Some friends must ask me to talk about Kaile Technology, a listed company, because the company’s stock fell from 15.64 yuan to yesterday’s closing price of 7.76 yuan in one year, which is more than half of the price, of course. Some friends may have bought at a higher price in 2018, and the loss may be even greater. But the stock market is really risky, so what can be done? I only analyze the relevant situation from the public data, hoping to help these friends in their judgment!
Kaile Technology’s problem is mainly revenue. Investors will vote with their feet. This is true. Corresponding to more than half of the stock price drop, its revenue in 2020 will also be the same performance. Nearly half.
We can see from just 6 years of data that Kaile Technology ’s revenue has grown rapidly from 2015 to 2017 and almost doubled every year; it stopped in 2018. This kind of crazy model, a slight correction in 2019, and the impact of the epidemic in 2020, it plummeted back to 2016 levels.
So which products or industries are falling?
All the major industries involved, Kaile Technology’s revenue is falling, and the most outrageous fall is real estate, yes, don’t look at the company called quantum communication. In fact, there is still real estate business. What is even more incredible is that the purpose of other technology companies in real estate is to use the high profits of real estate operations to decorate listed companies, but is doing real estate at a loss.
The only thing that makes people feel gratifying is that the gross profit margins of its main products "private network communications" and "network information materials" are obviously rising, which means that Kaile Technology experienced intensified industry competition in 2019.Especially in the difficult period of overcapacity of the second largest product "network information materials", the gross profit margin of 0.6% is unbearable by any company. In fact, anyone who has a little knowledge of the industry knows that these are products such as optical fiber cables, optical fibers and communication cables, especially optical fiber products. The gross profit margin is -25.5% in 2019 and -3.96% in 2020.
Let me list these situations for your reference. The impact of overcapacity is still quite large. Looking at those "high-tech" products with negative gross profit margins, in fact, our domestic masters rely on imports to the end. Global overcapacity took only 20 to 30 years.
Regardless of whether it is an intentional or unintentional business behavior, Kaile Technology 's largest product "dedicated communications" has a 40% decline in sales, and its revenue share has increased. This pair It is helpful to avoid an avalanche decline in overall operating performance. Otherwise, in the case of a sharp decline in performance, the 2020 annual report will be much ugly.
In the adverse market in 2020, 凯乐科技 Although the return on net assets has fallen by more than half, the gross profit margin has miraculously recovered to the highest level in the past six years, and in 2021. The quarter continues to pick up. It should be that some small and medium-sized competitors are being eliminated, and some of them involve the industry, and the prosperity is improving. But this is not a good spring, because around 2012, the gross profit margin of was close to 30%.
Let’s take a brief look at the bubble chart again:
From the perspective of the revenue scale represented by the size of the bubble, Kaile Technology has been advancing towards an output value of tens of billions since 2016. After four years of hard work, 2020 Back in 2016 back to the scale of 2016.
From the perspective of the annual revenue growth represented by the upper and lower positions of the bubble, 凯乐科技 fluctuates sharply. The highest increase in 2016 was 160.7%, and the decline in 2020 was 46.4%. This fluctuation may be one of the characteristics of the technology industry, but it is also related to the market It has something to do with the industry's judgment or low degree of assurance.
From the point of view of the net profit scale represented by the left and right positions of the bubble, Kaile Technology has never lost money. Almost before 2016, the net profit was below 100 million yuan, and between 2017-2019 and 500 million-1 billion yuan, 2020 Returned to 450 million yuan in the year.
Since it is a technology company, of course it depends on R&D. I also like to compare it with its marketing to see if some companies focus on marketing, and R&D is just an "effect" after its promotion.
Kaile Technology 's R&D expenditure is still not low, although the absolute number of spent in 2020 is declining, but the revenue ratio has increased, and we still see As a result, its sales expenses are very low. Although this is a characteristic of companies dominated by industry customers, it is really rare for companies with revenues and sales expenses to account for less than 1%. Especially when Kaile Technology ’s main customers are mostly operators, this is even more difficult.
Today we no longer analyze the situation of its assets and liabilities, but we have also noticed that its prepayments may have certain risks, because the prepayments reached 6.141 billion yuan, almost reaching about half of the total assets. Under normal circumstances, we still rarely see the need to prepay such a large amount of money to go out. In particular, in 2020, revenue will drop by nearly half, and accounts receivable and other occupancy will almost decrease in proportion, but prepayments are still rising, which makes people somewhat worried.
This is the analysis today, I hope it will be helpful to that anxious friend. As for how to make a decision, it is up to you to make your own decision!
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