Original author: Wang Meng (Second-hand car chubby)
Recent national second-hand car transaction volume data shows that the Golden Nine and Silver Ten years are the worst in history, and November-December, which is supposed to be the peak season, still continues a downward trend, with both volume and price falling!
From January to November 2022, the national second-hand car transaction volume was only 14.6115 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 8.49%, a decrease of 1.355 million units compared with the same period last year, and the cumulative transaction value was only 975.573 billion yuan.
The average transaction price of second-hand cars continues to decline. The national average transaction price of second-hand cars in November was 60,200 yuan. continued to drop by 2,400 yuan compared with in October.
The past few months should be the darkest three months in the history of China's second-hand car industry. At least so far, actual second-hand car operators have also encountered various "adding insult to injury" troubles.
1. Affected by the epidemic, insufficient circulation and inventory pressure.
Relatively speaking, the pressure faced by second-hand car operators may be lighter than that of 4S stores. However, for operators mainly "mom-and-pop shops", the inventory funds and risks this year are also unprecedented.
The national average price of second-hand cars is over 60,000, and more than 65% of operators have more than 50% of their daily inventory of vehicles that have been in stock for more than 60 days.
According to the average retail price of second-hand cars at about 120,000 yuan, the normal turnover period is about 30 days. It currently exceeds 50 days. Considering the actual cost, it should be an absolute loss.
Due to the epidemic, turnover has declined both locally and in other provinces. Although it has improved slightly recently, as the New Year is approaching, no one is "stocking up" anymore, so there is basically no transaction between B2B. In the past, local and foreign transactions accounted for 50%, but now no one from other places comes, and no one buys locally!
Beijing car dealer Lao Liu said that there are now more than 50 units in retail inventory, and half of them are more than 50 days old. Many of them were collected during the National Day. Now they basically lose money and can be sold. The key is to be able to sell them.
He said that a mini model currently priced at around 200,000 yuan on Autohome would not be sold if it was lower than 190,000 yuan. Now, if it can be sold for 180,000 yuan, it will be sold as long as it can be sold at a loss.
I said, then why don’t you lower the price?
Lao Liu said helplessly that no one had lowered the bid price, and the actual transaction price was all at a loss. It was better to lose less, and it was still a bit of a "lucky" mentality. Every time the inventory of
increases by one month, the price of second-hand cars will start to lose 1%. Every time the price of new cars decreases by 1%, inventory of cars, the closer the year is, basically the same loss will occur!
2, new car price cuts, vicious competition, and the Internet is watered down.
Many second-hand car dealers have suffered huge losses this year. According to incomplete statistics, about 96% of second-hand car companies in the industry have suffered losses this year, and almost all of them are making money at a loss.
First of all, many second-hand car operators, especially traditional operators, are grabbing quasi-new second-hand cars that are "near year, good condition, and low mileage", including many new car 4S stores. This has resulted in the "high price" of these cars being really high, but they cannot "sell the car at a high price".
After all, it is not uncommon for new cars to have frequent and substantial price cuts. This year, with the exception of BYD , other brand models, from fuel vehicles to new energy vehicles, have almost continued to decline amid price fluctuations. Especially since October, various models such as Tesla , Mercedes-Benz EQ, BMW , and Audi have appeared.
In first-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen where there are many 4S stores, the "price war" between dealers has become fierce, so second-hand cars will be in trouble!
car dealer Boss Sun said that the "Internet celebrity cars" such as Tesla, Lynk & Co , and tank that were purchased in October originally seemed to be no problem, but now we see that there are many problems. When we invested 200,000 yuan, the planned profit was 8,000 yuan. Because the price was too low, no one would sell it. As a result, now we have invested 200,000 yuan and started with a loss of 20,000 yuan.
There is still a problem with the "gambling nature" of traditional second-hand car owners.
At the same time, Lao Sun also said that many 4S stores now sell second-hand cars purely to "pay orders to get subsidies from manufacturers and complete various tasks." The prices of second-hand cars are all messed up. It doesn't matter if you are working anyway, but if you are your own boss, you are really losing money.
In addition, the clues on the Internet are becoming more and more abundant. In the past, Autohome, Yiche, 58, and Automobile Didu were still a little bit knowledgeable. Now these companies are a bit too watery. The Douyin Kuaishou live broadcast that I made can only be maintained. Basically, the effect is over. You have to do it even if you don’t do it. It may not be useful if you know how to do it.
It's better than sitting around and waiting for death, or else you'll really be waiting for death.
Lao Sun said that many 4S stores are now clearing out second-hand cars at the end of the year, and many cars are sold at a loss of 5-10%, so everyone has to follow the price reduction and ship goods, otherwise it will be hard to say after the Spring Festival.
