that of the eastern region.
As you have seen, in 2000, when the western development began, the gap between the east and west was 1:3.6, and now it is 1:2. I absolutely believe that in more than ten years, the gap between the east and the west will become 1:1, and even the west will be higher than the east. This means that the struggle against heaven and nature must rely on modern productive forces and the centralized and unified system and will of the country to advance.
We are currently engaged in the development of the western region with the "West-to-East Gas Transmission", "West-to-East Electricity Transmission", "Ultra-High Voltage Direct Current Transmission and Transformation System", or for example what we are talking about now, "Eastern Numbers and Western Calculations", etc. Various engineering projects embody these five "bigs" - that is, big technology, big capital, big enterprises, big markets, and large system engineering matching.
On the other hand, in our southeastern region, the rural areas are now much better than in the northwest, and the gap between urban and rural areas is still relatively low. There is a problem here, that is, we seem to stipulate that rural farmers can only engage in agriculture in the countryside.
In the 1980s and 1990s, farmers engaged in township and village enterprises. They felt that township and village enterprises were seriously polluting, consumed a lot of resources, and had little disparity. Later, almost all township and village enterprises were closed down in the new century. Each province had a township enterprise bureau under the Economic Commission in the 1980s and 1990s. Now I can say that 31 provincial township enterprise bureaus are gone.Does this mean that farmers in our rural areas cannot engage in industrial services other than agriculture?
Zhejiang people have given us a revelation of common prosperity. If you go to Zhejiang and visit the village communities, brigades, towns and grassroots below the county level, you will find that almost every village in Zhejiang is If there are 300 households inside, 270 of these 300 farmers may have their own building. The first floor is a small workshop-style processing factory, the second floor is the master's bedroom, the third floor is for children, and the fourth and fifth floors are where migrant workers live.
There are at least 500,000 to 600,000 farmers in our central and western regions. They do not go to work in the cities of Ningbo, Hangzhou, or Wenzhou, but work in rural areas and farmers' homes in Zhejiang. They are also doing industrial work, but they live in farmers' homes. Each household hires three, four or five migrant workers, one for each village and one township, to produce the products of its own primary industry.
Deep processing is not about ore mining or deep processing, nor is it about power plants, machine factories, or steel plants. It is all related to the primary industry and deep processing of the primary industry, such as making silk deep processing products. In short, what we do is deep processing related to the local primary industry, and the price is high, and then we do it like one village, one product, one township! How does
solve the procurement problem? You are now in the countryside of Zhejiang. You can see the eldest brother of dozens of farmers from hundreds, thousands, or tens of thousands of households sitting in a room, doing live broadcasts to sell goods. He only brings the products he makes at home, and promotes them to all over the country on the video. Once there is an order, it is sent to the workshop for production. How was
shipped? Now every village in Zhejiang is connected to expressways and high-grade roads. With just one phone call, logistics companies and couriers in the city came to take away his goods and shipped them to all parts of the country in two days.
When purchasing raw materials, if you need to come from outside, it is also express delivery. Therefore, when the Internet is combined with rural agriculture, it becomes rural 1+2+3. In other words, the deep processing of agricultural products is an industry and a secondary industry, and the sales of the products are tertiary industry 1+2+3, 6 secondary industries. This rural area has become a place where 6 industries and 123 industries are concentrated.
If China’s agriculture sells more than 1 trillion kilograms of grain a year, and if it sells for 2 trillion yuan, this deeply processed product will become 4 trillion yuan if it is further processed. When it is sold, the price difference may become 6 trillion yuan. China's farmers make a living, and the GDP they produce only accounts for 6% of China's 100 trillion GDP.
If 1+2+3 comes together, it will no longer be 6%, but 18% or 20%. At this time, the labor income of these same farmers has increased a lot, so I went to see at least 30 various enterprises run by villages below the level of rural towns in Zhejiang. Their captains and village chiefs did not engage in industry, so they became just another contractor. That is, two hundred and dozens of farmers. The contracted farmland they originally owned was leased and entrusted to this captain, who is responsible for agriculture. He then went to find dozens or hundreds of migrant workers from the mainland to prepare the land of hundreds or thousands of acres. Brigade leaders, migrant workers, and farmers also receive a certain amount of rent.
This is a very important part of the common prosperity of rural areas, that is, it allows farmers to transform from the entire development of agriculture into agriculture, industry, and service industries. However, this procurement, processing, and sales is based on local conditions. It does not mean that farmers should engage in urban industry in rural areas, nor should they engage in urban service industries with hundreds of industries, and integrate procurement, processing, and sales.
In Japan, it is called the sixth industry. It can even be said that any company that deeply processes local agricultural products and sells services should be exempted from tax. In fact, throughout China, since 2005, there have been no tax offices in rural China. Our taxation exists in more than 2,000 counties and more than 30,000 towns, and each town has a tax office.
After the current agricultural tax exemption, tens of thousands of tax offices in towns have been abolished.It is impossible for the tax agency in the city to go to the countryside. In the future, farmers will go to the second floor to engage in industry and the first floor to engage in live broadcast agency sales. How will taxes be collected for your services? It is a tax-free system, so people in Zhejiang become rich, and rural areas become rich in cities. Farmers do not want to work in the city.
