Investment points
We believe that for this week's domestic high-frequency data, we should focus on the following points:
First, the strong rebound in commercial housing sales this week may be related to seasonal factors, and pay attention to the sustainability of strengthening commercial housing sales. This week, the sales area of commercial housing in cities of all levels showed a relatively strong upward trend, and the main reason may be the seasonal rebound in commercial housing demand under the "Golden September and Silver October". Overall, the absolute level of commercial housing sales area and housing price trends in second- and third-tier cities are still weak, and the significant rebound in commercial housing sales may be difficult to sustain.
Second, industrial production has rebounded, but the absolute level may still be weak in season. Judging from the operating rate data this week, the operating rates of blast furnaces, polyester filaments, PTA, and automotive steel tires have a relatively obvious recovery trend, but the absolute level of operating rates of most industrial products is still lower than the same level in previous years, which may indicate that my country's industrial production is currently in a low recovery state.
Third, crude oil prices have fallen significantly as global recession expectations heat up. This week, the Federal Reserve held a September FOMC meeting and announced the interest rate resolution of hiking interest rates at 775bp, and the dot chart shows that the degree of the Federal Reserve's hawkishness exceeded market expectations. Against this background, the market's expectations for a global recession have further heated up, and international crude oil prices have fallen sharply.
Overview of domestic high-frequency data tracking this week:
Major asset performance: Bond market rises, stock market falls.
Terminal demand recovery status tracking:
) Real estate: commercial housing transaction area is strong seasonally; ) Construction: rebar slightly destocked, but the profit rate of steel mills is still declining significantly; ) Consumption: automobile consumption wholesale sales were better than retail sales year-on-year, and movie consumption was at a seasonal low; ) Export: CCFI fell sharply. Industrial production and logistics flow status tracking:
) Industrial production: operating rate rebounds at a low level; ) Cargo circulation: logistics level rebounds significantly; ) People flow: trend rises, and the total volume remains low. Commodity Status:
) Coal: Coke futures prices rose; ) Steel: iron ore and rebar futures prices rose; ) Nonferrous metals: aluminum, zinc, and copper prices fell; ) Crude oil: prices fell sharply; ) Chemical: most chemical products prices fell; ) Cement: East China, Central and South China regions drove the national prices up month-on-month; ) Glass: glass, soda ash prices rose; ) Agricultural products: pork prices continued to rise.
Risk warning: macro-control and monetary policy exceed expectations, and the real estate market exceeds expectations.
Report text
We believe that for this week's domestic high-frequency data, we should focus on the following points:
First, the strong rebound in commercial housing sales this week may be related to seasonal factors, and pay attention to the sustainability of strengthening commercial housing sales. This week, the sales area of commercial housing in cities of all levels showed a relatively strong upward trend, and the main reason may be the seasonal rebound in commercial housing demand under the "Golden September and Silver October". Overall, the absolute level of commercial housing sales area and housing price trends in second- and third-tier cities are still weak, and the significant rebound in commercial housing sales may be difficult to sustain.
Second, industrial production has rebounded, but the absolute level may still be weak in season. Judging from the operating rate data this week, the operating rates of blast furnaces, polyester filaments, PTA, and automotive steel tires have all seen a relatively obvious recovery trend, but the absolute level of operating rates of most industrial products is still lower than the same level in previous years, which may indicate that my country's industrial production is currently in a low recovery state.
Third, crude oil prices have fallen significantly as global recession expectations heat up. This week the Federal Reserve held a September FOMC meeting to announce an interest rate resolution of 75bp, and the dot chart shows that the Fed's hawkishness exceeded market expectations.Against this background, the market's expectations for a global recession have further heated up, and international crude oil prices have fallen sharply.
Major asset performance: Bond market generally rises, stock market generally falls
This week's commodity index trends differentiate, among which the precious metal index, metal index, and industrial product index rose, the precious metal index rose the most, with an increase of 2.33%; the energy chemical index and agricultural product index fell, and the agricultural product index fell the most, with an increase of 0.81%.
This week, the bond index generally rose, and interest rate bonds performed better than credit bonds overall. Among them, China Bond-China Development Bank bond index rose the most in 7-10, with an increase of 0.12%.
