In the new energy track, compared with the innovative and bold new forces, traditional car companies have always been unpopular.
But now the situation has changed again.
"Not good."
This is the true thoughts of many people about "Wei Xiaoli" after the sales list of electric vehicle brands came out in October.
In addition to facing the overtake of new forces in the second echelon, they are also being overtaken by Aian , Zekr and other "creative second generation" derived from traditional car companies.
sales data shows that in October, Aion was far ahead with 30,063 vehicles, with a total sales of 212,384 vehicles in the first 10 months, achieving the annual target of 200,000 two months ahead of schedule; on the other hand, the rising momentum of Zekr, which has been established less than two years ago, also has a rapid rise. With a model of 001, it achieved monthly delivery of over 10,119 vehicles for the first time, surpassing "Wei Xiaoli".
and "Wei Xiaoli" ranked 5, 6 and 8 respectively, especially Xiaopeng HTML only delivered 5,101 vehicles in October, which was almost halfway compared with the same period last year.
capital market , stock price and market value collectively slid. Whether it is US stock or Hong Kong independence, the decline of "Wei Xiaoli" is more than 50%.
Due to poor performance this year, both public opinion and capital’s trust in new forces is declining rapidly. After leaving the protection of the novice village, the outside world began to re-measure and evaluate "Wei Xiaoli" with a more demanding perspective.
In this atmosphere, the " Creation Second Generation " that has the advantages of new forces and traditional car companies has come from behind, and seems to have become a better choice for capital. In addition to Aian and Zekr who have emerged, there is another brand that has also attracted attention, that is Changan Deep Blue.
01 Positioning the mainstream, sales ceiling is higher
Ancient Greek philosopher Plato once said: "A good start is half the success." This sentence also applies to commercial competition.
The top ten business masters in the world, Ai Rees, proposed the famous positioning theory . The core idea of this theory is: the essence of business lies in precise positioning.
positioning determines the upper limit of development. From this perspective, Deep Blue has greater market potential than "Wei Xiaoli".
First look at a set of data.
Passenger Car Association data shows that as of the third quarter, new energy vehicle html below 250,000, accounting for 5%, 50,000-100,000 23%, 150,000-200,000 19%, 200,000-300,000-16%, 300,000-400,000-6%, and 3% of the market above 400,000.
So the range below 300,000, accounting for more than 63%, is the mainstream basic market in China's auto market, and it is also the new energy segment with the largest proportion and fastest growth.
In October this year, pure electric models of 100,000 to 200,000 yuan accounted for 46%, an increase of 5 percentage points; pure electric models of 200,000 to 300,000 yuan accounted for 19%, and increased by 3 percentage points year-on-year compared with .
But this is not the territory of "Wei Xiaoli".
According to NIO 2022 third quarter financial report, the average selling price is 434,700; Ideal previously had only ONE, with a price of 349,800 yuan, and the newly launched L series price is above 300,000 yuan; Xiaopeng's main sales P7 price range is 239,900-429,900 yuan, and the latest G9 starts at more than 300,000 yuan.
According to the sales of 26.275 million vehicles in the Chinese auto market in 2021, the market segment where "Wei Xiaoli" is located is about 2.36 million vehicles, and the sales ceiling of a single brand is 700,000 to 800,000 vehicles. This is also the sales cap of any single luxury brand BBA in China.
The market is small and the competition is not easy. In addition to traditional luxury brands, the competitors of "Wei Xiaoli" also have new car companies such as Tesla , which are currently the most fiercely competitive market segments.
On the contrary, the mainstream new energy market range where Deep Blue is located is still a blue ocean.
's first product, Deep Blue SL03, has launched a total of three energy forms: pure electric version, extended range version, and hydrogen electric version, and 4 configuration versions. The price after subsidy is 168,900-699,900 yuan. Among them, the starting price of the extended-range version that has been mass-produced and delivered is only 168,900 yuan, while the price of the pure electric version is 183,900 yuan and 215,900 yuan respectively.Since its launch in July,
has achieved sales in October of 6384 units, becoming one of the contributors to the surge in new energy sales in Changan in October. In the three months since its launch, the cumulative sales volume has exceeded 15,000 units.
A new brand that has been established for less than a year and has been delivered for less than 3 months is still in existence. The reason why it can achieve such results so quickly is that its outstanding product strength is also closely related to pricing.
For consumers, the new energy vehicle brand does not have much loyalty at present. Like Tesla, it also relies on price cuts to make orders. It also plans to launch products below 200,000 yuan in order to seize more mainstream mass consumers. In this case, on the one hand, the more expensive it is, the more it sells, the more it is, the more it is, the more it is the target mainstream Deep Blue, which is clear at a glance.
