The economic data for the first three quarters are released. What do you think of China's economy in the future? How to do?

On August 7, a container freighter was driving on the waterway in Jiaozhou Bay, Qingdao, Shandong. Xinhua News Agency (photo by Yu Fangping)

The National Bureau of Statistics released data on the 18th, China's economy grew by 9.8% year-on-year in the first three quarters, maintaining a recovery trend.

How do you evaluate the overall performance of the Chinese economy in the first three quarters? China's foreign trade fundamentals have continued to improve this year. What are the reasons? Where is the focus of boosting consumption? Sike interviewed China Center for International Economic Exchanges Vice Chairman and former Vice Minister of Commerce Wei Jianguo, China Macroeconomic Research Institute General Situation Office Director Guo Liyan, China Policy Science Research Association Economic Policy Committee Deputy Director Xu Hongcai_ span8span responds to these hot issues.

my country's GDP increased by 9.8% year-on-year in the first three quarters. How do you look at it?

Wei Jianguo : This result is very good. is the result of the country's comprehensive use of macroeconomic control measures to build a "dual cycle" pattern. From a global perspective, it is not easy for China to achieve this result. Among the major economies in the world, China's achievements can be said to be a beautiful landscape. Although some Western countries have overcome the epidemic, they have not been able to achieve such achievements as China.

Xu Hongcai : On the whole, is in line with expectations . The 9.8% economic growth in the first three quarters laid the foundation for the annual economic growth to be higher than 8%, reflecting that 's third quarter economic data continued the steady and positive development trend since the second quarter of last year, and the basic trend remained stable.

Under the global epidemic, China's foreign trade fundamentals have continued to improve this year. What are the reasons?

Wei Jianguo: The total value of my country's import and export of goods trade in the first three quarters was 28.33 trillion yuan, an increase of 22.7% over the same period last year. Among them, exports were 15.55 trillion yuan, an increase of 22.7%; imports were 12.78 trillion yuan, an increase of 22.6%. This dazzling result is mainly due to: First, China is a super-large market , and the attractiveness of this super-large market has become more and more obvious. Second, China has successfully controlled the epidemic and started to resume work and production very early. Compared with other countries, China has the most complete production chain and supply chain in the world . Third, now has a lot of orders from the Southeast Asian market, and they are gradually returning to China . This is mainly because the complete production chain is at play.

With the overall improvement of global epidemic prevention and control, what changes will the export growth rate have in the future?

Wei Jianguo : Exports are the fastest-running carriage among the "three carriages" to drive the economy, and its role has made up for the lack of investment and consumption to a certain extent.

Many people think that the biggest bright spot in the first half of the year is China's import and export trade. It may not be such a high level of development in the second half of the year. I don't quite agree with this view, I think foreign trade will continue to grow against the trend.

On August 20, workers from a cable export company in Fengnan District, Tangshan City, Hebei Province were recording product information. Photo by Xinhua News Agency reporter Mou Yu

First of all, as the epidemic situation changes, textiles, home appliances, and sporting goods The demand for consumer goods will not decrease, but there will be more and more demand for Chinese goods, because China is the first to control the epidemic.The recovery of the industrial chain supply chain is relatively complete. The industrial chain supply chain of some other countries has not fully recovered. This time period is very important to us, so next year is still good for foreign trade;

Second, the international commodity price increase is a push As an important factor in the high import value of my country, the price increase of bulk commodities is temporary;

Third, China’s exports of goods are undergoing transformation and upgrading, from labor-intensive to high-tech products, among which private enterprises have played a large role.

Generally speaking, our window period is still one to two years, and we should maintain a high degree of attention. will do a good job in the transformation and upgrading of foreign trade and the structural reform of export commodities during this period, and at the same time increase cross-border e-commerce exports. These are New growth drivers in the future.

Since the COVID-19 pandemic, consumption has been hit, but it has not fully recovered yet. Where is the focus of boosting consumption?

Guo Liyan : In the future, it is expected to support the stable recovery of consumption. I think we can start from three aspects.

The first is traditional consumption . During the epidemic, we have done a good job in ensuring the supply and price stability of people's livelihood products. So far, basic people's livelihood consumption has been the stabilizer of consumption and has been in a relatively vigorous state.

We have now introduced a series of measures to promote and stimulate consumption, such as the upgrading of smart home appliances, the sinking of channels, further radiating third- and fourth-tier regions and rural markets, and continuing to release consumption potential.

On October 15, a domestic purchaser (right) negotiated at the stainless steel tableware booth of the 130th Canton Fair. Xinhua News Agency reporter Liu Dawei photo

In addition, the consumption of new energy vehicles can drive and drive investment. This includes supporting infrastructure such as charging piles and intelligent network technology. This type of traditional consumption still has a lot of room for improvement.

The second is emerging consumer .Although emerging consumption currently does not account for a high proportion of the total retail sales of consumer goods, it is definitely a very obvious growth bright spot. The epidemic has brought a very important change to our production and life. Online consumption has become a generally accepted mode of consumption. With the normalization of epidemic prevention and control, online consumption will become an important aspect of life. For example, the intelligent market is already in Ubiquitous in life, such as online medical care, online fitness, online office, online viewing, etc., have been closely related to production and life, so emerging consumption is a very important aspect of boosting consumption in the future.

Third, although we often say that consumption refers to food and services, we should also care about the infrastructure behind consumption. The "Guiding Opinions on Further Expanding and Upgrading Information Consumption to Continuously Unleash the Potential of Domestic Demand" mentioned that it is necessary to increase efforts to popularize the infrastructure of information consumption, and some major projects related to the period of the "14th Five-Year Plan" are also related to this. Relevant, so related infrastructure construction will be a very important support for boosting consumption in the future.

Looking at these aspects, I think the consumption stamina is still quite sufficient. Looking into the medium and long term, the trend of steady recovery of consumption is more obvious.

Wei Jianguo : It should be noted that compared with developed countries, China's consumption still has a lot of room for improvement. The booming e-commerce economy has played an important role in tapping the consumption potential. For example, the community e-commerce that is exploring can meet the fragmented, diversified and personalized needs of consumers, and it can also promote consumption upgrades in the rural market. .