What’s embarrassing is that in recent years, with the gradual loss of first-mover advantages, the main business market has been diverted, and there are no new hot products that can support the second growth curve, the gap between Wolong and the latecomers has become wider and wid

Article | FMCG, author丨Li Ke

Recently, Wolong Food, the "inventor" of the " daily nuts " category, disclosed its IPO prospectus and plans to list on the Shanghai Stock Exchange main board. This news has brought renewed attention to the daily nuts category. The embarrassing thing is that in recent years, with the gradual loss of first-mover advantages, the main business market has been diverted, and there are no new hot products that can support the second growth curve. There is a gap between Wolong and the latecomer Qiaqia But it's getting bigger and bigger.

As we all know, the melon seeds and nuts market itself is too homogeneous, that is, the product moat is extremely low, and it is difficult to make "hot products". So, putting aside the clichéd supply chain factors, why does Qiaqia Nuts, which is considered to be "could be knocked down with one kick", seem to be getting better and better?

"Red Sea" nuts, differentiated operations

Recently, there is a Qiaqia Distribution According to dealers, Qiaqia's growth target for this year is still relatively positive. Guokui's growth target varies by region, ranging from 10% to 15%. Among them, some mature dealers with larger volumes only have single-digit growth targets. However, the growth target of the nut category is generally high, around 50%; if according to the current epidemic situation, no new SKUs and new scenarios emerge, this will put certain growth pressure on dealers.

However, he also said that the growth rate of nut products has slowed down since February due to the impact of the epidemic and group buying demand, but the growth level is still around 20%-30%. The implication is that although there is considerable pressure, we are still optimistic about the next performance of Qiaqia Nuts.

It is understood that from the perspective of the product structure of dealers, the sales of Qiaqia Nuts in first- and second-tier cities now account for about 30% of the overall Qiaqia products. In third-, fourth- and fifth-tier cities, this proportion is about 18%-20%. Overall it is about 25%. From the perspective of consumption scenarios, the demand for group purchases has been reduced to 30%-40%, and the remaining 60% is mostly daily personal consumption.

It is not difficult to see that in the past, the sales scene of Qiaqia Nuts was mainly group purchases in hypermarkets, but the trend is that daily consumption is increasing; now daily consumption in channels such as fruit stores is also increasing. This is an important reason why Qiaqia dealers are more confident in the nut category after the initial trial period.

It should be noted that since the industry’s attention to Qiaqia Nuts is mainly focused on the supply chain, what many people in the industry may not know is that the sales of Qiaqia Nuts are actually largely attributed to “ Yili , Mengniu " pull. A dealer of

said that in recent years, Qiaqia's nut category has been implementing the "milk-sticking" strategy, in other words, selling "close to" milk at the terminal. Specific measures include: in some big cities, with relatively large passenger flow and influential terminal stores, we will conduct joint promotions with brands such as Yili and Mengniu, as well as provide food tasting and consumption guidance. We will also work with big-name milk brands during live broadcasts. Do; in small stores, nut products and milk are displayed together to guide consumers to buy them together.

Industry insiders believe that the distribution rate of milk is very high, and there is a lot of demand for gifts. At the same time, the turnover speed is very fast; and Qiaqia Nuts are sold next to milk, which naturally enhances its daily consumption attributes. Quickly boosted the distribution rate.

The above-mentioned dealer revealed that Daily Nut Oatmeal has launched a new specification of 10-day packaging, and at the same time reduced the retail price to 59 yuan. This product is more compatible with the early channel expansion and the channel’s price band . Its price band is very close to the price band of milk (ranging from 55-65 yuan), and the products will also be displayed next to the milk. Qiaqia is currently looking for some cities to conduct pilot projects. If the effect is not good, it will review and summarize the reasons to solve the problem, and then promote it on a large scale. Other single products will also try this method. If the promotion is launched, the 10th-day clothing may soon catch up with the 15th-day clothing in the future.

