Source: Zijin Tianfeng Futures Research Institute
Summary of view: PTA
Core view: Neutral PTA is tightly balanced in December, supply and maintenance exceed expectations, supply and demand remain tight, and the basis is close to delivery may continue to close in the near future. In the discharge of two new devices on the PX side, the demand for PTA maintenance PX has declined, the supply and demand of PX has weakened, and PXN compression is expected.
Spot: Neutral Spot market is generally buying. Some mainstream suppliers have quotations, and the quotation basis has strengthened. Spot is trading at 01+105. In January, the supply suppliers have quotations ranging from 05+90 to 110.
device changes: cautious and strong Dahua, Hengli extended maintenance, Fuhua maintained a 50% load, Yangzi , BP maintenance, mainstream suppliers extended maintenance, PTA supply was tight in December, and it is expected to maintain a tight balance.
downstream demand: be cautious and empty terminals are relaxed, order marginally improves, weaving and printing and dyeing load marginally rebounds; polyester load is maintained, short-term production and sales are better, which will help polyester to destock , and demand expectations are expected to improve.
Supply and demand balance: Neutral PTA maintenance has increased, and the pressure of tight balance in December is not high; PX supply and demand has weakened.
Processing profit: Neutral industrial chain profit has been slightly repaired, PX supply and demand have become weaker, and the current contract negotiations and terminals are liberalized, PXN is relatively strong. With the increase in the output of new devices, PXN has room for compression.
Summary of the point of view: ethylene glycol
Core view: Neutral cumulative library pressure increases, EG drives downward, but the valuation is relatively low, and the short-term macro improvement is expected to remain fluctuating, pay attention to the sustainability of the cumulative library.
Spot: Be cautious and short The market negotiation is generally, and the current spot basis is around 15-30 yuan/ton for the contract discount of 01, and the negotiation is 4035-4045 yuan/ton for several orders, and the transaction is 4030-4050 yuan/ton for several orders.
device changes: the short-term Shaanxi coal is full load, Shenghong discharges 80% of the load, and the supply side increases are relatively large.
import: Be cautious and more changes little, Saudi and North America will be subject to subsequent maintenance, and imports from November to December are estimated to be 550,000 tons.
Supply and demand balance: Be cautious and short new device discharge pressure in December has increased, and the marginal weakness. The pressure of accumulation of inventory in Q1 in 23 years is relatively high.
Processing profit: costs fall, profits continue to be repaired.
policy is relaxed, terminal marginal improvement
policy is relaxed, policy liberalization boosts terminal confidence
With the full liberalization of policies last week, traffic control has been over, order performance has improved, seasonal orders have increased, and weaving start-up has rebounded. As of last Friday (December 9), the probability of adding a rebound in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 52%, the probability of loom was 345.2%, and the probability of printing and dyeing was 56%. rebounded significantly from month-on-month.
downstream bottom-buying stocking enthusiasm has recovered, production and sales are still acceptable, and stocking is currently concentrated in 10-20 days, and the terminal centralized parking time has been postponed to the end of December and early January. Pay attention to the possibility of relaxing the terminal mentality and improving, and buying at the bottom of the year at the end of the year to celebrate the festival.
Data source: CCF, Zijin Tianfeng Futures Research Institute
polyester inventory cash flow pressure slightly relieved
As of December 9, polyester instantly dropped to around 69.2%, with an average operating rate of 69.38%, polyester weighted inventory around 21 days, and polyester weighted moisturization around 92 yuan.
filament staple fiber continues to be inspected, bottle pieces are inspected, and the load of polyester continues to decline. With the relaxation of the terminal, the enthusiasm for start-up and procurement has increased, the polyester inventory has begun to be sold, and the cash flow profit has also changed from serious losses to small profits. As the terminal margin improves, the polyester load drops may slow down.
Data source: CCF, Zijin Tianfeng Futures Research Institute
Polyester inventory marginally decreased
As of the 9th, POY, DTY, FDY and staple fiber inventory were 23, 24.3, 22.7 and 11.6 days respectively. The terminal improvement and the operating rate rebounded. Last week, polyester production and sales maintained a slight increase, and polyester inventory marginally decreased.
Data source: CCF, Zijin Tianfeng Futures Research Institute
Polyester profit repair
Crude oil fell, polyester raw materials were weak, terminal purchases rebounded, polyester prices stopped falling and rebounded, profits were significantly repaired from serious losses, filaments basically recovered to near break-even, FDY products recovered positive benefits, and bottle sheets and short fibers were still good.
