Recently, due to Apple suspending the production of one of its smart acoustic whole machine products, leading company Goertek shares hit the limit three consecutive , but was chased on Friday and had a transaction of nearly 10 billion yuan, setting a historical record. So, is Goertek's plunge in fundamentals storm or a gold pit?
Through the analysis of the incident, the explanation of listed companies, especially the recognition of Goertek's management capabilities, I personally prefer to believe that this incident was just a normal business accident, and the impact on Goertek's is limited to this incident, so market rumors and emotions exaggerate the impact. Therefore, the stock price plummet is a gold pit.
Affected by the accident Goertek shares plummeted continuously and was kicked off on Friday
suspended AirPods Pro2 orders are a normal commercial accident. Limited impact
During the trading session, it was reported that Goertek shares were suspended by Apple because of the fraud of yield rate. The chairman has come to the United States to apologize. At the same time, he also faces a huge fine. The order was also transferred to Luxshare and Axis Technology accordingly. Due to the integrity issues, market concerns have expanded to all Apple businesses, and even greater impact.
In response to this, on the evening of the same day, Goertek issued a risk warning announcement stating that a foreign customer (Apple) suspended the production of one of its smart acoustic whole machine products. However, it is emphasized that cooperation with Apple's other product projects is still under normal circumstances.
, and later, through media, conference calls and other forms, the company emphasized that the good rate in production did not meet Apple's requirements and was suspended. It was not deliberately concealed or there was no integrity problem, it was just a normal commercial accident, nor did suffer a huge fine . At the same time, other Apple businesses will not be affected and there is no problem of being kicked out of the Apple industry chain .
Then, well-known analyst Kuo Mingchi said that the suspended product may be AirPods Pro2, which is a new product just launched by Apple. Moreover, all related businesses were given , Luxshare Precision , but not AAC. Currently, Apple's AirPods business is manufactured by Luxshare and Goertek, and the market share of is close to 50% of 50% of 50% of .
AirPods Pro2
In response to this, Goertek said in the announcement that is expected to affect no more than 3.3 billion yuan in 2022, accounting for about 4.2% of the company's audited operating income in 2021. CITIC Securities subsequently stated that it is expected to affect 's profit .2 billion yuan. However, if the losses such as impairment of relevant assets and layoffs are taken into account, the impact of profit will be expanded, and the specific losses are still being calculated, and the company will announce them in the future.
I tend to believe in the company's explanation for market rumors and company explanations. Therefore, from this perspective, this incident was a single business accident, which raised it to the issue of integrity and was afraid of being kicked out of the Apple industry chain without factual basis.
If this is just a commercial accident, then the impact will be very limited, and the stock price plummet is a gold pit. Operating income and net profit account for not much, so it shouldn't plummet.
Moreover, if it was just an accident, it would not only not affect Goertek's other cooperation with Apple, but also the order for AirPods Pro2 also has room for improvement. After all, the company's announcement is just " suspended". Therefore, once the company makes rectifications and meets Apple's requirements, the orders will still flow back.
Since AirPods are only manufactured by Luxshare and Goertek, if they are all given to Luxshare, it is not in line with the interests of Apple's supply chain diversification. Therefore, from the perspective of business strategy, since all orders are given to Luxshare this time, there will be no spare tires, and it will definitely be necessary to return to reshape the diversification of the supply chain in the future.
Apple supply chain is quite diversified
It can be seen that this incident has not even had a substantial impact, and integrity, fines, kicking out of the industrial chain, etc. are all exaggerated. In addition, trust in the company's explanation also comes from trust in listed companies and management.
Goertek shares have solid fundamentals. The management is trustworthy. The fundamentals of Goertek shares have very solid fundamentals. They are one of the leading companies in the Apple industry chain and are in a battle with Luxshare Precision Yuliang. Judging from past performance and current performance, the company and its management are trustworthy.Moreover, the founder and actual controller of the company are , , Jiang Bin , who graduated from Tsinghua University, and his academic master's strength is credible.
