In recent days, some netizens asked, will my e-commerce operations on Amazon be affected by the competition between China and the United States? I can only say that it depends on what product you are selling.
To answer this question, we must look at the general trend of China-US competition in the next five years. Many people may not be able to see clearly, so let’s talk to you today.
Looking back at history, the three stages of Sino-US competition
In the era of globalization, no matter what you do, the most important thing is to look at the general trend. For China, if it extends to the next five years, the biggest impact in the external environment is the competition between China and the United States in the economic and technological fields.
China-US competition has always existed, but it has really entered a white-hot spot in the past 10 years. If we want to look at the history of Sino-US competition in the past 10 years, it can be roughly divided into three stages.
st stage, from 2010 to 2016, we can call it the warm-up stage.
In 2010, China's GDP surpassed Japan and became the world's second largest economy after the United States. Since then, the United States has regarded China as its biggest competitor. This is the habit of Americans. As the number one economy, the country that is always following you.
From 2010 to 2016, the Sino-US competition has been sparking, but it has never gone viral. Perhaps at that time, Americans did not attach too much importance to China.
stage 2, from 2017 to 2022, we can call it the full-scale offensive stage.
Why do we take 2017 as the starting point of the second stage? It is because a big event happened in the United States this year. Trump took office as the first "businessman president" in American history. He then launched a full-scale trade friction with China.
In recent years, the United States’ competition against China can be understood as a comprehensive attack. How much has it been?
Since 2017, the United States has imposed tariffs on Chinese goods many times. If you understand that the United States is a high-tech field that restricts China, it would be wrong, because in thousands of product catalogs, many of them are refrigerators, TVs, plastic products, etc., electrical appliances and daily necessities.
The Americans target all Chinese products that have competitive advantages in the US market and have large sales. To put it bluntly, they will be a comprehensive blockade of the Chinese economy and a comprehensive attack.
At the same time, Americans did not relax in the military and high-tech fields, and they also made frequent moves. What everyone knows is that the United States imposes sanctions on hundreds of Chinese companies such as Huawei , ZTE , and what many people don’t know is that there are more hidden actions of technology blockade.
The third stage, from around 2023 to around 2030, is a key offensive stage.
If anyone who is familiar with history knows that a full-scale attack is often difficult to maintain for a long time. This is like the Liberation War in 1947, when the enemy had to give up a full-scale attack and turn to a key attack. This principle is very simple. Maintaining high-intensity combat for a long time will not only not only fail to support the troops, but also in resources, but more importantly, there are also great casualties.
The United States' full-scale offense lasted for five years from 2017 to 2022. In the internal and external difficulties, he could no longer support it and could only turn to a key offense. We have had related discussions before , so I won’t talk about it here. Friends who don’t understand the logic here, it is recommended to look at my content in the past month.
So, starting from 2023, what new characteristics will Sino-US competition show in the next five years?
In the next five years, a new stage of Sino-US competition
We have mentioned earlier that starting from 2023, the competition between the United States against China will enter a new stage of focusing on attacking . If we analyze it, what Americans need to do is to do in two directions, which is exactly the same as the focus of attacks on Shandong and northern Shaanxi in 1947.
The first key direction is innovation and high technology.
includes high-tech, such as new energy, AI, high-performance computing, biomedical , etc., as well as high-end manufacturing, such as chips, intelligent equipment, aviation equipment, etc. If you master the height, you will master the future.
To put it bluntly, I can't limit your scale anymore, so I have to limit your height. You can lengthen horizontally, but you can't compare with me.
The second key direction is US dollars. The principle of
is even clearer. Everyone knows that the US dollar is the basis of American hegemony and the destiny of the country. Maybe ordinary people don’t know much about it. In recent years, the competition for the world’s three major currencies has actually been very fierce.
These are very typical, such as oil settlement currency, China's "Belt and Road" trading currency, etc. These issues are also very sensitive.
So, what do we do?
Actually, this question is not complicated.
If you are in the high-tech and high-end manufacturing industry we mentioned earlier, then don’t have any fantasies, you can only break through the US blockade and win the support of the country.
If you are not in these industries, the strength of the country is closely related to everyone. We must stand firm, stay sober, and follow the country's general direction and baton.
In short, in the next five years, there will be no warmth between China and the United States, so don’t be bewitched by some people.