Data source: CCF, Zijin Tianfeng Futures Research Institute
Polyester operating rate assessment
Overall polyester load further dropped to about 69% this week, but the current inventory pressure has slight eased, cash flow has been repaired, and the negative action of reducing polyester production may slow down.
polyester load assessment, December assessment is about 71% (2 percentage points month-on-month decrease), January polyester load assessment is about 70%, assessment is about 70%.
Data source: CCF, Zijin Tianfeng Futures Research Institute
PTA maintenance exceeds expectations
PTA device maintenance maintains a high level
device changes, 600,000 tons of Yangtze 600,000 tons of parking, Yizheng .35 million tons restarted, Xinfengming 5 million tons of equipment has recently dropped to 80, Tongkun 2.2 million tons of equipment is planned to be repaired at the end of the month, and Fuhaichuang has dropped to 50, but there is no negative plan yet. YS Ningbo 200 and Dahua 225 units are planned to be parked until January, and HL2# is planned to be parked until January. Supply terminal maintenance continued to be high in December. In terms of the new
device, Shandong Weilian Investment’s materials were tested and the materials were released in December.
As the end of the year approaches, the number of planned maintenance of PTA suppliers continues to increase, mainly due to low profits and tight raw materials.
Data source: CCF, Zijin Tianfeng Futures Research Institute
PTA inventory is relatively low
According to Zhongpu data, as of December 9, PTA's social inventory fell to 1.593 million tons this week, and the overall circulating inventory is relatively low, and Zhongpu inventory continues to decline. The number of warehouse receipts for
is relatively low, and as of December 9, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange PTA warehouse receipts were 16,800.
Data source: CCF, Zijin Tianfeng Futures Research Institute
PTA balance table
PTA supply side maintenance exceeded expectations, and tight balance was tight in December. As TA maintenance increases, the pressure to accumulate PX library will increase, and we will pay attention to the opportunities for PXN compression and basis collection in the future.
supply side, Fuhaichuang lost money in December, Inex 110, Dahua 225, and Yangtze Petrochemical 60 parking, Hengli extended maintenance, Asia East restarted, and the overall maintenance exceeded expectations. On the demand side, polyester continues to drop its burden, with the load assessed from December to January being 71% and 70%.
balance changes, PTA supply side maintenance and maintenance remain high, and the cumulative inventory pressure in December is not high. PTA maintenance increases the expected excess of PX, and PXN stores compression space.
Data source: CCF, Zijin Tianfeng Futures Research Institute
Gasoline cracking and octane number continue to weaken
US gasoline cracking and cracking price spread continues to weaken, octane number declines seasonally, and demand for aromatic oil mixing weakens.
Asian gasoline cracking continues to remain low, and the economy of oil transfer is average, but there are still oil transfer actions.
Data source: Reuters, Zijin Tianfeng Futures Research Institute
Aroma oil mixing and chemical profits both declined
Gasoline off-season oil mixing demand declined, and disproportionate profits remained low. North America's disproportionate profit margin may remain in the parking space until 23 years. Some low-octane naphtha are placed in the oil mixing pool, requiring more high-octane components to be adjusted oil. The aromatic oil mixing continues, and demand is declining seasonally.
Data source: WIND, Platts, Zijin Tianfeng Futures Research Institute
Arbitrage window open
Recently, toluene , xylene , PX arbitrage window remained open. In November, some Asian aromatic products have reached American Bay , and in December, some aromatics still entered the United States.
Data source: IHS, WIND, Zijin Tianfeng Futures Research Institute
PX balance table
Domestic PX device dynamics, Zhenhai plans to restart on December 10, and the information has been released. The restart of Hainan Refining and Chemical has been postponed to February, Liaoyang Petrochemical has slightly reduced its load, and other changes are not much.
The new device was discharged, Shenghong's 2 million tons started to work to a load of 60%-70%, and Weilian Chemical's 1 million tons of equipment produced qualified products, and the load was being increased.
balance, import returns are slow, PX's domestic new equipment is put into production and PTA maintenance is increasing, PX has changed from tightness to relatively loose one after another, and PXN is expected to have a compression trend.
