Recently, more and more research institutions have begun to pessimize the chip industry. News about overcapacity, falling chip prices, and excessive inventory have appeared on the Internet.
In fact, everyone knows that the chip industry is actually a cyclical industry, and there will definitely be peaks and troughs. Judging from the current situation, after experiencing the active expansion of production by wafer factories, it is indeed straight. Downward channel.
This also means that in the future, global chip production capacity will really be excess. It is just a matter of time, maybe in 2023, maybe in 2024. This is the law of the industry.
While industry insiders say that global chip production capacity will be overcapacity, some netizens say that mainland China does not need to be afraid of overcapacity. SMIC and Huahong can just actively expand production. We are still short.
Then the question arises. When the global chip production capacity is overcapacity, mainland China will not have overcapacity. Do you think this is possible?
Why netizens have this idea is because the current domestic chip self-sufficiency rate is seriously insufficient, and the wafer manufacturing capacity is also seriously insufficient. The domestic design, manufacturing, packaging and testing ratio is about 4:3:3, which is compared with a reasonable 3: Compared with 4:3, the manufacturing is still far behind.
Many domestic IC design companies are looking for overseas wafer fabs instead of local wafer foundries. According to Academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering Wu Hanming, "In the future, the gap between China's chip production capacity and demand will widen to at least equivalent to the production capacity of 8 SMIC."
Therefore, everyone believes that domestic wafer production capacity continues to increase , there is no need to consider the problem of excess, and the mainland should vigorously improve it.
But there is a premise here, that is, domestic IC design companies must find domestic wafer fabs for OEM, not foreign wafer fabs. But is this possible?
chip production capacity is global. Once the global chip production capacity is excess, then wafer factories will definitely cut prices to survive, and these wafer factories can be placed by global companies. Domestic IC design companies will put all Order to stay in the country? This is impossible. Of course, you must choose a fab with cheap price, high yield and high level.
Therefore, domestic wafer factories will also have the problem of overproduction, because wafer factories around the world are competing. Unless there is an order, domestic IC design factories are not allowed to find foreign manufacturers to do OEM work. They can only Stay in the country.
So what you say is that global chip production capacity is overcapacity, but there is no need to worry about China. It is a completely false proposition and does not exist.
