"Negatives are basically cleared." In the Feiling Automotive engineer community, many engineers reported that the department has been short of manpower recently, and a person from a new car manufacturing company even said that only two people in the entire department are working. "Heaven chooses to beat workers," he said mockingly. In this case, it poses a huge challenge to the operation of the enterprise. Not only these two companies, but also many car companies have suffered the shock wave caused by the epidemic in the past month.
BYD , which features a vertical supply chain, has achieved great development despite the shortage of parts in the past two years, and its model has also been highly praised. But recently, BYD Executive Vice President Lian Yubo said at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Small and Medium Enterprises Business Forum held in Shenzhen that many workers have been infected with the new coronavirus in the past few days, which has seriously affected production. BYD will produce 2,000-3,000 fewer cars every day.
In early December, after another independent brand car company in the north was liberalized, due to the high infection rate in the local city, 1/4 of the employees had a fever and had to take leave, 1/4 had returned to work after the fever subsided, 1/4 had mild symptoms and continued to work, and 1/4 were not infected yet. Looking at car companies as a whole, the local operating rate is 60%. Another piece of data from a research company circulated online shows that approximately 50% of the company’s workers are absent from work due to illness. It is currently unclear how the company is recovering.
As various companies are currently under the shock wave of the epidemic, the entire industry chain is also facing greater pressure. "Confidence in both the supply chain and consumer demand will definitely go through a recovery process. So I think the pressure on both ends of supply and demand will be greater in the first half of next year, but the pressure on demand will definitely be greater." Li Bin, founder of NIO, recently judged in a recent communication with Spiegel Pro that the new energy market in 2023 will be "very big" in the first half of the year.
So, how big is the current impact on the automobile industry? Is the industry chain still running smoothly? How do practitioners in the automobile industry judge what will happen in 2023? Feiling Automobile, a community of automotive engineers, recently conducted an online survey. Among more than 1,000 valid samples, it gave a panoramic view of the impact the automotive industry has suffered in the early stages of the epidemic, and it also partially revealed the changes in the mentality of employees.
The survey data comes from vehicle companies (accounting for 43%), parts companies (accounting for 48%) and the automobile sales and service industry (accounting for 8%). It shows that the current proportion of people in the automobile industry who have recovered from ejaculation is 32%, while the proportion of people who are in the infectious period is 33%, so the proportion of people who have already been posited is 65%. The current proportion of people who are not infected is 35%. These people are currently the main force in corporate operations as "chosen workers". "I can't find anyone to help me. Many people are infected or are still recovering." An internal employee of a joint venture car company said.
In many companies, due to a short-term surge in infection rates, employee attendance rates are very low. Feiling's survey data shows that currently only 3% of companies have an on-boarding rate of 100%, while 36% of companies have an on-boarding rate between 50% and 90%. The largest proportion of companies with an on-boarding rate below 50% reaches 48%. In addition, 11% of people said that the on-duty rate of their units was already below 10%, making it very difficult to operate. This has also brought about fluctuations in business operations. Some companies have been severely impacted, but individual companies have achieved better development amid the parts crisis.
survey data shows that only 8% of employees said that the production and operation of their units have not been affected. 43% of the respondents believed that the company had been hit, but the decline in operations caused by the impact was less than 20%, while 38% of the respondents said that the company was severely damaged, with a decline of more than 30%. In addition, about 8% of those surveyed said that the company has been severely damaged and is now almost paralyzed. As the company's operations have been affected, this has also brought about fluctuations in employees' income. In this survey, many practitioners said that their incomes are also fluctuating.
Among them, the proportion of damage within 15% is 31, while the damage with greater impact is within 30% is about 18%. There is no impact. Currently, normal accounts for the highest proportion, 46%. Surprisingly, about 3% of the respondents said that their income this year was not only not affected, but even increased. This makes many people envious and jealous, and some speculate about the companies to which these practitioners belong. "Is it from the chip or battery?" someone speculated.
This year, the automobile industry has been on the verge of supply chain rupture many times due to the "urban silence" and closed management caused by the epidemic. After this relaxation, the short-term impact will be even greater. When elaborating on the current supply chain situation, some practitioners said that the current supply chain is basically not in a normal state. 9% of the people surveyed believe that the supply chain has been severely impacted or is in a state of paralysis, while 90% believe that it has been severely impacted but said it is still operating. In addition, 1% of the respondents said that their units were not affected and were operating in an orderly manner.
Under this impact, many car companies have expressed concerns about next year's market. "We hope that we can gradually recover in May of the second quarter. This is our preliminary judgment." Li Bin said.
In the survey, 15% of people believed that the current epidemic seems to come in waves and require long-term preparations, while Li Bin also believed that there would be an improvement in the second half of next year, accounting for 39%. In addition, 44% of those surveyed believe that the current macroeconomic situation is still recovering and needs to be judged by changes in the overall environment, especially the recovery of consumer income and consumer confidence. "The pressure on both supply and demand will be greater in the first half of next year, but the pressure on demand will definitely be greater," Li Bin said.
"Single product parts can be allocated to each other. Each product has a backup supplier. As long as the goods are prepared and restocked in advance, the supply can be adjusted. A cold is not paralysis. The perpetrator has the ability to stand up and go to work.
. Why don't you drink the northwest wind when you don't go to work? The biggest factor affecting sales is the economic downturn. People are making less money, so who will be obsessed with buying cars." An engineer from Feiling Automobile said.
The epidemic that has lasted for three years has had a great impact on the automobile industry. At the same time, the entire industry is in a critical period of transformation. The combination of these two problems has caused earth-shaking changes in the entire automobile ecology and pattern. From the consumer side, consumers' evaluation of the value and preference for automobile products are significantly different from before. Under this complicated situation, coupled with the recent shock wave, many practitioners have changed their judgment on the industry.
Looking at companies internally, 13% of people in this survey believe that companies have suffered multiple impacts this year, with poor transformation and continued losses, and believe that companies have little chance of survival in the future. And 40% of people believe that their company has encountered huge challenges and is suffering losses, but they have been working hard to find a direction and believe that the transformation can be completed through hard work. 30% of people said that this year is basically the same as last year. Although the operation is neither salty nor weak, it is considered good under the current circumstances. Another 15% said that the company was "prosperous" this year.
And this also creates different polarized views on 2023. 8%-10% of people have a negative attitude towards next year, believing that the company will not survive and the industry prospects are pessimistic. The proportion of people with positive and neutral attitudes were 32% and 55% respectively. People with a positive attitude believe that after experiencing short-term shocks, the automobile industry will enter a better future in 2023. So, what is your judgment on China’s automobile industry in 2023? Feel free to leave a message.
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