found that many friends can't tell the difference between "trading system" and "trading rules". They always confuse the concepts of the two and mistakenly think it is a thing.
But in fact, the trading system is actually the integration of strategies at different levels and connects strategies with different orders, and then forming a judgment model for most market trends.
For example, two very simple strategies are integrated at different levels:
Large-level breakthrough strategy-trend judgment signal-follow the position on the right
Small-level callback strategy-advantage points intervention-direction Left stance
From the perspective of "time sequence", it must be first Only when there is a "trend" can the concept of "callback", then the trend establishment signal is the activation condition of the callback intervention strategy
At the same time, the size-level strategy has been integrated into the logical order by us, forming a trading system of "big right small left" (breakthrough and callback themselves are contradictory strategies, but they reach a unified system due to different levels)
Of course, risk control and warehouse management are also part of it. Here is just an example, I won't say more. If you are interested, you can read other articles.
So what are the transaction rules?
I think it is a manifestation of discipline, a kind of "boundary" to maintain the good operation of the system, and to ensure the stability of our "artificial traders" as much as possible through some rules. It is not limited to the system-wide, but a maintenance of abstract order.
. Don’t analyze anytime, anywhere. Only when the price reaches the node area can the trend be judged.
The most common mistake for novices is that When they know some methods, they always want to use them anytime, anywhere, trying to "see through" every move of the market through simple means.
hour or minute, if there is a positive K, it will be a big rise; after a while, a negative line will be bearish again; if it is flat, it will be more subjective, and it may be judged that it encountered obstacles before reaching resistance, and then went to open a position to try the order;
not to mention some main charts and attached figure indicators... is really a fierce operation, and there are still 25 left in the account.
In fact, is this judgment method good? I think it is bad
Because the small-level trend is very "random". Due to the disturbance of many factors, no one can accurately predict its trajectory (the top and bottom are not predictable, isn't it more difficult to predict the trajectory?)
is like a seed. When it has not sprouted, you cannot observe its growth under the soil. All we can do is rely on the law of large numbers (in a large number of repetitions, it often presents an almost inevitable rule) to accept the imperfection of the world and the possibility of failure.
But [Deduced Trend] is not the case. We are not using subjective feelings to animate the market fluctuations "script" , but identify the market structure in advance, identify the path of the trend operation according to the important nodes, and then judge the long and short pattern based on the specific status performance of the K-line when touching the node.
In other words, the trend is a fuzzy area outside the node, and it is difficult to judge the subsequent direction by a combination of single K or several K lines. You may not look at it. Only when it touches the node will the trend have analysis value. The so-called general will not chase the little rabbit.
Therefore, I often emphasize forward-lookingness. No matter what cycle you do, the market structure is the first thing that needs to be clear. It is not divided in advance. When the short-term trend changes abnormally, it will lose its positioning of the trend and momentum.
Once you lose your position, those invalid technical concepts in your mind will jump out one after another and interfere with rational judgment.
. Research the main logic that drives trend operation
judges the long-short pattern through the market structure, and then estimates the operating node of the trend, its essence is to split the major trend downward into stage trends.
Because the trend is not destined to happen once a breakthrough, it is the final result of continuous improvement in the trend over a long period of time. No one can take a look at the whole picture in advance.
That is to say, the expected continuous upgrading caused by the breakthrough of important nodes after successive breakthroughs form a stage trend. The unified direction of the trends in multiple stages forms the "big trend" we understand,
, rather than a major cycle, which will inevitably lead to the causal idea of the major trend after breakthroughs. Therefore, each important node is very important. will either be strengthened by the breakthrough before the trend, or it will form suppression and weaken the original trend momentum.
Starting from this logic, we can say that the strength of the trend in the next stage is often dominated by the previous stage, and future information about "trend continuation" and "kinetic strength" are all included in the current state.
So we must always recognize the complexity of the market trend. The truth of probability thinking is to transform a vague trading direction into distributed "probability module" and then evaluate the trading value of each independent opportunity for operation.
instead of as some friends think, the daily trend is clear, and short selling at highs in the short term, as if you won the "Gold Medal for Avoiding Death" based on a trend position. As long as you follow the trend, you will no longer lose orders.
is not actually the trend, as a high volatility in the market, and the drastic price difference changes, you will have a greater probability of stop loss, which has nothing to do with following the trend or against the trend.