3. Policy overlay, unknown elements, must be adjusted.
involves policies affecting second-hand cars. There will be many after January 1, 2023, which will also affect overall prices and industry changes.
Will the policy of halving the purchase fee of fuel vehicles continue?
National subsidies for new energy vehicles have expired, and purchase fee reductions and exemptions continue! How will the
trade-in local subsidy and manufacturer subsidy policies change?
Li Ge, a second-hand car dealer in Beijing, said that according to this model, one person can only trade 2 cars in a year, and the third car will not be transferred. This means that the original "personal transactions" of second-hand car dealers will gradually disappear. It is imperative to follow public accounts, conduct operations, and pay used car value-added tax , corporate income tax, personal income tax and other standardized management!
If we understand according to the current policy, in some cities, more than 2 vehicles owned by bosses and individuals must be transferred to the current second-hand car operating company to realize the inventory of second-hand cars. Recently, there are still many problems, whether it is local policy or actual practice, and the cost of realizing this operation is not low.
Several policies are uncertain, coupled with adjustments to brokerage operations, if the ownership is not transferred and adjusted before the end of the month, there will be too much uncertainty in the actual operation after New Year's Day, and the cost of a bicycle will increase by 2-4%. It is better to cut the price and sell the goods now!
4. Newcomers are blind, old people are shrinking, and speculation is increasing!
Although it is said that the second-hand car industry is not easy to do this year, under the influence of the three-year epidemic, apart from the nucleic acid industry, which other industry is easy to do? Relatively speaking, many people think that the entry barrier to second-hand cars is low, and the yield rate of and are said to be pretty good, so new people are still coming in.
In the past few years, there were "Infernal Affairs" who resigned from e-commerce, "helpless people" who came out of 4S stores, and some entrepreneurs whose "boys became bosses". In the past two years, more people from new media, repair shops, finance and insurance and other industries have come in to continue to be "guinea pigs."
In fact, judging from the actual data, among the newcomers who have come in in recent years, few have made money, while many have lost money.
Traditional second-hand car dealers are currently adhering to the strategy of "strategic contraction", especially those in the second-hand car market. Basically, it is better to "empty city strategy" than to "blindly fill the warehouse with and ".
When the overall economic outlook is not optimistic and industry competition is fierce, there are always people "speculating", and this year there is a possibility of intensification. The "low price" problem caused by "fake car sources" on the
network has shifted from formal websites such as Autohome to the unregulated network of "Xuyu" selling accident cars, problem cars, mortgaged cars, , etc., which have had a negative impact on the industry.
At the same time, the "violence" brought about by the epidemic has led to a significant increase in transaction disputes. According to incomplete statistics, the number of used car legal proceedings in 2023 has nearly doubled compared to the same period last year, and the actual litigation rate may rise from 1 in 10,000 to 3 in 10,000. After the new policy of
, many second-hand car operators may really become "brokerage intermediaries" and abandon the traditional "operating and collecting cars"!
Consumers are "cutting off", and operators are "cutting off their arms to survive"
Judging from the current policy and economic situation, especially consumers' confidence in buying cars that are not strictly needed, and the recent supply of second-hand car products, it is unlikely that there will be a large-scale price increase of new cars in the first quarter of next year, and the possibility of a shortage of new cars.
Therefore, it is unlikely that the price of second-hand cars will "go back up". In other words, the cost of waiting for the price to go back up is higher than the possible return. Spending 10,000 yuan to wait for three months to avoid losing 5,000 yuan, in fact, after three months, I still lost 5,000 yuan.
Therefore, it is recommended that the current second-hand car operating companies reduce expansion, speed up inventory clearance, and reduce prices in one go. It is really the so-called "losing money and taking a big step". Cutting off the wrist of a strong man is at least better than dying from poison later!
For those who want to buy second-hand cars, the time may be good recently. Firstly, the price of new cars is suppressed and various subsidies are promoting it. It is easy to bargain for second-hand cars, but it is also necessary to compare the final "price" of new and old cars.
Secondly, the current supply of second-hand cars in the market exceeds demand in the short term, and businesses are eager to withdraw funds. They can buy suitable second-hand cars by making an appropriate "cut".
Judging from various policy adjustments and data, China's second-hand cars in the future must also have two models of "domestic demand + export", but the traditional "price difference model" is being replaced by the "specialized" division of labor.
It will be more difficult to buy second-hand cars in the future. It should be better for people to buy second-hand cars in the future!
WeChat public account: Used Car Great Wisdom Pan Pan (id: carman228)
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