02 Deeper benches and stronger endurance
The external market structure can determine the upper limit, but it is not the only factor that determines the strength of a company. Just like BBA's sales are much higher than many mainstream joint venture brands.
Single data always has limitations and confusingness. You must go deep into the depths of the underlying logic to find the answer to the problem.
So, what are the key factors that affect a new energy vehicle brand?
The answer is technology and capital. The former is related to the depth of the bench and the latter is related to the strength of endurance. These two characteristics are the key to determining whether a car company can outperform the car-making marathon.
First look at the technology.
The fuel era looks at three major items, namely the engine, transmission and the three major items. What should I look at in the new energy era? In summary, it generally covers two sectors: electrification and intelligence.
With the launch of the first product of Dark Blue, Deep Blue SL03, Changan Deep Blue's technical route and the technical reserves it has also "revealed".
First of all, in terms of electrification, thanks to Changan's past accumulation in the three-electric field, Shenlan has laid out three technical routes: pure electric, extended-range and hydrogen electric. NIO and Xiaopeng are both pure electric brands, and Ideal will launch its first pure electric product as soon as 2023. In terms of intelligence, Deep Blue SL03 combines the success of Changan technology. With the support of black technologies such as the all-electric digital platform, the new generation of super-collection drive system, the micro-core high-frequency pulse heating, the intelligent vehicle domain controller "Changan Smart Core", the iBC digital battery manager and the intelligent parking system APA7.0 and NID3.0 high-end assisted driving, it has created a product label of "one all and four highs", among which the "four highs" represent high efficiency, high performance, high intelligence and high security respectively, and is significantly different from the new energy products on the market.
In comparison, although "Wei Xiaoli" also has clear brand labels, the technical threshold is not high and the business model is easy to be imitated.
For example, the ideal range extension technology has low cost and simple structure. The entire range extension device has mature and stable suppliers, and can quickly launch products. This is also the reason why Huawei can easily create two cars, namely M5 and M7 in a short time.
It is not realistic for new forces to use existing technology reserves to establish a generation difference advantage for traditional car companies' products. Therefore, NIO has played a differentiated service card and is the most successful. Xiaopeng tried to play the technology card and followed Tesla's old path, but now it seems that it is a bit powerless.
Let’s look at the funds again. Lack of money has always been a heart disease of new forces.
From the current account, although "Wei Xiaoli" is not short of money, there are still hidden dangers of explosions due to factors such as hematopoietic function, reduced trust in external capital, slowing growth rate and other factors.
As of the end of the second quarter, NIO, Xiaopeng and Ideal cash reserves were RMB 54.4 billion, RMB 41.339 billion and RMB 53.65 billion respectively.
But you earn more and lose more.
In the first three quarters, NIO had a cumulative net loss of 8.6808 billion yuan, Xiaopeng had a cumulative net loss of 5.997 billion yuan, and Ideal had a cumulative net loss of 759 million yuan.
plus the expansion of new models, sales and charging networks, and the continuous burning of money in R&D, this money may not be enough for "Wei Xiaoli".
As a traditional car company's "second generation creation", Deep Blue does not have such a problem. On the one hand, the parent company Changan Automobile can continuously transfusion blood to Deep Blue; on the other hand, the system advantages of Changan Automobile can help Deep Blue reduce costs, including a mature global R&D and manufacturing system, an endorsement of millions of vehicles, etc.
The bench is deeper and has stronger endurance. From a long-term perspective, Deep Blue can go further.
returns to the competition in the automotive industry, and its essence is competition in scale and cost.
Young new forces, although they are good at packaging gorgeous business stories, have many lessons to make up for in the basic skills of car manufacturing.
new view on the Internet:
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Judge the potential of a new energy brand, and we cannot only judge heroes by short-term sales, but also depends on the long-term stress resistance.
It is undeniable that "Wei Xiaoli" is the leader of the wave of consumption of new energy vehicles, but with the full efforts of domestic traditional car manufacturers, the first-mover advantage they have established is shrinking. Among the players who post
, Deep Blue, which is backed by Changan, has become a powerful challenger with its more mainstream positioning and comprehensive system advantages. Although
started late, the Dark Blue advances very quickly. According to the plan, Shenlan plans to launch 1-2 new models every year and complete the layout of 5 new models by 2025. The ultimate goal is to create a new blue ocean market of 150,000-300,000-300,000 electric vehicles to meet the quality green travel needs of mainstream people.
This is a new story different from "Wei Xiaoli". After high-end and micro, the mainstream will become the next main battlefield in the new energy vehicle market.
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