The stock index fell across the board this week, with the ChiNext Index falling the most, with a drop of 2.68%.
Terminal demand recovery status tracking
Real estate: The transaction area of commercial housing is strong seasonal.
Judging from the listing price index for urban second-hand housing sales, housing prices in cities of all levels generally fell this week, and the national housing prices continued to fall.
Affected by seasonal factors, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 cities has increased significantly this week, and the transaction area of commercial housing in first-tier cities is relatively strong, but the transaction area of commercial housing in second- and third-tier cities is still significantly weaker than the same period in previous years (only slightly stronger than the same period in 2021).
This week, the land area of transactions in 100 cities fell, and the absolute level was at a seasonal low; the land premium rate of transactions in fell, and it is still in a low fluctuation state.
Construction: Rebar is slightly removed, but the profit rate of the steel mill is still declining significantly.
Rebar inventory fell slightly by 2.09 percentage points this week; steel mill profit rates fell by 5.62 percentage points to 47.19%; cement price index rose slightly.
Judging from the indicators such as cement price and rebar inventory, the terminal demand for construction construction this week may improve marginally, but the continued decline in steel mill profit rates may indicate that the terminal demand for rebar may still be weak. In the future, we should continue to pay attention to the marginal changes in terminal demand during the peak construction season.
Automobile consumption: Wholesale sales are better than retail sales year-on-year.
Last week, the overall narrow passenger car market wholesale rose by 46% year-on-year, and retail rose by 28% year-on-year. Judging from the sales data, my country's automobile consumption is still relatively strong, and the wholesale sales of passenger car manufacturers are better than the retail sales year-on-year.
Movie consumption: at a seasonal low.
The number of movies released on the same day, the number of viewers and the box office of the week has all declined. The current box office level and the number of viewers are at a seasonal low. The recent recurrence of local epidemics may have a significant inhibitory effect on film consumption.
Export: CCFI fell sharply.
This week's shipping index continues to the differentiation trend last week. Among them, the CCFI index fell by about 5.10% month-on-month, and the prices of routes such as Bohong, South America, East America, and Mediterranean fell significantly month-on-month; the BDI index rose by about 12.66% month-on-month, showing signs of obvious recovery, and the trend was stronger than the same period in previous years.
The United States' high inflation combined with tightening monetary policy has squeezed demand, and the downward pressure on the global economy has intensified. The subsequent trend of foreign demand gradually weakening export support for my country may continue.
Industrial production status tracking
Industrial production: The operating rate rebounds at a low level.
This week, the coal consumption of coal in the eight coastal provinces fell seasonally, with a downward magnitude of about 3.5%, but the absolute level is still at a seasonal level.
From the perspective of operating rate, the national blast furnace operating rate rose to 82.81% this week, a month-on-month increase of 0.40 percentage points from last week; the operating rate of petroleum asphalt equipment fell slightly by 0.3 percentage points from last week to 44.2%; the operating rate of domestic PTA operating rate rose slightly by 2.69 percentage points to 70.60%; the operating rate of polyester filament increased slightly; the operating rate of automobile semi-steel tires and all-steel tires increased significantly.
Most of the operating rates have rebounded this week, but the operating rates of industrial products such as petroleum asphalt devices, PTA, polyester filaments, and automobile tires are still at a seasonal low level, which may indicate that my country's industrial production is currently in a low recovery state.
Logistics flow status tracking
Cargo circulation: The logistics level has rebounded significantly.
From the perspective of cargo circulation, the vehicle freight flow index and public logistics park throughput index both rebounded significantly this week, but the absolute level was still significantly lower than the same period last year.
People flow: the trend rises, the total volume remains low.
This week, the congestion delay index and subway passenger volume in Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen both rebounded significantly. At present, the congestion delay index in Beijing and Shanghai is basically the same as the seasonal level, and the Shenzhen congestion delay index is still slightly weaker than the same period in previous years. The passenger volume of subways in Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen is at a seasonal low, which may indicate that the impact of the epidemic still has an impact on residents' subway travel, and has changed the travel habits of people to a certain extent.
Commodity status tracking
Coal: Coke futures prices rise.
This week, the spot price of thermal coal rose by 0.14%; the futures price fell by 1.10% month-on-month.
