(This article is excerpted from my original article "
In 2021, my country's fixed asset investment was 54.45 trillion yuan, an increase of 119.5 times over 1990, with an average annual growth of 16.72%; GDP was 114.3 trillion yuan, a 59.6 times higher than 1990, with an average annual growth rate of 14.16% (including inflation), but the total consumption of residents during the same period only increased from 0.94 trillion to 43.99 trillion yuan, a 46-fold increase, with an average annual growth rate of only 13.22%.
These three sets of data mean:
First, the efficiency of investment driving economic growth in 31 years has decreased. 1990 100 yuan investment can drive 420 yuan GDP. By 2021, 100 yuan investment can only drive 210 yuan GDP, and the investment efficiency has been halved in 31 years; so investment has increased by 119.5 times in 31 years, but GDP has only increased by 59.6 times;
Second, investment is ahead of consumption. 31 years, investment has increased by 119.5 times, but GDP has increased by only 59.6 times;
Second, investment is ahead of consumption. , the annual average growth rate of investment is 26.5% faster than consumption. After 31 years of accumulation, the growth rate of investment is 2.56 times that of consumption. That is, we have been investing ahead of consumption for 31 years;
Third, investment has squeezed consumption. Because we must adhere to the economic growth model of ahead of investment, in the distribution of national economy over the past 31 years, we have always insisted on tilting distribution towards investment, so the annual average growth rate of consumption in the past 31 years is 6.6% slower than GDP. The proportion of residents' consumption in the distribution of national consumption gradually shrank from 49.7% 31 years ago to 38.5%, and distributed to residents' The cake has shrunk by 11.2 percentage points.
It can be seen that it is difficult to maintain the investment-driven economic growth model simply by compressing residents' income. After the basic balance between consumption and supply, it is necessary to transform into the consumption-driven economic growth model in time to maintain the healthy and long-term development of the economy and not bring about a series of problems. This is also an important reason why all the developed economies in the world, consumption generally accounts for about 30 percentage points higher than our GDP.
