Last week, especially on Thursday and Friday, the market experienced an overall decline, with institutional communication sentiment relatively sluggish and significant differences.
The representative views of the institutions are as follows:
1. There is almost no favorable situation in the near future, and the geopolitical ZZ situation is uncertain. The situation in Russia and Ukraine may usher in changes. Anti-globalization is accelerating beyond expectations, so we can only wait and see.
2. Overseas incidents have weakened the logic of new energy marginally, strengthened the logic of military industry and independent control, and the policy of real estate stocks has been increasing. The increase in concentration has always been said. The key is to look at the company's performance growth rate.
3. Many external factors are used as reasons when the decline is long. The market decline is essentially a high level of new energy, but the funds cannot find a new main line of longing. The military industry volume cannot accommodate enough funds. The overall semiconductor prosperity is not good. Most of the semiconductor materials equipment stocks that are not affected by the real estate performance are not low. The real estate chain is not flexible. Even if it is not clear which company will benefit from the future industry concentration of real estate, it is not clear, but ROE is downward.
Our view:
1. Geozz situation, in the long run, we are already in a new trend. In the medium term, Russia and Ukraine this year are a landmark event, but I think that there has not been much change now compared with the end of June (at the index high).
2. Under the disturbance of the epidemic, China's consumption, real estate and other domestic demand data in August were better than the market's pessimistic expectations. Chengdu, an important city that was previously troubled by the epidemic, also announced that it would restore production and living order in an orderly manner from the 19th. At the same time, real estate policies are still loosening in the trend, and subsequent domestic demand data are expected to be further better than expected. At the end of June, there was a bullish logic that was "compared with bad bulls". I think China's economic trend, which is relatively economic advantages over Europe and the United States, is now not weakened compared with the end of June, only strengthened.
3. What changes significantly is our emotional index. This week, the value has reached 6, not far from the freezing point when we reminded the annual gold pit on April 26.
4. We are more familiar with this type of moment, that is, we should not reduce our positions first, because the decline in this position will basically rise back, so we should buy more and more as we fall. Secondly, I think in the short term, we should first look at the ones with low logical resistance. One line is independent and controllable, especially the military industry with support for the prosperity (advanced fighter chain, advanced naval equipment chain, missile chain) and semiconductor equipment semiconductor materials. Another line is domestic demand, including real estate leaders and first-tier liquor. After this wave of adjustment of new energy, if the European situation and the underlying economic logic do not change significantly in the future, then after the valuation and congestion of high-quality companies in energy storage, photovoltaics and , which include wind power, should also be actively considered after the valuation and congestion of high-quality companies in the fields of energy storage, photovoltaics and , etc. Finally, after the market risk preference recovers, focus on emerging industries, including robots, automotive intelligence, VRAR, etc. According to the familiar rhythm before, I believe that it won’t take long to see a significantly higher position than now, hear a more optimistic voice than now, and various new terms for xx cattle appear.
