The number of new cases in the UK, France and Germany is increasing, mainly because 1. The temperature in the northern hemisphere has decreased, and 2. Some countries have lifted entry epidemic prevention restrictions. The new cars launched by Kia in 2022: Jiahua and Shibotuojie

. Macroeconomic

In early October, the number of new Cov19 cases worldwide rose slightly . The number of new cases in the UK, France and Germany is increasing, mainly because: ① The temperature in the northern hemisphere has decreased, ② Some countries have lifted entry epidemic prevention restrictions.

Hong Kong is gradually relaxing epidemic prevention regulations . It is likely that the entry epidemic prevention restrictions will be lifted on October 19. If the number of new severe cases or the increase in hospitalizations is not obvious, it will be of reference significance to the mainland. In September, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates at , the US dollar index rose, the currencies of major countries depreciate, and the German CPI rose to 10%

At the beginning of October, IMF lowered China's GDP forecast for in 2022 and 2023. The IMF said that China's real estate problems are very big, and the control of Cov19 is too strict. If these two problems are solved, what will happen to the IMF's bricks? In addition, the IMF also raised the GDP forecast for Germany and South Korea in 2022. It is really amazing. Because of the National Day holiday, comrades from the Bureau of Statistics will not release the main economic data for September on October 19, which is super slow. Now the State Council is promoting the digitalization of government affairs. For example, driver's license, medical insurance card, residence permit, , etc. have been electronicized and very convenient. Statistics Bureau should be one of the slowest departments in government affairs . It is estimated that a lot of data needs to be manually counted and approved at all levels. I don't know whether it needs to be beautified.

2. Passenger car market

html In September, passenger car sales were 2.293 million units, a year-on-year increase of 32.1% . The halving policy of purchase tax and EV subsidy policy of 2.0L and below will end in 2022, which will promote passenger car sales in October-December

. In September, the share of first-tier car companies (including car companies with monthly sales of more than 10,000 units) was 90%, hitting a new high in recent years. The Matthew effect intensified, and the ending of the Matthew effect can only rely on Black Swan event , and can only rely on deep localization to deal with Black Swan . In recent years, the share of joint venture car companies has continued to decline, mainly because localization is poor, and the decision-making department is in foreign countries. As long as the domestic environment changes, foreigners will understand the difficulties

html November-September, the EV penetration rate of MPV was only 6% . The main purpose of MPV is commercial use, and charging is more troublesome than refueling. The advantages of EV's -right-to-way are less attractive to it. From August to September, the sales of FAW's MPV Best NAT BEV were over 3,000 units. This model is cooperating with CATL to promote online car-hailing battery swap. Perhaps it is a way out for the development of MPV EV. In September, the price of lithium carbonate is still at a high level. 's price increase rate has dropped from 400% year-on-year in July to 170% year-on-year in September. In the first half of 2022, the profits of lithium mine enterprises rose sharply: Ganfeng Lithium Industry's net profit of was 72.5 billion yuan, an increase of 412% year-on-year, and Tianqi Lithium Industry's net profit of was 10.3 billion yuan, an increase of 119 times year-on-year. The profits of the electric vehicle industry chain stay in mining companies and are probably not long.

Ownership brand EV export news is gradually increasing, September:

• DFlantu exported 500 units in Norway
• JAC received orders for 500 passenger cars in the UAE
• NIO began to build battery swap stations in Hungary
• BYD will establish an EV factory in Thailand with a production capacity of 150,000 units. SOP

. The momentum of new car manufacturers is weakening

4-September, the monthly sales growth rate of new car manufacturers is less than that of the EV industry as a whole, more than Start-up The growth momentum of OEM is slowing down in

html. In September, the sales of WM were only 3,000 units, and last month it was 5,000 units. The listing prospectus of WM shows that its founder's annual salary in 2021 was 1.26 billion , which is indeed very NB. die

In early October, Ideal announced that it sold more than 10,000 units in September. I thought that One had stopped production, that is, L9 sold 1