This week's spot price of coke fell by 0.08% month-on-month; futures prices generally rose by about 5.37% month-on-month.
This week, the inventory of thermal coal ports rose by about 2.11% month-on-month; the inventory of coke ports fell by about 1.49% month-on-month.
Steel: Iron ore and rebar futures prices rise.
This week, the spot price of iron ore fell by about 2.28% month-on-month, and the futures price rose by about 0.77% month-on-month.
This week, the spot price of rebar rose by about 0.17% month-on-month, and the futures price rose by about 1.95% month-on-month.
This week's rebar inventory fell by about 2.09% month-on-month; sample steel mill profits fell by 5.62 percentage points to 47.19%.
Nonferrous: aluminum, zinc and copper prices decline. Judging from the price of
, the prices of aluminum, zinc and copper futures fell this week, down 4.19%, 2.27%, and 3.28% month-on-month respectively.
Global inventory, this week, Lun copper inventory rose by 22.28% month-on-month, while Lun zinc and Lun aluminum inventory fell by about 18.79% and 2.10% month-on-month.
This week, gold and copper rose by about 3.16% month-on-month.
Crude oil: Prices fell sharply.
This week's IPE Brent Oil Futures price fell 6.92% to $85.03 per barrel, which may be related to the upward trend of concerns about global recession under the Fed's interest rate hike.
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories last week rose by about 0.27% month-on-month compared with the previous week.
Chemicals: Most chemical products prices have fallen.
Most chemical products prices fell this week. Among the oil-chemical products, the price of fuel oil fell by about 1.20% month-on-month, and the price of asphalt rose by about 1.43% month-on-month; among the coal chemical products, the price of ethylene glycol fell by 0.72%, and the price of methanol fell by about 1.93% month-on-month; among the other chemical products, the price of styrene rose by about 2.69% month-on-month, and the price of PTA fell by 1.02%, and the price of polypropylene , PVC, and LLDPE fell by 0.94%, 3.04% and 0.73% month-on-month, respectively.
Cement: East China and Central and Southern regions drive national prices to rise month-on-month.
This week, the national cement price rose by about 1.77% month-on-month.
subdivision, cement prices in most provinces and cities across the country rose this week, with Henan rising the most, with an increase of 11.84%, and Chongqing falling by a significant 6.36%.
Glass: Prices of glass and soda ash have risen.
This week's glass futures price rose by about 1.68% month-on-month, and soda ash futures price rose by about 4.80% month-on-month.
Agricultural products: Pork prices continue to rise.
This week's pork price rose by 2.73% month-on-month, and has accumulated a 12.89% increase since August 15.
This week's vegetable prices fell sharply by about 8.43% month-on-month.
Risk warning: Macro-control and monetary policy exceed expectations, and the real estate market exceeds expectations.
20220918 Retracement may provide a better buying point
20220917 "Ice and Fire" on both supply and demand ends of construction construction - weekly tracking of domestic high-frequency data (2022.09.17)
20220916 There is a marginal improvement, but it should not be overestimated - August economic data comment
20220912 Exchange rate depreciation may be just a disturbance item in the interest rate market
20220910 Supply strength characteristics are obvious, pay attention to the sustainability of social financing improvement - August financial data comment
20220905 Go with the trend - bond market outlook for September
20220831 The economy is still facing pressure to decline ——Comment on PMI in August
20220829 How do you view the market fluctuations and subsequent trends after the interest rate cut?
20220822 What other valuation depressions are there?
20220804 Revenue from the maturity spread ——Bond market outlook for August
Analyst statement
Note: The report in the article is based on the research report that has been published by the Industrial Securities Economic and Financial Research Institute. For details, please refer to the full version of the report.
Securities Research Report: "[Xingzheng Fixed Income. Interest Rate] Real estate sales rose seasonally, industrial production rebounded at a low level - Domestic High-frequency Data Weekly Tracking (2022.09.25)"
External Release Time: September 25, 2022
Report Release Institution: Industrial Securities Co., Ltd. (has been qualified for securities investment consulting business licensed by China Securities Regulatory Commission )
Analyst of this report:
Huang Weiping SAC Practice Certificate Number: S0190514080003
Zuo Dayong SAC Practice Certificate Number: S0190516070005
Research Assistant: Liu Zheming
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