A shares finally rebounded, but the rebound was very weak. One important reason is that the RMB exchange rate has a relatively large impact. Today, the RMB once reached 7.17 against the US dollar, only one step away from the historical 7.19. is the highest value since 2010. Once it is broken, it is easy to cause further panic among funds .
breaks 7, central bank can ignore it, but the central bank still took action at this position. Today, the central bank raised the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio of forward foreign exchange sales business from 0 to 20%, and the purpose is relatively clear. is to stabilize foreign exchange market expectations and strengthen macro-prudential management .
indicates that the central bank has begun to pay attention to the RMB exchange rate, and it will inevitably take action if it rises. The so-called forward foreign exchange sales business refers to the fact that the bank and the customer agreed to sell US dollars to the company's business at a certain time in the future. The benefit of this business to the company is that it can lock the exchange rate in advance.
Then the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio of forward foreign exchange sales business is not difficult to understand. It is somewhat similar to statutory reserve ratio , and its purpose is relatively clear. should still prevent enterprises from excessive short selling and bearish on the RMB from a trade perspective.
Obviously, this is a relatively long-term strategy, and the impact on the short-term depreciation of the RMB is not so obvious. If you want to snipe short RMB funds in the short term, you must also rely on shrinking the liquidity of the RMB. , especially the RMB liquidity in the peripheral markets, such as Hong Kong and Singapore market .
This wave of depreciation of the RMB, or the depreciation of non-US currencies, is due to the strength of the US dollar and the strongest of the Federal Reserve hike rate . It is still relatively difficult to change this expectation.
Today, A-shares also want to try to rebound, but with the strong US dollar and RMB weak, the rebound does not seem to be as confident. Today's situation gives us two inspirations. The rebound demand for A-shares has already existed. You see, even northbound funds have begun to buy net, which means that large funds are slowly forming this expectation.
However, the rebound window has not arrived yet because the US dollar is accelerating its strength and the RMB is accelerating its depreciation. Therefore, when A-shares rebound, must be the day when US dollar rises and falls and the RMB stabilizes . Therefore, US dollar against RMB 7.2 is an important threshold . It depends on how the central bank operates this matter.
The possibility of this operation is still very high. You see, although the US dollar has been in a strong position, a callback window will appear every once in a while. This should be the opportunity that the central bank and A-shares should focus on. If the RMB is allowed to depreciate at an accelerated rate, this is a very dangerous thing .
It is not the time to panic now
Today there is obviously a foresighted capital. The northbound funds have begun to act. The northbound funds are counted as one, Northbound net purchases of 4.2 billion , Kweichow Moutai , China China Duty Free and Wuliangye and other consumption white horse stock is the first choice.
Also, from the performance of the sector today, the consumer sector clearly feels back. In the accommodation, catering, liquor and other sectors, many consumer blue-chip stocks have begun to have funds involved.
There is another sector, the wind and photoelectric storage track is beginning to return, CATL and BYD have stabilized for a week ahead of schedule, which can represent the situation of large funds. The concept of heat pump is an important branch of the track, inverter , etc. The leader in the track stocks are also stabilizing.If the leader of the track stabilizes and gradually begins to rebound, this will give the funds the greatest confidence.
To be honest, some sectors have made up for the decline today, which has affected their emotions, but it is obvious that the most difficult time has passed, so there is no need to be too pessimistic.
The market sentiment today is relatively pessimistic. I can’t read too much and read too much speech. I think in reverse. The lowest point of emotion actually represents the approaching of the bottom.
You can also look at US stock futures. It still fell during the day today. When the A-shares closed, it entered the European trading period. US stock futures have reversed, indicating that US stocks also want to rebound. US stocks have been adjusting recently. Nasdaq index has been adjusting for nine months, and US stocks also need a rebound window .
Overall, everything is not pessimistic, but a big rebound is coming soon.