And traders buy the present and sell the future; when the trend is unclear, you have the opportunity to reach the advantage point. Is there still a chance to get the trend when it is completely formed?
When everyone can see clearly, the consistent trading behavior of will lead to an overdraft of the price " risk premium " with excessively high price " overdraw its profit potential . Others holdings have begun to take profits. You catch up and start "building positions" along the trend. This is not a buyer.
From the perspective of market operation rules, there are speculative sentiment, self-reinforcement benefits, and selection bias effects. They always play a short-term role in certain specific areas. Therefore, the trend operation not only includes the supply and demand pattern, but also implies group consensus, group behavior, and the strength and weakness laws like rising and falling.
trend is uncontrollable, but the transaction strategy formed by the probability node is controllable, forming the logic of repeated execution, and finally obtaining a generally stable probability distribution . This is the true meaning of "consistency" we emphasize.
. How can we abide by our own trading rules
In fact, I have always emphasized the importance of "market cognition" and "strategy principle" . They seem to be some ideological issues and are not very helpful to the actual long and short judgments.
But on the contrary, for traders, the simpler their thinking, the more intuitive their views tend to be, and they are very likely to be disturbed by "meaningless" thoughts during the market watching process.
These thoughts may come from his hearsay techniques, or from some technical articles on Baidu , and what about it is the metaphysical theory advocated by the great masters.
Sometimes I think that the world of thought for novices should be very exciting. What concepts they may think of in the next second and what strategy signals they use to open positions are unknown.
Temporary intention can always arouse the secretion of adrenaline , because this is the physiological instinct of facing fear. When luck is good, people will feel great psychological satisfaction, but after a moment of satisfaction will turn into emptiness, and then they will be psychologically eager for the next "adventure stimulus". Many people say that he is evading learning, but rather that he is addicted to gambling stimulus.
The deeper the cognition, the more you can understand those deep logic, just like we are collecting "fragments". Every time we think through some, our mind will be more transparent. To a certain extent, the more professional we are about trading, the more we can control our behavior.
Because after we establish a trading system, it cannot cover all market conditions, nor can it be as precise as the second before the action. It always has contradictions
or the trading logic has failed phasedly, just like there will always be trends that will not play according to the "routine", the rhythm will disrupt the original arrangement, and finally create a system of doubt.
either has ambiguity in the transaction conditions and the timing is unclear, early or late; the level is vague, do not read the important ones, and pay too much attention to the non-important ones.
There is no one-time trading system. We are like building an abstract "judgment model" and then feeding it with a large amount of trading data. In the end, the ambiguity of the conditions will gradually become clear, and you will have an indescribable "sense of proportion", just like stepping on the brake. If the force is heavy, it will be disgusting, and if the force is light, it will not stop. The same is true for the transaction logic. For novices, they have a mess of understanding of the fluctuation laws. They know that the golden cross comes in and comes out dead. Is it use to talk about logic? Useless, something other than cognition.
Only when he breaks out of his own limitations and accepts more unknown knowledge can he slowly fill his cognitive gap, improve his understanding of the market, and finally summarize the deep laws under the appearance.
This is a "Look at the mountain is a mountain, look at the mountain is not a mountain, look at the mountain is still a mountain" From simple to complex and then return to the simple psychological process
I have always thought so!
So a friend said to me, why do you have to open an official account to write articles when you have other businesses - because in this way, you can grasp the fleeting thoughts in daily life. Perhaps some of them will be like flames. As long as you unravel the underlying logic, you will forge your thoughts at once. If you write a diary, you will be too lazy to read it, but the recognition of friends on the public account is positive motivation.
Some friends also said that you are not short of this little money, why do you want to start a course? Because the human brain has limited memory, even if it is established, it will gradually forget it. In the end, only two or three trading methods you are most accustomed to are left. After it becomes rigid and coping mode and thinking trend, it is undoubtedly fatal. Therefore, it is necessary to regularly sort out
, but it is difficult for people to fight their own laziness, so just make courseware, pay for external knowledge, and sort out iterate internally. This is a matter of balance between investment and benefits, so why not do it?
Finally, I will end up with this. The examples in the article are to clearly express the concept, not my trading system. Don’t copy and ignore the ideas in the article at will.
