Standard Chartered Bank (Standard Chartered) Global Research Director Eric Robertsen released a financial market economic report on December 15.
In this report, he predicted that the renminbi will rise to 6 against the US dollar in 2021, and the resignation of US President-elect Biden , leading to a sharp correction in US stocks and a sharp drop in the US dollar.
According to a Chinese media Sina Finance report on December 15, in the 2019 annual report, the two "non-zero probability" events listed by Robertson became a reality in 2020 , Including Fed interest rate cut and gold price touched 2,000 US dollars per ounce.
He also predicted that S&P 500 index will rise by 20% in 2020, which is very close to the actual increase of the index in 2020.
The eight miracle events listed by Robertson in 2021 are as follows:
1. The United States wins a seat in the US Senate and controls the Asian state of the Span1span 2span. Tax increase and regulatory reform legislative agenda. This will cause technology stocks to plummet, and the US treasury bond yield will rise sharply due to supply concerns.
2. The USD/CNY exchange rate dropped to 6.00.
3. Monetary and fiscal stimulus promoted the strongest recovery of the global economy in a century.Investors and traders who are eager to profit from physical assets will move more and more funds to markets such as copper, thereby driving the price of copper to soar by 50%.
4. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries ( OPEC ) split. In order to make up for financial funds, oil exporting countries gave up supply quotas, and OPEC's cooperation also collapsed. The effect is that oil prices will fall back to US$20 per barrel.
5. Hopes of European fiscal stimulus are shattered. The European Central Bank’s ability to support economic recovery is increasingly being questioned because its policy interest rate is zero and its balance sheet to gross domestic product (GDP) ratio is close to 100%. The impact is that the euro-dollar exchange rate will fall to 1.06 by mid-2021.
6. The US Treasury Department abandons its strong dollar policy. When Congress fails to cooperate on a fiscal plan, the next Treasury Secretary Yellen (Janet L. Yellen) will ease the financial situation by depressing the dollar exchange rate, which may cause the dollar to plummet by 15%.
7. Emerging market debt defaults and sovereignty downgrades. Corporate debt defaults started slowly and then spread to government-backed entities, leading to downgrades. This will cause the emerging market stock market to fall by 30% in the second quarter of 2021, and the annual performance will be the worst since 2013.
8. US President Biden resigned. Biden was disappointed in failing to bridge the gap between Republicans and Democrats, and was forced to resign under the pressure of increasing protests and social unrest. His position was held by Vice President Kamala Harris ( Kamala Harris) succeeded. This will lead to a sharp correction of US stocks , a widening of credit spreads, and an accelerated depreciation of the dollar.
Note that the above is only a prediction
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