read an article today, with a simple and crude view: The real estate market will recover next year, so buy a house as early as possible. and the title uses "Current real estate is the best time to buy at the bottom", and finally, a big exclamation mark was added.
article lists three reasons for "buying at the bottom":
first. In recent times, from top to bottom, the country has invested a total of 1.925 trillion yuan to save the housing market. Among them, 650 billion is the special fund for "security and payment", and 1.275 trillion is the credit granted by the six major banks to high-quality developers. In addition, the reserve requirement ratio will be cut by 0.25% on December 5, which will release 500 billion of long-term liquidity, totaling 2.425 trillion yuan. Such a large amount of funds have been spent on , and it is imperative to recover the property market.
Second, senior executives of important national departments jointly spoke out "support the real estate market", and senior executives of their central mother also expressed the view that "the real estate industry is related to many upstream and downstream industries, and its virtuous cycle is of great significance to the healthy development of the economy." The signal released is clear. Real estate is too important and we must find ways to make it warm.
3, not much land was sold this year. gr. data shows that as of November 16, the transaction area of bidding and auction of residential land in 22 cities was 727.5617 million square meters, a decrease of 58.08% from the whole year of 2021. If the flour supply is insufficient, the bread cannot be made. The land is sold less, and a lot of the land is obtained by local urban investment, while urban investment actually has no development capabilities. According to data, the urban investment land acquisition development rate last year was less than 20%. Based on this, it is not difficult to conclude that the supply of new homes will be seriously insufficient next year. "Supply shortage" will help the market heat up, which is something you can figure out with your toes.
plus some time ago, the media reported that foreign capital was buying real estate in a crazy way, so overall, now is the best time to enter the market to buy a house.
At first glance, it is indeed reliable. The article is very informative and well-founded. Especially for many newbies who buy houses, it is really hard not to be convinced.
Is this really true? But Tiehammer has different views:
First, whether the real estate market can recover next year depends not only on the policy favorable policies and financial support of the real estate industry, but also on the direction of the epidemic. is still the same, "The epidemic is still the biggest uncertainty that determines the development direction of many industries." This view is not something that everyone agrees with, but a reality that must be accepted.
Like Zhengzhou, this year, it has been repeated, stopping and stopping this year, and has been tossing several times. People squatting at home, where do they get their income? Who supports the property market? People are always wearing masks and cannot carry out production and life normally. Where can they get the confidence to bear the mortgage loan for 30 years to become a house buyer?
Iron Hammer Many friends are physical, and their feedback is more realistic: the manufacturing industry is in a state of decline, many factories are shrinking their front lines, business orders are declining severely, and workers can only work for half a month and take a break for half a month. Some factories with poor performance will be notified to suspend work for 3 months. Therefore, many people go back to their hometowns for the New Year in advance.
The bank lender calls almost every day to ask if he wants to get a loan. In October, the number of new social financing increased by only 907.9 billion yuan, 709.7 billion yuan less than the same period last year, and the previous value was 3.53 trillion yuan. The signal released is very clear. is not only because the people are unwilling to buy houses, but also because the scale of enterprises is shrinking and they cannot use bank loans at all.
Second, I have to admit that this year is indeed the most active year to save the real estate market: the number of regulatory actions throughout the year and the number of cities involved in regulation must have set a historical record.
But judging from the data released at all levels, the real estate market has not bottomed out, and I don’t know when it will bottom out, so there is no way to talk about “buying the bottom”:
1, 70 cities in October, , , and the number of cities that fell year-on-year;
2, 100 new house prices fell four consecutive months, and 100 second-hand house prices fell seven consecutive months; 100 top 100 real estate companies in October, 2.7% month-on-month and 28.5% year-on-year. In the first 10 months, the sales of the top 100 real estate companies fell by 43.4% year-on-year.
Third, the land sale this year is indeed not ideal, but we cannot say that "the reduction in new home supply next year will boost the market heat up." Just talking about the decrease in supply and not the backlog of inventory, which is a bit hooligan.
The truth of the fact is that not only is the backlog of inventory in the current real estate market, but the supply of new houses is also increasing significantly - CRIC Research Center data shows that in September, the concentrated supply volume in 100 cities increased by nearly 30% month-on-month, and transactions increased slightly by 5%. The narrow inventory continued to fluctuate at a high of 592 million square meters, and the sales cycle increased to 21.4 months. The high level of broad inventory increased slightly to 2.814 billion square meters, and the potential inventory risk is still relatively large.
