1. Market analysis:
On Thursday, Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened low and closed slightly lower. The three major indexes of the Federal Reserve rate hikes for four consecutive times, 75 basis points opened low , and then fluctuated and turned red for a while. Then they maintained the sideways trend, and a slight surged and fell back to before afternoon. In the afternoon, the three major indexes stopped falling and stabilized, and the ChiNext Index turned slightly red. At the close of the closing, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.19% to 2997 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.34% to 10840 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.01% to 2376 points. Northbound funds sold 4.5 billion yuan, and foreign capital continued to be net outflows. The total transaction volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 6886.5 billion yuan. The prudent sentiment warmed up due to the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike in . The trading volume showed a significant shrinkage.
2. Sector analysis:
Hidden lithium mineral stocks are some happy and sad. As the price of lithium carbonate continues to hit a new high, the market is more confused about the divergence trend of lithium prices and lithium mineral stocks. When lithium minerals first reached 500,000 yuan per ton last year, the stock price of lithium minerals basically rose to the right level, and there was a sense of high hopes. At present, lithium carbonate continues to hit a new high, but it has a great impact on the development of the domestic industry that mainly promotes the new energy industry chain. Compared with lithium carbonate, the largest expenditure cost for electric vehicles, and the domestic salt lakes are basically more lithium extraction, while the high-grade spodumene ore is mainly in Kangaroo Country. Although Tianqi and Ganfeng have acquired some of the better ore at low levels, it cannot change the phenomenon that the domestic demand gap is still short. Just like high-end chips are subject to other countries, the hidden dangers of being subject to our chip safety are relatively great. Just as media reported this morning, the Canadian Ministry of Industry asked three Chinese companies to divest their investments in Canada on November 2 local time on the grounds of so-called national security. This has caused certain troubles to our overseas layout of lithium ore. But it is good for domestic companies that own lithium mines. After all, the production source is small and the price is easier to maintain a high level, bringing high profits to the companies.
According to the data from Shanghai Ganglian , lithium prices continue to rise to nearly 600,000 yuan per ton. Yesterday, the quotes of some lithium battery materials rose, with battery-grade lithium carbonate rising by 1,500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 567,500 yuan/ton, and industrial-grade lithium carbonate rising by 2,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 554,000 yuan/ton, which continued to hit a record high; lithium hydroxide rose by 1,000-1,500 yuan/ton; lithium iron phosphate rose by 4,000 yuan/ton. The high prosperity of downstream consumption remains unchanged, the price of lithium salt has risen rapidly, and the price of lithium ore has hit a new high, which indirectly confirms the shortage of lithium resources. It is reported that Argentina, Bolivia, and Chile, are drafting a document to promote the establishment of an Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries in the lithium mine industry, aiming to enhance its bargaining power for lithium mines and demonstrate overseas attention to lithium resources. As Musk said lithium ore is white oil. From the supply side, the energy-saving lithium mineral resources will still not be released in large quantities in the short term, and most lithium projects have been postponing production progress since 2022. The domestic new energy vehicle , which ranks first in the world in new energy production, has a solid demand for lithium. At present, the shortage of raw materials and lithium concentrate is difficult to alleviate, and demand growth accelerated in the fourth quarter of 2022. In the short term, as the fourth quarter will enter the peak season of downstream demand, the salt lake may experience a reduction in supply and demand due to weather, or further tightening will strongly support the firmness of lithium prices. In the medium term, the progress of the construction of the of the Australian lithium ore project is lower than expected, and the supply of lithium ore in the next two years may be lower than market expectations. Solidian Mine is expected to maintain high stock prices and ultimately reflect its value.
3. Future market analysis:
Today's hot topics are mainly concentrated in photovoltaic , semiconductors, and large-scale consumption tourism hotels and commercial department stores. At present, the overall valuation of market is at a relatively low historical level. The opportunity outweighs the risks. As the third-quarter report disclosed, the results were revealed and the market negative news broke out. The oversold rebound has been seen. The index is expected to maintain a low level and stabilize after repeated bottoming out. Today, due to the continued momentum of the Fed's interest rate hike, the index still fluctuated in a narrow range of and performed strongly beyond expectations. The future market will focus on tracking the policy aspects, capital aspects, and epidemic prevention policy optimization related to domestic stable growth.At present, the focus is on the optimization of epidemic prevention policies. The stable style is waiting for the market to stabilize and pay attention to the opportunities of the products with good performance and low valuations, such as the big finance, food and beverage, and pharmaceutical sectors. Browse growth stocks with sufficient adjustments and clear performance growth when aggressive styles are low. Find industries with deep support for industrial policies to grasp the sectors with long slopes and thick snow. Of course, economic expectations management is also very important. As the saying goes, confidence is more important than gold. After all, in combination with the current price-to-earnings ratio of all A shares, is below 92% in history. Currently, the bottom area has greater opportunities than risks. The market is currently in the darkest stage before dawn. The index fell again and made panics feel that there is boundless darkness ahead of the market. The most stable white horse in the end of October made up for the decline. All sectors have reached extreme panic. The index has reached a new low and low-level chips that have entered the market. The purpose is to fully clean up the unstable chips and complete the bottom exchange to prepare for the next round of market conditions. This week, the Shanghai Composite Index focuses on 2950-point support and 3100-point pressure, while the Shenzhen Component Index focuses on 10500-point support and 12000-point pressure.