The model of common prosperity is in Zhejiang, and it is no exaggeration at all. I think that Chinese-style modernized rural areas across the country should be based on this 1+2+3, this model of classified development based on local conditions. 1+2+3 in
region can be developed according to local conditions. This makes their businesses have higher added value, and in this sense forms Chinese-style modernization, without destroying the mountains and rivers of rural areas, polluting the environment, or turning them into resource consumption areas.
6. Chinese-style modernization should be a dual-circulation pattern of internal circulation and external circulation.
is a new dual-circulation pattern with internal circulation as the main body and internal and external circulation reinforcing each other. This means that China's opening-up will not be narrowed, but that its future opening-up will be wider-area opening-up and higher-level opening-up. In this sense, the opening up of Chinese-style modernization will have five new characteristics in the future.
First, from the past few decades, we have focused on encouraging exports and export-oriented export trade has transformed into "encouraging both exports and imports, striving to reduce tariffs and increase imports." Finally, our imports and exports are balanced in both directions, and we do not pursue excessive surpluses. We require a balance of imports and exports, which is a change.
The second change is that our regional opening-up will be based on coastal opening-up and coastal opening-up in the past few decades. After the last three to five years, the gradient will shift from the coastal areas to the central and western regions. This open model will be transformed into simultaneous development in the east, west, south, north, and middle in the future. If there are any development measures for
, they will either not be pushed or will be carried out simultaneously once they are launched. There are now 21 provinces in the country with free trade pilot zones, 8 in the central, 7 in the east, and 6 in the west. Counting Hainan Island in the east, there are 8, which is relatively evenly distributed. Similarly, when it comes to new zones, there were only two in Shanghai and Tianjin in the 1990s. Later, there were 17, with 5 in the east, middle, and west, an increase of 15.
We understand the opening-up measures as an institutional arrangement, which has nothing to do with geographical location. Therefore, the initial opening-up was mainly along the coast, but now the opening-up across China is synchronous. This also conforms to the rules of the world.
For example, in Europe, Germany is inland and not close to the sea. Who can say that Germany is not as open as Spain? So China has now entered this realm.
Third, China's opening up has been more open to Sino-foreign joint ventures in industry, commerce, real estate, construction and other industries in the past. Now it is all-round, wide-area and multi-channel development, and the service industry and service trade are open together. Industry, commerce and finance, service trade, education, health, culture, and the digital economy are all opening up simultaneously, and the negative list for opening up has been greatly reduced. The smaller the negative list is, the higher the degree of development will be.
Fourth, China’s opening up has changed from the opening up of capital, trade volume, and flow in the past to the opening up of institutions, rules, and regulations. This opening makes our current opening closer and closer to the open environmental requirements of the WTO and free trade pilot zones, making our country's open environment more and more international, legal, and market-oriented.
Fifth, China’s opening up has passively integrated into the world trade system and various systems and rules of the world in the past, and then used international institutional rules to force our domestic reforms. This has been the state of opening up in the past few decades.
In addition to continuing to integrate into various rule systems around the world, we are also actively promoting the reform and restructuring of the world's rule systems.
For example, on the “One Belt, One Road” initiative, we actually advocated an important restructuring, which is to transform the institutional rules formed by the world’s seaport economy and sea power civilization over the past 300 years into a sea power civilization and land power culture. It is very important to understand that the "One Belt, One Road" initiative is not simply about establishing a close resource-complementary and cooperative relationship with more than 100 countries in terms of trade, investment, etc.
In essence, it is to change the 300-year-old European and American-led sea power civilization and turn it into a land power civilization that has returned to the world island. With the addition of the four oceans and five continents, the sea power civilization is inevitable. A two-pronged approach is the most important. The various regulations we propose along the Belt and Road Initiative will affect how the entire world trades.
At the same time, we are also actively integrating into bilateral and multilateral free trade agreements. We have implemented RCEP with Asia this year. Don’t think that it was signed the year before and will take effect this year.
You must know that China has been signing contracts with 13 countries for 10 years. During these 10 years, we have signed contracts with all 13 countries one by one.
If you think so, we have taken great pains. To build an RCEP, you need to sign with each of the dozen member countries. Everyone is in charge of negotiations in different places, and everyone is in charge of signing in different places.
We are now further promoting cpttp. Of course, we are also working on the China-EU Investment Agreement with Europe. In short, in this sense, our opening up is proactive, not passive. It is a process in which we continue to play a role at the center of the world's commercial and economic stage.
Therefore, the peaceful rise of China-style modernization, the common development of the world, and the common development of a community with a shared future for mankind have been said and done, and will continue to develop in this way.
The above are the six systems of Chinese-style modernization that I want to talk about. They embody what the 20th National Congress of our Party said: "Chinese-style modernization is a modernization with a huge population, a modernization with common prosperity for all people, a modernization that harmonizes material civilization and spiritual civilization, a modernization that harmoniously coexists with nature, and a modernization that follows the path of peaceful development."
