In the first 10 months of 2022, the total amount of India's foreign commodity trade expanded to US$987.06 billion, and increased by 25.9% year-on-year. Among them, the amount of exported goods was US$378.714 billion, an increase of 16.7% year-on-year; the amount of imported goods was US$608.345 billion, an increase of as high as 32.3%.
Since the growth rate of imported goods is close to twice the growth rate of export goods, this has led to: India's foreign commodity trade deficit in the first 10 months has reached US$230 billion , and the deficit in the same period last year was only more than US$135 billion. increased by nearly 70% year-on-year, setting a record high. How to interpret
?
First, the drag effect of foreign commodity trade on India's GDP is amplified. According to the expenditure method, the GDP of a country or region is composed of "private consumption and investment, official consumption and investment, and net export for foreign trade". In the first 10 months of this year, India's foreign trade deficit hit a new high.
Compared with previous years, "net exports" will become the main drag factor that lowers the continued rise of India's economy. The deficit hit a new high, and foreign exchange is out of large quantities. Coupled with the depreciation of various currencies such as the euro, pound, and yen, India's official foreign exchange reserve will also be hit hard.
As of November 11, the total foreign exchange reserves of the Bank of India have dropped to US$529.994 billion, a loss of about US$130 billion compared with the nearly US$650 billion at its peak. debt default has increased its risk because of 's "good impression" of in Western countries, and the media has not over-explained it.
Secondly, the current high deficit is not caused by export shrinkage, but is benign. Data shows that the export volume of Indian goods in the first 10 months of this year increased by 16.7% year-on-year, which is a very high growth rate. This is because the price of imported goods has increased more, pushing up the deficit.
From an indirect perspective, external demand is still strong, and many Indian companies still receive a relatively abundant order. Especially under the influence of the "China plus 1" strategy adopted by Western countries, India has received considerable industrial transfer investment and its manufacturing strength has been strengthened.
Take the 2021-22 fiscal year as an example. The scale of foreign direct investment attracted by the whole Indian society reached a "record 83.6 billion US dollars", which is in a relatively high position among the global emerging economy . Among them, foreign investment introduced by the manufacturing industry was US$21.34 billion, an increase of up to 76% year-on-year.
If we put aside the huge commodity trade deficit and just observe the growth rate of commodity exports and the scale of foreign investment introduced, we can clearly see that India has benefited a lot in the context of the "regionalization" advocated by European and American countries from concentrated to more scattered.
Third, it is conducive to promoting the development of my country's intermediate products, especially equipment and equipment manufacturing industries. Against the backdrop of Western countries strengthening trade with India, Vietnam and other countries, the United States has replaced China and become India's largest trading partner. But there are great differences in the commodity trade structure between India and China and the United States.
000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 In other words, emerging economies including India and Vietnam have “spillovers in the downstream links of my country’s manufacturing industry.”
This is to some extent beneficial to the development of my country's equipment and equipment manufacturing industry. my country needs to strengthen its economic and trade with India, Vietnam and other countries in previous years while taking the opportunity to promote industrial upgrading and transformation.
Just as Chen Jing, vice president of the Science and Technology and Strategic Society of University of Science and Technology, said in an interview with the media: the outreach of the supply chain is essentially "grafting" China's manufacturing industry chain - China provides production equipment, various raw materials and components, produced in countries such as Vietnam and India.
At present, it is a critical opportunity period for the reconstruction of the global industrial chain and the adjustment of domestic industrial policies. All parts of my country should plan a number of major and advanced industrial projects in a targeted manner based on regional development advantages, and form a number of strategic fulcrums for the development of high-quality industrial chains, rather than keeping behind industries. This article is written by Nan Sheng. Please do not reprint or plagiarize without authorization!