Looking forward to the whole year of 2022, the above-mentioned dealers said that the nut category will still be the focus of growth. Among them, the key item is still the daily nuts in rooftop boxes on the 15th. The current channel distribution rate of this product is only just over 30%. Compared with the distribution rate of melon seeds, which is at least 80%-90%, there is still much room for improvement. There is still a lot of room for improvement in the distribution of 5-day and 7-day clothing in community stores and lifestyle supermarket channels.In addition, some dealers reported that the company is trying to promote the sale of smaller 10-day packages in some areas.

Pragmatic advancement, basic skills "behind the scenes"

Compared with sparing no effort in publicity and investment in the supply chain, Qiaqia has actually done a lot of work on the channel side in a relatively low-key manner.

An Anhui dealer said that there will be no subsidies for logistics vehicles for channel intensive cultivation this year, only basic salary subsidies for personnel. The company gives you a basic salary (ranging from 3,500 yuan to 4,500 yuan depending on the city) + process rewards (for example, if you complete a section of shelves or make piles on the floor, the company will assess and distribute rewards, which are roughly 700-800 yuan per month).

In addition, the dealer also revealed that after July 1, the sales teams of Guokui and Nut will be merged, which will reduce the pressure on dealers and no longer need to deal with two shifts of sales teams. Management is merged, but goals and operations are still separate. Dealers' expenses are reported separately. Although personnel are merged, two different expense reporting systems are adopted. There is no situation where nuts are not taken seriously, and the assessment of nuts is still the same. Very strict.

It is understood that the current problem with the intensive cultivation of Qiaqia channels is that the process is difficult to control, because Qiaqia’s products are not as large as water, drinks, milk, etc. The purchase volume of small terminals such as community stores is very small, and more salesmen need to be added number of people, but the output per piece is relatively low, so the labor cost is relatively high.

In fact, the financial report also shows that in 2021, Qiaqia's sales staff expanded from 447 at the beginning of the year to 688 at the end of the year, which not only reversed the company's continuous decline in sales personnel over the past nine years. In fact, judging from dealer feedback, the increase in sales personnel has indeed effectively accelerated the implementation of channel strategies.

It is worth noting that Qiaqia’s melon seeds, especially Guokui products, are still “hard currency”. Especially in strong markets such as South China and Central China, the distribution rate is very high. There are also red bags and blue bags. The rate even reaches over 95%, which is unmatched by competitors.

A dealer said that in the second quarter of this year, Guokui's growth accelerated "due to" the epidemic. Nut products were affected to a certain extent, and many dealers completed their full fiscal year growth targets ahead of schedule. Among them, some larger dealers were still able to achieve 30%-40% growth in April and May when the epidemic was more serious. The stability of Qiaqia's melon seed business has obviously given more confidence to the continued advancement of the nut business.

In fact, in addition to Wolong, companies whose main business is nuts include three squirrels . From the perspective of dealers, Three Squirrels is gradually moving from online to offline. At present, Three Squirrels products are still rarely seen in offline channels. They can only be compared during festivals such as the Mid-Autumn Festival and the Spring Festival. High visibility. In addition, even though Three Squirrels is developing offline channels, there are still differences in product categories. Unlike brands such as Qiaqia and Wolong, Three Squirrels mainly produces comprehensive gift boxes with shelled nuts and some roasted seeds and nuts.

Therefore, although Nuts has long been regarded as a red ocean market, Qiaqia's continuous efforts have finally opened up a differentiated blank market and operation path.

financial report data shows that from 2018 to 2021, Qiaqia Food ’s nut revenue increased from 502 million yuan to 1.366 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate of 37.6%. Data from the Qianzhan Industry Research Institute shows that in 2019 and before, Wolong Food had the highest market share in the mixed nut industry. In 2019, its market share reached 13%, ranking first in the industry; in 2020, Three Squirrels' market share was 10.2%, ranking first; in 2021, Qiaqia Food's market share was 9.7%, ranking first.

A few years ago, some people in the industry commented on Qiaqia Nuts as a "broken thatched house". The implication is that a competitor can be knocked down with just one powerful kick. But the reality is that at a time when the epidemic situation is fluctuating and the consumption upgrade trend is blocked, Qiaqia Nuts’ survival situation seems to be pretty good. Behind those glamorous stories of "transparent factories" and "global sourcing", Qiaqia's solid behind-the-scenes work as a traditional FMCG company should also be seen.