0,000 units. My prediction of rational L9 in June was slapped in the face so quickly. Who knew that One had reduced the price by 20,000 units and bought 10,000 units

AutoPMD, official account: AutoPMD Ideal L9 sales forecast, negative online evaluation accounts for 80%

September, sales of Xiaopeng decreased by 6.4% year-on-year

NIO's new car ES7 was launched, in September, sales of old cars (ES8/ES6) decreased by

Leap After listing in Hong Kong on September 29, the stock price dropped from 43 yuan to 18 yuan (10/13)

If these new car manufacturers can predict that BYD is so strong now, many new car manufacturers will probably retreat. There are also Yijia, Baidu , Xiaomi new car manufacturers are coming in, admire

4. Some interesting car companies

1-September, SAIC Passenger Cars wholesale sales volume 610,000 units, of which 50% are exports, the second highest export penetration rate is Chery , 37%

from 20 Since 21 years, Ford has produced 5 high-end fuel models of the luxury brand Lincoln, , 4 SUVs and 1 sedan, but sales this year still declined year-on-year. This is a typical counter-trend. Launching new cars in the fuel car market with a declining share, the success rate is very low

Geely has 37 models on sale, and in September, only 2 : Boyue and Dihao . This is the result of playing with multiple brands: Dihao, Geometry, Lynk and Co , Zekr , and Ruilan . A typical 1+12, if combined for a long time, you will be divided, and if divided for a long time, you will be combined. In addition, let’s take a look at where Geely has invested its money in recent years? Making electric pickup trucks (there is a market in China?), and building Lotus electric sports car? Acquisition of British sports car Martin shares, build a battery swap station ( heavy asset , which was very lost in the early stage), build a battery factory (only CATL and BYD are making money), launch satellite (learning from Musk?), acquire mobile phone companies, plant melons and get melons and grow melons and grow melons and beans and beans and beans and beans and beans and beans and beans and beans and beans and beans

html In 19, Honda's share declined significantly, and its products rely too much on fuel car . Honda claims to buy a car and get engines. In the era of electric vehicles, the engine advantages are no longer useful. In addition, Honda HEV sales in September fell 21% year-on-year. Is it also a blame for the lockdown in a certain city that affects the supply of parts? If Honda's HEV can't be sold anymore, a group of independent brands that draw on Honda IMMD's technical route will begin to doubt their investment in the direction of HEV. I feel that the growth rate of HEV sales has slowed down, mainly because PHEV has a replacement for HEV

DF Nissan Sylphy HEV, with an average monthly sales of 1,900 units from January to September. The Nissan ePower technology route has not been accepted by users yet.

2022 new cars launched by Kia : Jiahua , Shibo Tuojie , which is much higher than the same platform model of Beijing Hyundai . Kia no longer has to worry about competing with Hyundai internally, but the new problem is that no one buys it. In September, Kia sold 7,000 units, of which 4,000 were exported, and 3,000 cars were sold in China, and 13 models were divided equally, and each car was sold for hundreds of units, which had no sense of market presence at all. When Kia was selling well around 2012, its advantage was its good-looking shape and high cost-effectiveness. Now these two selling points are gone. There was a news in August that a taxi driver was kneeling down to his Kia taxi. There was no accident in 800,000 km in 8 years. This is the cost-effectiveness. If you queue up for repairing a car, you will probably hate this car so much.I wonder how Kia's product director understands the word "inheritance"?

German car companies are increasing their investment in China . The Russian-Ukrainian war cannot be over in the short term. Both sides are very tough. It depends on who can consume whom. European companies must make plans early. In September, the Continental Changchun R&D building was opened, and plans to expand the second phase of

9. In September, BMW spent 60 million to buy a piece of land in Shenyang. If BMW goes to another city to build a factory, will it still cost to buy land? Many cities probably won’t be able to give it for free in

. In October, it was rumored that Volkswagen will invest 2.4 billion euros to build a joint venture software company with Horizon

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