At a press conference held in March, Guo Shuqing, Chairman of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, said bluntly: The core problem of real estate is that the bubble is relatively large, and the tendency of financial bubbles is relatively strong. It is the largest in the financial system. For the purpose of living, but for investment or speculation, this is very dangerous. The reason is simple. If development loans and housing loans are allowed to flow into the property market, and the property market's fund pool is allowed to expand disorderly, it will inevitably cause fewer and fewer people to take over, and this "drumming and spreading flowers" game will come to the end. , Which eventually led to the loss of the personal assets of rigid demanders and speculators. At the same time, banks increased a large number of bad debts, threatening the entire financial system.
Therefore, "definancialization" has become the focus of this year's property market regulation. This year the property market has ushered in a number of financial-level regulatory policies, such as the "three red lines", which limit the debt ratio of developers and prevent developers from over-selling land to build houses. They can only choose to increase cash flow by concession. For another example, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission and the Central Bank have set up two caps on the "proportion of real estate loans" and "personal housing loans" for various banks, tightening the injection port of funds flowing into the property market, and imposing severe penalties on banks that illegally lend.
At present, the definancialization of the property market has made important progress. Related reports show that after developers’ financing tightened, the popularity of land auctions this year has significantly decreased, and the prices of developers’ new properties have continued to fall. On the other hand, a spokesperson for the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission recently stated that the special investigation of illegal inflows of business loans into real estate has been basically completed, and a ledger has been established for traffic jams discovered in violation of regulations and gradually rectified to "clearing the number of sales." On September 7, the spokesperson of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission also stated in answering a reporter’s question that real estate financing is showing "five continuous declines":
1. The growth rate of real estate loans hit an 8-year low; 2. The concentration of real estate loans was 10 consecutive years. Monthly decline; 3. The scale of real estate trusts has continued to decline since June 2019; 4. The scale of wealth management products invested in real estate non-standard assets has continued to decline in the past year; 5. The scale of banks investing in the real estate sector through special purpose vehicles has continued for 18 consecutive months decline.
With the further advancement of the financialization of the property market, two new problems in the current property market have also been exposed. One is the continuous increase in new housing inventory. At the end of July 2021, the national real estate general inventory reached 3.84.41 million square meters, an increase of 0.1% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 5%. Calculated on the basis of 100 square meters per suite, it means that the number of existing and off-plan houses that have not been sold has reached 38 million. The second is the phenomenon of high vacancy rate. In 2017, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics estimated that the domestic vacancy rate was 21.6%, and the number of vacant houses was 65 million. Based on the real estate sales area in the past 3 years, the number of vacant houses has exceeded 70 million sets. Under such a trend, some people think that if you buy a house in 2021, you will lose a lot of money after 5 years? Regarding this question, Wang Jianlin and Ma Guangyuan gave the same view:
01 _spanspan strong Beijing Youth reported on 01 01 _spanspan_strong_span_span. When referring to his views on the future real estate market, Wang Jianlin said: No country has a real estate industry that can thrive for more than 50 years. Wanda's shift to the cultural industry is precisely for the long-term development in the future. According to calculations since 1978, my country’s real estate has been developed for more than 40 years now, and it seems that it is indeed not as good as in the past. It is changing from the "Golden Age" to the "Silver Age". Vanke President Yu Liang The meeting also stated: the real estate industry is returning to the ordinary industry. In an interview in 2013, Wang Jianlin also gave his own views when answering the question "how to look at the future housing price trend" raised by the audience. Wang Jianlin believes that will see housing prices in first- and second-tier cities continue to rise in the next 10 years. The basis for this conclusion is the development of China's urbanization. This sentence is also easy to understand. It is analogous to 20 years ago, in the early stages of urbanization, when a large number of rural people flowed into cities, and the number of houses was in short supply, which led to an overall increase in housing prices. Nowadays, the number of housing has long been surplus. According to the data released by the central bank, 96% of urban households already have real estate. Combined with the above-mentioned surge in inventory of new houses and the vacancy rate of second-hand housing, the number of housing has long been surplus. Therefore, determining the future housing price trend mainly depends on the flow of population. For first- and second-tier cities, a large number of graduates and migrant workers flow in every year, increasing housing demand and supporting rising housing prices. But for some remote cities where the population continues to flow in, they need to face the problem of declining housing demand and labor loss, and housing prices are less resilient. Therefore, its housing prices are easily affected and fluctuate.
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On this issue, Internet celebrity economist Ma Guangyuan has the same view. You know, Ma Guangyuan has always been a supporter of house price increases in the past, and he has always believed that house prices will rise sharply in the future. But this year also changed his views on the property market, and publicly stated that "housing to live without speculation" will become a permanent control policy, the "golden age" of real estate has passed, and houses are no longer suitable for investment. In addition, Ma Guangyuan also believes that will only have "three 20%" left in the future property market, namely: 20% of cities, 20% of real estate companies, and 20% of real estate.
These three "20%" are also well understood. With the continuous differentiation of the property market in the future, the population will gradually flow to first- and second-tier cities and coastal hotspots.The number of these cities is about 20%. As real estate gradually returns to the ordinary industry, many real estate companies will also be forced to face the problem of transformation. In the future, the number of real estate companies will also decrease. Finally, as people's living standards continue to improve, Demand for housing will also increase, and mid-to-high-end housing may become the mainstream.
In other words, Wang Jianlin and Ma Guangyuan have the same views on the future property market, and both believe that real estate will fall into the altar in the future and return to the ordinary industry. Under such a general trend, for rigid needs, buying a house also needs to be more cautious. If it is a real estate in a remote location and a city that is constantly losing population, it is not recommended to buy it, because it does not have the value preservation and there is the possibility of further decline. If economic conditions allow, try to choose the core area of the hot city, although the future housing price will not It will rise sharply, but at least it can maintain its value.
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