At the end of September, , Qingdao , Wuhan, Shenyang and other cities had narrow inventory of over 20 million square meters. The narrow inventory of third- and fourth-tier cities such as Huizhou , Foshan , Yantai , and other third- and fourth-tier cities also exceeds 12 million square meters. Among them, Chengdu's year-on-year growth rate reached 44%, while Guangzhou and Huizhou's year-on-year growth rate was also above 10%.
Take Qingdao as an example. The inventory sales cycle of commercial housing in several districts far away from the main city has reached 3-4 years. In other words, even if you don’t sell land in the next three years, you won’t be able to supply a new house, and the backlog of inventory is enough to sell. Of course, there is indeed a situation where the inventory in the main urban area is insufficient.
Fourth, about "giving money to save the market", many people are now seriously misled and do not understand the profound meaning.
money was indeed issued, but it is definitely not 2.425 trillion. In recent days, the 1.275 trillion yuan credit granted by the six major banks to real estate companies is actually only equivalent to " strategic cooperation " - how many models can be put down in the end is a different matter. According to past experience, the bank plans to grant a credit of 100 million yuan and finally be able to lend 10 million yuan. It is already a great mercy.
actually only paid out 650 billion yuan, and its purpose is very clear, helping high-quality developers complete the "security payment". Moreover, Tiehui believes that given that some real estate companies have previously misappropriated pre-sale funds, the use of this money must be supervised throughout the process, and developers have to spend every minute clearly.
After the analysis of the hammer, I believe everyone should understand that the same data and the same message, and the information transmitted is very different after different processing and interpretation. Some people always like to advocate favorable factors and deliberately exaggerate some insignificant information because of their different positions. This requires everyone to make their own judgment when watching the news and not always be led by others.
The fifth and most important one. The so-called favorable policies now are actually mainly about the "supply side" working hard, namely, saving developers and projects. There is basically no favorability for the "demand side" that can truly affect the market direction.
Some people say that saving real estate companies is only the first step now, and the demand side will be stimulated next. I personally think it is difficult to stimulate the demand side: on the one hand, the current threshold for buying a house has basically been reduced to the lowest level - according to incomplete statistics, since this year, more than 100 cities have reduced the down payment ratio of provident fund or commercial personal housing loans to 20%, including provincial capital cities such as Chengdu, Shijiazhuang, Xi'an, Nanchang . In addition, the interest rate for first-home loans has also dropped below 4%. Is there still room for decline in
? To be honest, there is no more, we can’t reduce the down payment ratio to 10%, right? Can you continue to let go of water? I personally think that it is not possible because we need to consider inflation factors and external environmental factors.
On the other hand, what the current market lacks is confidence and trust, and saving confidence is precisely the most difficult. The lack of confidence is because the house prices have fallen, and the lack of trust is because the houses purchased cannot be delivered on time, and some are directly unfinished. Tiexhib has interviewed colleagues around you before, and housing prices have fallen, interest rate has fallen, and down payments have fallen, why don’t you buy a house? The other party's answer directly silenced me: the cost of buying a house is indeed less, but who can guarantee that the developer will not lose it after I buy a house?
Yes, there are no such many advantages in this world. The ancients have long said that greed for small gains will lead to great losses.
Now people are encouraged to buy houses at the bottom. We cannot say all of them. A large part of them are developers' brokers. To put it bluntly, they are capable people who take commissions for group buying property. The property market has been cold for so long and their business is bleak and they can't wait. We will naturally take advantage of all opportunities to create an atmosphere of recovery in the property market. As the saying goes, the world is bustling for profit, and the world is bustling for profit.
To be fair, the country has made great efforts to save the real estate market in recent years, and various favorable gift packages have been distributed continuously. The ultimate goal is to make every effort to stabilize the real estate market.
But we also need to understand that the fundamentals of real estate are very different from those in previous years: is absolutely oversupply of housing, a gradual decrease in population, a leverage ratio of residents hits the peak, and a sharp decline in housing demand, etc., and there will be no significant changes due to financial efforts. In the end, people need to buy a house. When the demand side is not strong, no matter how much benefit you make on the supply side, it will be a headache to treat it. Not only will it not solve the actual problem, but it may also cause greater risks. Finally, Iron Hammer must remind everyone: In critical times, don’t be led by people with ulterior motives, and buying a house depends on the demand. In addition, we must recognize the reality that the era of "real estate wealth creation" is over.
