In the long history, how can humans get rid of the "poverty trap"? What is the fundamental driving force for human economic development? Why are the current living standards in countries around the world so different? O'Dade Geller, a professor of economics at Brown University in the United States, recently answered the above questions from the perspective of a unified growth framework in his book "The Journey to Humanity: The Origins of Wealth and Inequality" published in China.
2022, global economy is still in uncertainty. The epidemic, war, energy crisis, , slowdown in economic growth... This will bring huge challenges to mankind. Professor Odade Geller recently accepted an exclusive interview with China News Service's "East and West Question" and looked at the world of tomorrow from the perspective of growth.
The interview transcript is summarized as follows:
China News Service reporter: You recently published the book "The Journey to Humanity: The Origin of Wealth and Inequality" and was listed in China. What is the focus of this book and what is the most important insight?
Odade Geller: This book explores the evolution of human society since the emergence of Homo sapiens in Africa nearly 300,000 years ago. It solves two of the most basic mysteries surrounding this journey.
Mystery 1: The Mystery of Growth - After 300,000 years of nearly stagnation, what is the root cause of the sharp changes in human living standards in the past 200 years? Why has the world's per capita income increased 14 times over the past 200 years and life expectancy more than doubled, and these dimensions have made minimal progress over 300,000 years.
Mystery 2: Growing Inequality - What is the root cause of huge inequality in living standards in different countries and regions, and why has this inequality increased dramatically in the past 200 years?
This book presents a revolutionary view on the origin of wealth and global inequality. It shows that most of the inequality in national wealth can be traced back hundreds of years ago, thousands or even tens of thousands of years ago, and this involves institutional, cultural and geographical features and population diversity .
Theme National Day flower bed along Chang'an Street, Beijing. Photo by Tian Yuhao
China News Service reporter: Based on the unified growth framework you proposed, how to understand inequality among countries? Are these inequalities rising or falling?
Odade Geller: Unified Geller's theory of unification believes that for most of the time human beings exist, innovation has only promoted economic prosperity for several generations. Finally, population growth restores living conditions to a level of livelihood. The technologically advanced society has a larger population density, but the economy is not more prosperous. Therefore, until the early 19th century, inequality in the world economy in was moderate.
However, over the past two centuries, the world's per capita income has increased 14 times, from stagnation to takeoff, bringing huge inequality among countries. The takeoff took place in some countries in the 19th century and many developing countries in the late 20th century, resulting in huge inequality in national wealth.
But due to the decrease in return on capital and the slowdown in technological progress, in recent decades, latecomers of modern economic growth, such as China, have grown very rapidly, and inequality between some countries has subsided and will be further reduced.
On August 21, 2022, with the departure of the China-Europe Express (Xi'an-Hamburg) from Xi'an International Port Station, the total number of China-Europe Express trains has been running since 2022. Photo by Huang Xin
China News Service reporter: What impact will the ongoing COVID-19 epidemic have on world economic growth? In the 14th century, the economic development of European society was greatly affected by the Black Death. Do you think this epidemic will have such a serious impact on the economy?
Odade Geller: The COVID-19 pandemic highlights the ability of mankind to deal with the major challenges that will face in the coming decades. It reminds humans of their own vulnerability and highlights the importance of international cooperation and transparency in an interdependent world.
In addition, the COVID-19 pandemic has also produced an important "experiment" that may have a lasting and beneficial impact on the productivity of the company and the welfare of employees. It forces companies to allow employees to work remotely, and people realize that in this way, productivity declines are not large and the benefits employees receive are considerable.A new working model may emerge, which requires less office space, lower transportation costs, and lower employee activity in the work environment.
At the China Import and Export Commodity Fair (Canton Fair), staff introduced the products to buyers through live broadcast. Photo by Chen Jimin
China News Service reporter: You mentioned that technological progress can become a catalyst for economic growth. Some people believe that the pace of technological progress is slowing down and that the next round of technological revolution can achieve rapid economic growth. Do you think technological development is at a critical point? In which industry or field will the next round of major transformation of the technology model take place?
Odade Geller: I do not agree with doubts about the speed of future technological progress. I think the pace of technological progress will continue, and the wheel of change that dominates the journey of mankind will continue to rotate. Strengthening attention to future direction and education, and respecting gender equality, diversity and differences are the key to prosperity. They will promote innovation, reduce social inconsistency, and mitigate current climate change trends.
It may be too early to determine the core features of the next technological revolution, but it may include two important aspects: innovations that allow humans to extract cheaper and more environmentally friendly energy, and innovations that allow significantly longer human life and improve human cognitive functions.
November 5, 2022, the 5th China International Import Expo Technology Equipment Exhibition Area, visitors experienced VR technology at the Canon booth. Photo by Yin Liqin
China News Service reporter: In recent years, many countries have faced an unoptimistic population growth rate. For example, China's population birth rate in 2021 was only 7.52‰. The whole world is suffering from similar problems. According to your growth framework, how will population problems affect the economic growth of these countries?
Odade Geller: As long as the education and productivity of young people are greatly improved, that is, as long as the trade-offs of quantity and quality are maintained, I believe that the expected population growth rate and ultimately the decline in the world population will benefit the world: the pressure on the environment will fade, the productivity of young people will significantly increase, and may be enough to make up for the decline in population size. This model will lead to growth in per capita income, even as the world population is declining.
China The Seventh National Census Main data shows that the total population of mainland China in 2020 was about 1.41 billion. The picture shows the leisure people in the park in Baise, Guangxi. Chen Guanyan Photo by
China News Service reporter: How does globalization after affect economic growth? Will the competition between China and the United States affect economic globalization ?
Odade Geller: Globalization plays an important role in the growth of the world economy, but conflicts in some regions are currently jeopardizing this important trend. I hope that China and the United States will take credible political measures to build mutual trust and prevent the decline in the degree of globalization and its negative impact on the entire world economy. In fact, China's growth over the past few decades has been significant, benefiting significantly both itself and the world economy.
Profile of the respondents:
Oded Galor, founder of unified growth theory, Israeli American economist, Herbert Goldberg professor of economics at Brown University, elected foreign member (honours) of the European Academy of Sciences (Academia Europaea) and an elected researcher of the Society of Econometrics, editor-in-chief of the Journal of Economic Growth, and editor of the Journal of Population Economics.
