sales numbers are behind the company's core essence, so that we can see the future
bottoming out and rebound signal is obvious, and consumer medicine sounds the clarion call for counterattack. A consumer-themed fund manager said that under such a special situation this year, what we think the most is why the liquor industry has been a good industry for a long time, what are the reasons that support the industry's prosperity cycle in the past few years, what are the genes of excellent liquor companies, and what are our core points for liquor investment in research methods?
With these issues that everyone is most concerned about at the moment, this issue Baidajun connects with Hou Hao, deputy director of the quantitative investment department of China Merchants Fund and fund manager of China Merchants CSI Liquor Index Fund, and analyzes some misunderstandings about liquor behind sales figures with our "New Fund Investment 100 Questions and Answers to the Market".
Why is the liquor industry a good industry for a long time?
Investment Fund Hou Hao: We went to more than 30 wine companies in May. In a series of surveys, we verified some statements. There are cognitive gaps in barriers, craftsmanship, and reputation that the capital market observes and industries believe, as well as misunderstandings about companies with insufficient communication in the long-term strategy and brand determination.
In the long run, consumers prefer not the fragrance, while is the quality . What determines the long-term development of a wine company is not sales, but the ingenious creation of for the production end of vintage wine .
The dividend spillover caused by leading wine companies and the scarcity premium for production areas are more of a long-term concentrated outbreak of consumer mental cultivation. However, the remaining ones are not the fragrance type, but high-quality quality and precipitated raw wine, which has become a hot topic under the multiplier effect of marketing management and the beta of the times.
compares the long-term investment value of high-end companies. Although being squeezed by the top is not the best business, each company also has cyclical and volatility in the context of the development of the times, quality and uninterrupted production must be the foundation. Whoever can find the optimal solution under so many constraints in the time and space dimensions, think more clearly and understand the strategy, and execute more in place, and take care of all the interests of value creation links, can magnify its own advantages in the starting cycle, and whoever makes fewer mistakes in will have greater room for development and motivation for inheritance and development. Don’t bother, do what you are best at, do cost-effectiveness, make reputation, and make the product and brand the ultimate. A good industry beta does not represent a good company, nor does it represent a good price. Only the combination of the three is the most beneficial environment for investment (although the conclusions obtained by everyone with the same information may be different. Some people value the left side, some value the right side, some value growth, and some value value, but it is different. First of all, this business must have long-term value, and it can even be more fault-tolerant in the worst environment).
The integration and collision of modern organizational mechanisms and traditional industries are all opposite and unified among the companies we surveyed. Who can do the best and achieve long-termism (selling base wine , making private label vs. brand, only keeping wine but not buying wine) will have explosive potential in the future, and the choice of shareholders and decision makers will determine the result of the next round.
If an investment can make long-term judgments from the perspective of managers and the perspective of industrial capital , then the time and space for insight will be longer and greater. Focusing on short-termism is a process of quantification and arbitrage, but we cannot find great enterprises that can pass on and inherit the huge odds of growth that transcend the development of the times. From productism to product confidence realization O to 1. Only by not lying down and cherishing every opportunity in the long river of history can we be favored at the time when every round of opportunity comes.
Long-term success is not just simple luck and innate advantages, answering long-termist questions and viewing fluctuations objectively in the dimension of time and space of history.
Liquor stocks have ushered in a significant pullback this year. What is the reason behind it?
Hou Hao: liquor industry will also have cyclical characteristics especially for different companies, but because the strong moat of business models is better than many other industries; liquor has entered the latest recovery period since 2016, but this round of trends is not a comprehensive improvement in the industry, but a structural opportunity for high-end and sub-high-end prices.
Back to the current situation, the core factor of the differentiation of interim performance is the industry development stage leading to: liquor has entered the latest recovery period since 2016, but this round of trends is not a comprehensive improvement in the industry, but a structural opportunity for high-end and sub-high-end prices. The interim report data of liquor will show differentiation characteristics: brand differentiation : companies with real sales performance steadily; regional differentiation; price band differentiation : high-end wine growth is steady, and sub-high-end price band continues to increase in volume. And behind the differentiation is industry factors, and the industry may usher in a structural clearance. Some wine companies are gradually giving up their market share, which is beneficial to high-quality wine companies oriented towards actual consumption. The trend of the liquor industry is still upward.
Liquor still has its own advantages and characteristics than most industries, but it still has the characteristics of cycle, survival of the fittest, and capital-intensive. The characteristics of heavy capital have been ignored in past research; in the current environment, small wine companies will accelerate their clearance, and the future market belongs to large enterprises with strategic determination, high-quality wine stocks, and strong execution. The current situation is that whoever is in chaos will be eliminated. The liquor industry has a long-term investment value for large companies. If the economic environment improves and the consumption scenario returns to normal, liquor, as an investment product in the post-cycle and social scenarios, will surely have momentum in the future.
We believe that the market is gradually digesting the second quarter performance, the sector has entered a stage of differentiation and realization, and the main investment line has returned to certainty.
Mid-Autumn Festival sales are relatively dull under the disturbance of the epidemic, but basically meet expectations. High-end wine companies' cash collection sales are still relatively smooth. Real estate leaders are affected by regional market differentiation, and non-epidemic areas perform well. Considering that the interval between Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day this year is long, sales during the two festivals need to be judged in conjunction with the National Day situation. The demand for some banquets in is also expected to be replenished during the National Day holiday. With large fluctuations in the consumption environment, the market operation capabilities of major liquor companies have been significantly improved, and core indicators such as inventory, wholesale price, and product structure are well controlled, which can effectively resolve the impact of the external environment. The fundamentals of the sector are expected to be at a low level, and it is expected to usher in marginal improvement in in the future. Continue to pay attention to the trend of consumption recovery, especially the peak season sales. The liquor sector may still have good allocation value under the trend of consumption upgrading and concentration increase.
This article is from the financial industry