Data source: CCF, Zijin Tianfeng Futures Research Institute
Industrial chain valuation has been repaired
PTA industrial chain price spread has been repaired slightly, PXN remains firm, and PX-crude oil price spread has been repaired upward.
Survey and demand, PX supply is put into production and implementation, demand for maintenance has increased, and PX is facing increased pressure to accumulate inventory. The macro improvement will be improved after the short-term annual contract and the liberalization, and PXN remains relatively strong. With the release of liquidity of the new device, PXN is expected to be compressed later.
Data source: Zijin Tianfeng Futures Research Institute
MEG Focus on the persistence of cumulative database
Ethylene glycol load remains stable
According to CCF, as of December 2, the average weekly total load of ethylene glycol was 56.12%, of which the coal-to-coal load was 39%, and the load remained stable.
Data source: CCF, Zijin Tianfeng Futures Research Institute
Some domestic coal-made devices restart
This week's device changes, Zhenhai and Fulian, Hengli, has slightly reduced its losses. Maoming Petrochemical and Xinjiang Tianye .6 million tons equipment was restarted, Shanxi extended parking and restarted, Tongliao Jinmei's parking plan was restarted this week due to the epidemic in early December, Zhenhai maintenance plan was cancelled, Sinopec's 280,000 tons equipment was stopped in early December for 1-2 months, Shaanxi Coal and Yulin dropped slightly.
Data source: CCF, Zijin Tianfeng Futures Research Institute
new device put into production and landing
new device, Shaanxi Coal Yulin is in operation, and currently has a load of 70%-80%; Shenghong has raised the negative to 80% of the 1 million tons.
Domestic coal-made devices restarted, new devices began to contribute output, and the overall supply side began to rebound. It is reported that logistics in Shaanxi has been smooth, and we are concerned about the impact of new devices on spot liquidity.
Data source: CCF, Zijin Tianfeng Futures Research Institute
Mainstream process losses continue to be repaired
Costs decline, ethylene glycol prices remain, and oil and coal process profits have been repaired.
Data source: Zijin Tianfeng Futures Research Institute
short-term low import volume assessment remains unchanged
Some overseas devices are maintained at a parking or low load state after maintenance, and overseas maintenance volume remains at a high level.
Overseas device has not changed much this week. Saudi Arabia's 450,000-ton sharpq1 began maintenance as planned. MEGlobal, the United States temporarily stopped the vehicle last week. The device is currently under maintenance and restart time is to be determined. Overseas maintenance is at a high level, and import estimates remain unchanged.
Data source: General Administration of Customs, 52HZ, Zijin Tianfeng Futures Research Institute
Port inventory expected to rebound
From the perspective of port arrival volume, it is expected to arrive at the port from December 5th to 11th, with an actual arrival of 171,000 tons. The actual arrival of the port is relatively high, and the downstream pickup is average, and the port inventory is slightly disposable.
As of the 12th, the inventory of MEG ports in the main ports in East China was about 961,000 tons, an increase of 73,000 tons month-on-month, and the inventory remained stable.
12.12-12.18, the total arrival volume is expected to be around 137,000 tons. It is neutral in port, and ethylene glycol inventory has remained stable and rebounded slightly.
Data source: CCF, Zijin Tianfeng Futures Research Institute
ethylene glycol balance table
supply end, new devices Shaanxi coal and Shenghong new devices discharge materials, supply brings incremental. On the import side, overseas maintenance and maintenance remained at a high level, and the import estimate remained unchanged by 550,000 tons. On the demand side, major manufacturers have started to reduce their losses, and is temporarily estimated to be 571% and 70% from December to January.
balance, the cumulative inventory pressure in December is relatively high, new equipment on the supply side is put into production, demand declines seasonally, and the supply and demand pattern is worse. EG drives downward, but the valuation is relatively low. The short-term macro improvement is expected to remain fluctuating, and we pay attention to the sustainability of the accumulation of inventory.
Data source: CCF, Zijin Tianfeng Futures Research Institute
Price spread structure
PTA settlement basis, month-to-month spread remains stable
Data source: WIND, CCF, Zijin Tianfeng Futures Research Institute
Ethylene glycol basis remains stable, month-to-month spread weak
Data source: WIND, CCF, Zijin Tianfeng Futures Research Institute
Far Month Structure
Data source: Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, Dalian Commodity Exchange, Singapore Exchange, Zijin Tianfeng Futures Research Institute
This article is from industry information
