Today, the two markets opened low and then continued to fluctuate and lower, the Shanghai Composite Index fell nearly 1%, and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 rose slightly against the market. The two markets had a turnover of 909.8 billion, nearly 100 billion less than last Friday. Today is still a clear stock game.
foreign capital sold a net sale of 4.3 billion, which is a relatively rare thing recently.
As for the reasons for the decline, I also analyzed last night. The core is the expectation of positive news and various negative news have also begun to come.
The first thing that is to bear the brunt of the epidemic.
This weekend just passed, represented by Beijing, and it has spread significantly.
In the past two days, the hot searches have also overwhelmed topics about the epidemic.
Today, A shares also continued to join forces to speculate on the concept of anti-epidemic, while the weight of , which led the rise some time ago, was generally adjusted.
The more it is to fight the epidemic, the more it means that the market sentiment is more pessimistic.
Secondly, it is what Sentinel said last night. The various economic data of should be released one after another, and it will not look very good.
After the market today, Central Bank released financial data for November.
M2 growth rate hit a new high, reaching 12.4%.
new loans and social financing, has significantly increased month-on-month 10 (due to the National Day holiday in October, it is relatively low every year), but they are all slightly lower than market expectations.
Specifically, in November, except for the medium- and long-term loans of enterprise , which rebounded, the number of sub-data such as resident department credit, corporate bond financing , and government bond financing all declined compared with the same period last year, which means that residents' consumption, real estate demand, and corporate confidence are weak under the epidemic.
1. Everyone is saving money and is unwilling to spend money.
new loans were 1.21 trillion yuan, lower than the expected 1.35 trillion yuan, and increased by 59.6 billion yuan year-on-year compared with ; new social financing was 1.99 trillion yuan, lower than the expected 2.1 trillion yuan, lower than the expected 610.9 billion yuan, lower than the expected 610.9 billion yuan year-on-year.
At the same time, RMB deposits increased by 2.95 trillion yuan in November, an increase of 1.81 trillion yuan year-on-year.
are saving money and are unwilling to spend money, which shows that they are generally pessimistic.
2. Real estate companies are recovering financing. In the November credit data of
1, the company performed quite well in the medium and long term, with 736.7 billion new shares compared with 341.7 billion in the same period last year.
Among them, the real estate company should make contributions.
Throughout November, the three arrows of real estate were the focus of attention in the entire financial circle. After the financing restrictions of real estate companies were lifted, real estate companies immediately launched financing, which should be the largest increase.
3. People are still unwilling to buy a house.
In November, residents added 210.3 billion in medium- and long-term credit, much better than 33.2 billion in October, but it is still weaker than in the same period last year, with 582.1 billion in the same period last year.
Although many policies to stimulate real estate were introduced in November, the effect was not obvious, and the people were still unwilling to buy a house.
Overall, it is still an old problem. Central mothers keep giving in, but companies and individuals are unwilling to take out loans.
Faced with this situation, the market still has high expectations for the next policy stimulus.
But the higher the expectations, the more likely it is to fail after the expectations are fulfilled, or it is not as good as expected.
In early December, the central government had lowered the reserve requirement ratio; it is estimated that will cut interest rates in (lowering the LPR interest rate ) to continue to stimulate the market.
And everyone sees the current situation in December. Now, in first- and second-tier cities, people don’t dare to go out.
The epidemic is still spreading. With the arrival of the Spring Festival travel rush, small cities and rural areas are inevitable. December and January will inevitably have an impact on the economy.
So, all economic data in the past two months will probably be relatively ugly.
Next, we need to face the test of reality.
short-term , which is to look at Central Economic Work Conference and Federal Reserve interest rate meeting . Overall, we still pay more attention to risks at present.