Goertek is a rare enterprise that continues to grow high, and it has passed through the rapid growth period of smartphones and has successfully transformed. In the past 18 years, almost only Luxshare Precision and Goertek have traveled through the smartphone cycle and won the internal volume of the Apple industry chain.
Goertek is one of the few Apple industry chain companies that continue to grow
16 After 1999, the penetration rate of smartphone reached the top and entered the stock competition. Goertek relied on its competitiveness to win in the intra-volume, and became the OEM of Apple's wireless headphones AirPods with Luxshare Precision. In addition, Goertek Group has made a forward-looking layout in the virtual reality industry chain and entered the harvest period 18 years later, becoming the world's largest VR equipment OEM, and has the capability of the entire industrial chain. Goertek also incubated the pico brand, but because of a conflict of interest with the OEM business, it was forced to sell it to Toutiao. Under the Toutiao trading, pico is becoming the fastest growing VR brand. At present, Goertek shares have a global OEM market share of VR equipment as high as 70%, and its related business revenue has accounted for more than half, and it is growing rapidly.
In contrast, Luxshare Precision has also entered the mobile phone OEM business, becoming more and more like Foxconn . However, the gross profit margin of OEM business is getting lower and lower, and the business model is far less than that of the entire VR industry chain. It can be seen that Goertek shares are still slightly better in comparison with Luxshare.
In addition to maintaining the continuous growth of revenue, Goertek has passed the low point of industry internal conversion in 2016-18, and its profitability has rebounded. According to the analysis of DuPont, the increase in 's net asset return rate is mainly due to the increase in net profit rate and 's turnover rate . It can be seen that the operating quality has substantially improved.
Golle shares’ profitability has crossed the trough and rebounded
From the asset aspect, it can also be seen that Goertek shares’ excellence is. Goertek's assets are mainly composed of cash, accounts receivable, inventory, fixed assets and projects under construction. At the end of the third quarter of this year, it was RMB 12.2 billion, RMB 18.3 billion, RMB 19 billion, and RMB 22.7 billion, respectively, while the total assets were RMB 80.5 billion. Therefore, from this composition, revenue and inventory are a bit too much.
However, looking at the debts, the payables are as high as 30 billion yuan, which is much greater than 18.3 billion yuan of accounts receivable. It can be seen that Goertek has a strong voice in the industrial chain. Moreover, the company's liabilities are mainly current liabilities, with short-term loans of 9.9 billion yuan and long-term loans of only 1.5 billion yuan. This level of has a long-term liability for , which shows that the company's operations are quite healthy.
The market is worried that due to the suspension of orders, it will encounter asset impairment losses including inventory, fixed assets, and projects under construction. However, since the related business is relatively small and there is an expectation of order return, there may not be any major losses. Judging from the company's under construction projects, the significant growth in 21 years indicates the rapid growth of production capacity . At least the company has given expectations of continuing high growth. Judging from the prosperity of the virtual reality industry chain, it is expected to continue to maintain high growth.
Gol shares’ construction projects are increasing in an effort to maintain high growth
Conclusion
Overall, I believe in the company’s explanation, and I believe that there is no problem with the company’s management capabilities and integrity, and I am more willing to believe that long-term solid fundamentals are trustworthy. Therefore, it is believed that this accident is independent and has limited impact, so this plunge is a golden pit.
From the perspective of valuation, the company has forecast annual performance, with an expected net profit of nearly 5 billion yuan, and its current market value is nearly 60 billion yuan, which is almost 12 times the valuation. Even considering the future accident losses of almost 200 million yuan, the valuation is still relatively low. However, considering the rapid growth of the virtual reality industry and the possibility of AirPods orders may return without substantial impact, this valuation is relatively underestimated.
Referring to the beneficiaries of this accident, Luxshare Precision Dynamic P/E ratio is 25 times. It can be seen that Goertek shares have valuation advantages.
I think listed companies are credible, and their stock prices are gold pits. Do you agree? Welcome to comment and exchange.
