U.S. stock Nearly a hundred years of history: Every sharp drop in the US stock market occurs when the gap between the rich and the poor is extremely serious in society.
The first time was in 1929, the second time was in 2008, and the third time was in this year.
This is an inherent contradiction in capitalism . When the effective demand of society and the excess production capacity are misaligned, consumption stagnation and the inherent crisis caused by the asset bubble.
Since Roosevelt's New Deal in 1933, Keynesian has entered the human vision. Since then, Adam's liberal economics has been replaced. After every crisis, it has been greatly relieved. However, when high debts cannot be repaid, there is no solution in the end.
, but Keynes also said that if you don’t let the water go, you’ll hang it now, and if you don’t let the water go, you may hang it later. This is the same as a person activates consumer loans. Even though he knows it is toxic, he has to use it.
Whether the US stock market is cheap does not depend on how much it has fallen, but on the domestic economic situation and the Feder 's monetary policy. If the Fed continues to raise interest rates next year, there is no doubt that the US stock market will still fall, but there will be a rebound even if it falls. This risk can be resolved through fixed investment.
This is the magic of fixed investment. bull market main upward wave cycle. The more you buy, the more expensive it will be, and there is no advantage. However, the bear market is mainly downward wave cycle, fixed investment is the most magical way.
After looking at the US stock market, let’s take a look at A shares .
There has been no situation in the history of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300. The worst result of
is the decline for two consecutive years, one in 2004 and 2005, and the other in 2010 and 2011.
However, although it closed positive in 2012, the increase in in that year was not large. There is not much money-making effect .
has the last month left this year. The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 will definitely close the negative line. It is expected that the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 will close the positive line next year. At the latest, the 2024 positive line will close.
In fact, the long bull battle for A-shares is meaningless. Most of the time, A-shares rise for 1 year and fall for 2 years. This is a historical law and is also determined by the historical mission of A-shares. It is better to expect A-shares to be able to move freely as soon as possible.
and CSI 300 are CSI 500. These two indexes include 800 stocks with large A-share market value, which is very representative.
CSI 500 has fallen for 1 year. According to historical rules, it may fall for another two years at most.
From here you can see the fixed investment cycles of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 and CSI 500. The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 is suitable for about one year, and the CSI 500 is suitable for about two years.
Historical laws do not represent the future. In the past 20 years, our country has enjoyed the demographic dividend , WTO dividends and the Internet dividend. These three dividends will no longer exist in the next five years.
, especially the demographic dividend, 1963 was one of the most populous years in Chinese history, with about 27 million people born. According to the current retirement system, this group of people happen to retire next year, which means that 27 million people are less paid social security and 27 million people are more paid pensions. As the years accumulate, the pressure will become greater and greater.
According to the rough calculation of working after undergraduate graduation, college students born in 2001 started working in 2023, and the gap of 10 million will gradually accumulate every year, and it is a trend of expansion. Last year, the number of births in my country was 10 million. In fact, the number of employed people will be far below 10 million, because not everyone can go to college, and the employment rate after graduation is also very low.
For this reason, the national pension system is also being reformed. The core problem in the future is population issues. People are the basis for all development. If there is no one, houses, stocks and even money are meaningless.
This is a risk we need to consider when investing. Referring to Japan, their country's population aging is more serious than China, and regular investment according to the average value strategy can also achieve positive returns. So there is no need to worry too much about this risk.
The last risk is policy. The Chinese stock market is greatly affected by policies, especially now facing changes unseen in a century. If the policy changes dramatically, then all our investment logic will no longer be valid. This probability is very small. You cannot stop eating because of choking, nor do you not take the plane because of an accident. Of course, you cannot not invest because of risks. You just need to control risks and ensure your relative safety.
#November new financial force#
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