International oil prices continued to close on Friday morning due to weaker expectations of a decline in Russian crude oil supply and the continued drag of sharp rise in U.S. gasoline inventories. The price of Brent crude oil fell to $85.34 per barrel, a drop of 0.09%. The closing price of was slightly higher than the recent two-month low of $82.30 per barrel this week, and is expected to record a three-week decline.
Domestic oil prices also fell in the latest statistical window, with the decline being larger than international oil prices, but it seems that it is not much larger. The corresponding price adjustment amount recorded a drop of 30 yuan per ton. Fortunately, the price adjustment amount in the previous windows had a relatively large decline, and the expectation of a lower oil price was further strengthened this week.
According to statistics on the latest working day, the crude oil change rate reached -7.50%, down 0.33% from the previous day. The corresponding price adjustment amount fell by 380 yuan/ton. The part beyond the red line of oil price reduction increased to 330 yuan/ton. Therefore, it is temporarily expected that the oil price adjustment on December 5 will be lowered.
In addition to the fact that G7 's upper limit on Russia's crude oil price will not cause a significant drop in Russia's crude oil exports, Iraq has once again released news of increasing oil production, but some sources said Iraq is unlikely to make demands for increased production at this ministerial meeting.
Iraq's new prime minister said on November 15 that he hopes to reassess Iraq's target of OPEC + crude oil production, but it seems the government has decided not to raise the issue at a ministerial meeting in Vienna on December 4.
2 million barrels per day production cut plan has caused Iraq's own production target to drop by about 220,000 barrels per day from October, and this month to 4.43 million barrels per day. Data shows that Iraq's daily crude oil production in October was 4.6 million barrels, 50,000 barrels lower than the monthly production target.
Although Iraq reiterated its commitment to the current production limit agreement, it expects to advance plans to expand its crude oil capacity in the coming years, with the former Iraqi oil minister setting a target of increasing production capacity to 8 million barrels per day by 2028, and recently, Somo's head said it plans to increase production to around 7 million barrels per day by 2027.
An analyst believes that despite Iraq's new prime minister's recent call for a review of quotas, Iraq is unlikely to push for a boost to its output benchmark at the upcoming OPEC+ meeting, saying Iraq is in talks with state-owned oil companies to stick to its current production quota.
In addition, the current market situation does not allow for increased production quotas. Whether it is Iraq or other OPCE+ members, changes in OPCE+ quota are usually achieved by adjusting the benchmark levels of member countries. Iraq, Saudi Arabia , Kuwait , Russia and the UAE all benefited greatly from the benchmark adjustments earlier this year. Before Iraq's clear change of heart, Iraq's new oil minister visited Saudi Arabia at the invitation of the oil minister. At the meeting on November 24, the oil ministers of the two countries emphasized the importance of adhering to the decision made by OPEC+ at the ministerial meeting in October, which is to reduce the organization's collective daily production target by 2 million barrels from November to the end of 2023.
11-26 National gasoline prices 92 and 95
