However, in the past two years, not only have there been few news that people have made alternative behaviors to buy the latest iPhone, but it is also difficult to see the crowded streets due to the release of the new model again.
is actually more than iPhone, Huawei , vivo, oppo and other major mobile phone brands that can be named have begun to show a significant "downhill".
Is the era of overperformance of mobile phones really coming? Will you also follow the old path of PC?
Decent PC Old Road
PC full name is "Personal Computer", which means personal computer or personal computer. Perhaps in the late 1970s, personal computers were still a "rare object"; but in our current life, this is not an unfamiliar word, laptops, , tablets, handheld computers... all kinds of computers are closely related to our lives. It is very common for each company to configure computers or even own one.
The vast PC market has attracted many high-tech companies to go into business. The market competition of " monks and less porridge " has made PC products updates faster and faster, and their performance is getting better and better.
The global people's enthusiasm for PC reached its highest peak in 2011 - more than 400 million 3html units. Then, similar to the development process of market demand for many commodities, it began to enter the second half of the development of " inverted U-shaped " for commodity sales - slowly decreasing year by year.
PC performance is increasing, people's demand is increasingly sluggish, and the PC market has entered a dilemma of " over-performance ". Simply put, our needs do not match the hardware functions of the computer, and they are in a state of " high-end and low-end and use ".
For most of us, we only need to master relatively simple functions such as Excel, Word, etc. in our daily work; in our daily life, PC is only one of the tools used to watch TV series and play games. High-performance PCs can only be used "low-use" in our hands. It is no exaggeration to say that most of the performance of a PC from being purchased to being eliminated is useless to most people.
So the hot PC has embarked on a path of overperformance, and in the face of competition in the same industry and the development of other industries such as mobile phones and tablets, the path of overperformance of PC will only go further and further.
smartphones come into the footsteps?
It is undeniable that since smartphones appeared in people's sight, they have quickly divided most of the PC market. When convenience becomes a new goal, it can also meet our daily needs. Compared with its PC, which is smaller and lighter in smartphones, has become popular as fast as ever since its debut.
Before the advent of smartphones, the popularity of computers could be considered very rapid, but the growth cycle lasted only twenty or thirty years. But I never thought that the growth cycle of smartphones has only been for more than ten years and has begun to get into trouble.
Since the "big brother" in the 1990s, simulator manufacturers have created many classic works over the past decade, and are still talked about by people today: Nokia , Motorola ... It was not until 2007 that Jobs released the iPhone that it was the real era of smartphones.
The vast smartphone market is developing rapidly, the diversification of mobile phone brands and personalized models have led to the global sales of smartphones growing rapidly between 2007 and 2015, and reached the peak of sales in in 2018. At this point, the smartphone market cannot escape the fate of the second half of the "reverse U-shaped". Since 2020, the sales of smartphones have begun to decline, and the sales volume in the first and second quarters of this year are even worse than those in 2020.
Compared with the gradual refinement of the PC market, office and games have begun to target the trend of the target group, and smartphones are still the way to " and go all over the world ". Various needs such as gaming, social networking, office and other needs can be achieved through one mobile phone.Moreover, it is not the mobile phone performance that can restrict people's use and stimulate their enthusiasm for changing phones, but the storage space or the brand sentiment . As a major factor affecting people's replacement of new phones, the influence in the current smart phone market has gradually weakened. Large storage space has become a "must-have" for smartphones. The larger the storage space, the more troublesome people are when replacing new phones. The more resources that need to import new phones, the troublesome operation has also "dissuaded" many owners' enthusiasm for replacing phones.
Many smart phone brands have accumulated a group of loyal buyers in their years of operation. They are always the first to pay attention to the release of new phones of their favorite brands, contributing a lot of sales. However, most sentimental buyers, is only interested in a certain type of model of a certain brand, or even a certain model of , and it is difficult for them to keep up with the rapid updates and replacement of brands.
Currently, there is rarely a phenomenon of " cannot carry " in the use of smartphones. The so-called "unable to carry" of mobile phones means that the mobile phone cannot maintain stable operation under extreme image quality. This problem has always been a pain point for gamers, but the current smart phone chips are mostly Snapdragon 845 and Kirin 970, etc., which provide guarantees for the smart phone game experience. Not only that, the mobile game R&D team has also made some adjustments. Large games such as Honor of Kings and Genshin Impact can automatically reduce the game frame rate according to the mobile phone performance to ensure the normal operation of the game. Therefore, the enthusiasm of game users to change phones has also weakened.
has only been more than ten years since 2007. Are smartphones going to take the old path of overperformance?
Innovation drives demand
Discussion on whether mobile phone performance is oversupply was not proposed this year, and debates about it emerged a few years ago. Whether it is to insist on the view that " is already over " or to believe that " is still very far from over ", the reasons are very sufficient.
During the outbreak of the epidemic, the sluggish economic environment has pushed the topic of whether mobile phone performance is oversupply. Whether it is the slower and slower mobile phone sales or the larger number of brands and manufacturers, it seems that mobile phones have really embarked on the old path of PC.
In fact, we will notice that although the problem of overperformance of PC has been around for many years, there is still a certain amount of demand in the current market. We cannot deny the real existence of the performance problems of smartphones, but the era of overperformance of mobile phones has not arrived.
At the Apple press conference on September 4 this year and the Huawei press conference on September 6, both launched this year's new products. Whether it is the introduction to the new configuration of iPhone 14, or the industry's first Huawei Mate50 series that supports Beidou satellite messages, they all convey an important message to us- mobile phone brands still pay attention to the research and development of mobile phone performance and configuration and Chuangxing .
Jobs once said: "Consumers do not know what they need. What we want to innovate to meet is the needs that consumers need but cannot describe and express."
Qi Anxin Group Chairman Qi Xiangdong also said at the 2020 mid-Economic Frontier Technology and Innovation Forum: "The core of the internal circulation is still domestic demand. Historical experience shows that technological innovation can stimulate larger-scale demand." The main problem shown by the overperformance of mobile phones is that the sales volume of mobile phones is slow to increase , and people's enthusiasm for changing phones has plummeted. From an economic perspective, this is the lack of domestic demand in the market and the vitality of economic innovation is not enough for .
In my country's mobile phone sales market, due to the fierce market competition year by year, the product updates and replacement speed is relatively fast, and it inevitably entered the " buyer's market ". In the market situation of oversupply, does not mean that consumers' needs are 100%.
Although people's demand for smartphone replacement is relatively weak, we cannot ignore the problems that still exist in mobile phone use, such as mobile phone heating , not having long service life .There is still huge consumer demand in my country's consumer market, but it is not possible to replace the appearance of the mobile phone and increase the number of cameras.
So whether in the PC industry or the smartphone market, when there is a shortage of market demand in the current situation, should be used to target the real needs of consumers and continuously innovate to achieve an increase in market sales. Although the increasingly severe smartphone sales situation in
is inseparable from the economic downturn caused by the epidemic in recent years, if not paid attention, the era of overperformance of mobile phones will arrive soon.
References:
1. Apple press conference on September 4
2. Huawei press conference on September 6
3. Kuznets curve
4. Excessive performance mobile phones finally embark on the old path of PC?
