Recently, the U.S. Department of Labor released data, in which the price index CPI, which has attracted much attention from the outside world, increased by 9.1% year-on-year in the past month, which means that the United States' inflation problem is further worsening , Wall Street Analysts from major investment banks said that the price level will still run at a high level in the future, and there is no time to peak.
The inflation problem is getting worse, casting a shadow over the U.S. economy and also impacting the daily lives of the American people. Analysts said that after price increases significantly exceeded market expectations, the Federal Reserve may violently raise interest rates, and the next interest rate hike cycle may increase the federal funds rate by 100 basis points.
Although raising interest rates can suppress inflation to a certain extent, it will also plunge the economy into recession. The American people hope that the federal government will use measures that can not only ensure the continued recovery of the U.S. economy but also suppress prices to alleviate the current crisis. Inflationary pressures.
And the complete lifting of high tariffs on goods imported from China has become another option to solve the inflation problem in addition to the Federal Reserve raising interest rates.
However, according to the news revealed by the US media, although US President Biden has plans to lift tariffs on Chinese goods exported to the United States, only about 10 billion U.S. dollars worth of Chinese goods may be able to enjoy this favorable policy, and this distance There are obviously considerable discrepancies in previous rumors that Biden may cancel tariffs on US$370 billion worth of Chinese goods exported to the United States.
American media believe that the reason for the huge discrepancy is that the White House has some concerns. On the one hand, the elimination of tariffs on some Chinese goods exported to the United States proves that Biden is working hard to solve the domestic inflation problem. This can be regarded as giving the American people an explanation of . On the other hand, Biden does not dare to fully withdraw the tariffs imposed on Chinese goods for fear of being criticized by some domestic hawkish politicians for "showing weakness towards China."
US media said that against the background of tense Sino-US relations, every move by Washington involving China has always received high attention. Since taking office, Biden has established a tough tone towards China. If he gives in on the tariff issue, it means that Biden's China strategy has changed, which may attract criticism from some politicians, so Biden can only take this approach. Method.
In addition, the tariff issue is also regarded by some hard-line politicians in the United States as a powerful bargaining chip to attack China or hold dialogue with China. In particular, a group of people led by US Trade Representative Dai Qi not only asked Biden not to cancel tariffs on Chinese goods. tariffs, and also hopes that the United States will increase its scrutiny of Chinese goods entering the U.S. market.
From this point of view, the current approach taken by Biden may be the most reasonable choice under the current situation, balancing the interests of all parties. However, according to the American media "Diplomat", The United States has also paid a price.
A few days ago, "Diplomat" wrote an article saying that Biden's exemption of tariffs on some goods exported from China to the United States has certain positive significance, but because the action is a bit late and the amount of goods exempted from tariffs is too small, it is difficult for to Easing tense Sino-US relations and the severe inflationary pressure faced by the United States will bring substantial help.
data shows that China’s exports of goods to the United States in 2021 will reach 576.114 billion U.S. dollars. If Biden really only exempts Chinese goods worth 10 billion U.S. dollars from tariffs, then this part of the goods will only account for 1.73% of China’s exports of goods to the United States. Indeed, there will be no Too much meaning. The article stated that the "trade war" provoked by the United States and the imposition of high tariffs on Chinese goods have not reversed the change in the trade positioning between China and the United States.
According to statistics, in 2018, before the Sino-US trade war broke out, China's trade surplus with the United States was US$323.3 billion, and in 2021, China's trade surplus with the US expanded to US$396.5 billion. In other words, the "trade war" launched by the United States has allowed China to earn an additional US$73.2 billion from the United States.
However, the United States has become the "payer" of this trade game. A study by Moody's shows that more than 90% of the trade costs increased by the "trade war" between China and the United States are borne by the United States.
Matthew Shea, chairman of the National Retail Federation, said in an interview with the media that since the outbreak of the trade war in 2018, the U.S. Customs Department has levied a total of US$136.5 billion in tariffs on Chinese goods, equivalent to approximately 920 billion yuan . And these tariffs were eventually passed on to American consumers.
Shea said that the White House tried to punish China by imposing additional tariffs, but ended up punishing itself. The article stated that in the face of the "trade war", China has not surrendered, but is developing its foreign trade step by step. More and more cases have confirmed that the "trade war" has caused the greatest losses to the United States.
At present, regarding Biden’s plan to exempt US$10 billion worth of additional tariffs on Chinese goods, from a practical point of view, it is still impossible to reverse the current situation. Unless major actions are taken, Sino-US trade friction will continue to exist.
Some rational American economic people said that the relationship between the United States and China is one of the most important bilateral relations in the world. China and the United States are highly complementary in the economic and trade field. At a time when inflationary pressure in the United States continues to grow, China and the United States It is in the best interests of the United States for trade to return to normal.
