In 2018, it is only about 10 years since the 100th anniversary of the Great Depression of the last century (1929). At this moment, global finance, industry, investment and market prospects are generally shrouded in anxiety, uncertainty and even some In the ominous atmosphere, especially since President Trump took office, the unprecedented and unimaginable impact on the global economic status and order caused by President Trump makes it easier to think of whether mankind will face a hundred years and one more time. Are you experiencing a major economic crisis?
seems a bit fateful to say so, but in the world, many destinies seem to be nonsense on the surface, but there are still many internal lines and logic to follow. Although some logics have been proven to be valid and valid, they have been questioned or denied because of the emergence of certain new factors. Nevertheless, this does not mean that we can ignore or ignore the reference or enlightening significance of other logics.
Malthus’s population theory is an economic logic that was once effective but invalidated because of the emergence of new factors. Malthus said that population growth helps to promote production. Conversely, the increase in production also contributes to population growth. The two complement each other. However, because food production (at that time was an agricultural society, production was mainly food) usually increased by arithmetic progression, population It will increase exponentially, so if it develops to a certain level, per capita food will drop, and society will enter a stage of poverty, which will restrain population growth-either by peaceful means or by means of war. The economic logic of Malthus's population theory was reasonable, but it was ultimately shaken or even denied because of the fact that science and technology increased agricultural productivity.
Regardless of the economic logic of Malthusian population theory, what I want to talk about here is to include (1) capitalism; (2) industrial economy; and (3) three economic logics under the modern economy under the trinity of financial operations. These logics All are basically effective, and have influenced and dominated the global economic operation to a considerable extent.
(one) distribution logic. The operation of capitalism is conducive to the release of efficiency and productivity, and is not conducive to the rationality and fairness of distribution. This has long been the economic common sense of contemporary people, and it is also the warning that Marx put forward when he wrote "Das Kapital" in the early years. However, such common sense and theories were not proved infallible by Piketty, a young French economist who was only 40 years old at the time, with massive data ("Capital in the 21st Century") until 2014. Distribution logic refers to the market economy’s original intention of pursuing efficiency, and finally promotes production and increases GDP, but it leads to the expansion of the gap between the rich and the poor and the deterioration of distribution, which further triggers social conflicts, ranging from social and political friction and internal friction. At the same time, it evolves into conflicts and wars, so economic growth comes to an end and a single economic cycle is completed-the so-called cycle is the entire process of the economy from "recovery → prosperity → recession → depression".
(2) Bubble logic. Any market economy must have a bubble. This is in a market economy because: (1) confidence and (2) credit are the result of the mutual use of the two, that is, people have confidence in the economic prospects, and increased confidence leads to credit expansion. The latter increases output, so we look back to further strengthen confidence. This cycle continues, and naturally to a certain extent, the total supply is far greater than the total demand, that is, a bubble is formed. But all bubbles are known to be a bubble only when the bubble bursts; therefore, the longer the process of bubble development and formation, the greater the damage it will cause once it bursts, and the adjustment costs needed to restore normal Bigger.
(3) Globalization logic. Globalization refers to the expansion of the market economy from one country to the entire planet. Therefore, it is similar to the distribution logic. Globalization will cause the deterioration of the distribution of the entire global society. However, the problems caused by globalization are not only the deterioration of distribution, but also more complicated. They also include global warming, religious and ethnic conflicts, conflicts of civilizations, And refugee issues and so on. Usually, a cycle begins with the end of destruction and disintegration. People learn their lessons and strive to combat isolationism, unilateralism and protectionism, and strive to promote multilateralism and integration. Global integration will inevitably bring certain benefits in the process, but over time, problems appear, more and more, more and more serious, so "anti-globalization" emerges, the momentum is gradually strengthened, and then develops towards major destruction and destruction. These three cycles of
can exist at the same time, but the cycle cycles are not the same. There are long and short cycles. Therefore, if they are not blasted together, although the damage is severe, they can still deal with the aftermath. Take the most common financial bubble as an example. The financial crisis is an example of the problem that can be controlled; the 2008 financial tsunami of the century was severe.It’s more serious. Although repeated QE (quantity wide) has suppressed the outbreak of a bigger crisis, it has left behind the huge energy of a bigger crisis in the future. To be conservative, this new crisis is not a question of whether it will explode but what The problem of explosion. At the same time, the distribution logic and globalization logic with a longer cycle cycle, the energy accumulation has been considerable for a long time, and it is gradually approaching the tipping point of detonation. Whether the three logical cycles will reach the critical point of detonation in the foreseeable future, one after another or in a concentrated manner, seems to be unable to completely rule out such a possibility. Therefore, whether 2029 is really the exact time point of the 100-year reincarnation may not be important. What is important is the three logical trends and trends that make the curse of the 100-year reincarnation not purely illusory.
news comes from Shi Ping Da Finance
