Since the beginning of this year, hot topics such as "expansion tide", "price increase of raw materials", and "insufficient high-end production capacity" have continued to "ferment" in the power battery industry. When the "TWh Era" where the industry has reached a consensus is approaching, whether it is a "defender" or an "attack party," the actions of the main players in the market seem to have hidden deep meaning and are particularly touching. Whether in the short or long term, these power battery companies must not only be bold, but also need to be careful in order to gain a firm foothold and advance in the torrent of industrial development.
Recently, the 8th G20-Lithium Battery Summit CEO Meeting (hereinafter referred to as the "Lithium Battery Summit") ended in Changzhou Jintan. This conference is an important discussion conducted by the industry after China's power battery market has entered a new round of industry cycles. The member companies agreed that the global new energy vehicle market signal has been very clear, and meeting the short-term and medium- and long-term needs of the market will be the next main line of the industry. Behind the prosperity of the power battery industry, what kind of truth and secret words are hidden?
From policy-led to market-led competition revolves around cost, customers and production capacity
After the implementation of the new energy vehicle subsidy policy in July 2019, my country’s new energy vehicle sales have experienced the first negative growth since 2017. The battery market is also affected. In August of that year, the installed capacity of power batteries in my country dropped by 26% month-on-month to only 3.5GWh.
Fang Jianhua, partner and president of the new energy vehicle venture capital sub-fund of the National Science and Technology Achievement Transformation Fund, said in an interview with the reporter of " China Automobile News" that the new energy vehicle industry was previously driven by policies, but this year it is completely Turn to market-driven. Specifically, it is manifested in three aspects: from the public consumption of new energy vehicles to a significant increase in the proportion of private consumption; the proportion of sales of new energy vehicles in non-restricted cities has increased significantly; in the first half of this year, the market size of new energy vehicles penetration rate_ span18span exceeds 10%.
This change is transmitted upward, and the power battery industry has also entered the market-driven era. After the industry "shuffle" in the past two years, driven by the high production and sales of new energy vehicles, the power battery industry has once again ushered in an explosion.
According to the data recently released by the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance (hereinafter referred to as the "Power Battery Innovation Alliance"), from January to July this year, my country’s cumulative power battery output was 92.1GWh, a year-on-year increase of 210.9%; installed power battery capacity The cumulative total reached 63.8GWh, a year-on-year increase of 183.5%.
Looking to the future, the continued growth of the power battery industry should be a definite event, which also means that the "TWh era" is coming. According to the "New Energy Automobile Industry Development Plan (2021-2035") released last year, by 2025, China's new energy vehicle sales will reach about 20% of the total sales of new vehicles. Fang Jianhua believes that from a demand perspective, With the “dual-carbon” goal proposed, the above-mentioned proportion will exceed the planned 20% by 2025, and the penetration rate may be close to 30%.
As the market scale continues to expand, changes in the power battery industry pattern have also become the focus of attention. Qingdao Automotive Research Institute of Jilin University Gu Guohong, deputy dean of Qingdao Automobile Research Institute, told reporters that the current competitive landscape of China's power battery industry is basically set, and five of the top ten companies in terms of installed capacity are preferred, and the next five are ranked It’s just fine-tuning.
According to the "Development of China's New Energy Vehicle and Power Battery Industry in the First Half of 2021" (hereinafter referred to as "Development") issued by the National Power Battery Innovation Center and Power Battery Innovation Alliance, during this time period, power The monthly installed capacity of batteries has significantly exceeded the same period in previous years. The growth of the new energy passenger vehicle market has become the most important driving factor. It is expected that the market will continue to maintain a good growth trend in the second half of this year, and the annual installed capacity is expected to exceed 125GWh. The "Development" also pointed out. According to the concentration level of the power battery industry in the first half of this year, the ranking of the top five leading companies such as Ningde Times, BYD and others in terms of vehicle loading volume remained stable.The passenger car market supporting facilities accounted for more than 70% of their respective shares.
Specifically, from January to July this year, a total of 53 power battery companies in my country’s new energy vehicle market have achieved installations, a decrease of 4 compared with the same period last year. The installed capacity of the top 3, top 5, and top 10 companies were 45.9. GWh, 53.7GWh and 58.5GWh, accounting for 72%, 84.2% and 91.7% of the total vehicle load respectively.
At the Lithium Battery Summit, member companies reached a consensus on the new development of the industry. Under the new cycle of the power battery industry, market competition will focus on costs, customers and production capacity.
This round of capacity expansion presents new features and the challenge lies in structural overcapacity
The lithium battery summit conveyed a point of view, that is, driven by the deterministic market demand, power batteries have entered a new round of expansion cycle, which is the same as in the past few years. Different, this round of capacity expansion shows obvious characteristics: first, the main body of expansion is concentrated in head power battery companies; second, the scale of expansion is significantly larger, basically in units of tens of billions (yuan); third, there is a multi-regional agglomeration The trend of globalization focuses on the centralized layout in Sichuan, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Fujian and other places.
On August 12, CATL put out a fixed increase plan totaling 58.2 billion yuan. The official response stated that fixed increase is a long-term strategic plan for the company as a whole, which requires a part of capital matching. According to the industry research report recently released by Ping An Securities , after the implementation of the expansion project of CATL, the number of 's capacity planning refreshed again. Among them, the total planned production capacity of CATL is nearly 260GWh, Liyang in Jiangsu, Yibin in Sichuan and Thuringia in Germany have planned production capacities of 100GWh, Zhaoqing in Guangdong nearly 70GWh, Qinghai 15GWh, and the total planned self-built capacity is close to 650GWh. In addition, the planned battery production capacity of CATL’s joint ventures with a number of vehicle companies is about 130GWh.
The expansion of the industry's leading enterprises is directional. According to the latest capacity plan of Honeycomb Energy, it is estimated that by 2025, the total capacity plan of its global layout will be upgraded from the original 100GWh to 200GWh.Achieve leapfrog development. In the first half of this year, Honeycomb Energy has invested in the construction of production bases and intelligent chemical plants in Suining, Sichuan, Huizhou, Zhejiang, Ma'anshan, Anhui, and Lishui, Nanjing.
In addition, in the second quarter of this year, Guoxuan High-Tech , AVIC Lithium and other power battery companies have also advanced new investment and construction measures such as signing, starting construction, and putting into production one after another. AVIC Lithium Battery reached a cooperation agreement in Xiamen in Fujian, Chengdu in Sichuan, and Wuhan in Hubei in May this year alone. For most power battery companies, in the industry environment, it is impossible not to expand production with competitors. However, there are also many problems in this process.
"Now, the industry is talking about the'TWh era', indicating that the market trend has taken shape." Fang Jianhua pointed out that from the current public information, the pace of capacity expansion of many companies is a bit big. In his view, power battery companies must first understand the real needs of the market and make appropriate advance expansion according to their customers and the number of orders; second, they must consider the impact of technological iterations, such as solid-state batteries. It may be available in batches around 2030, and the blindly expanding production capacity will face the impact of new technologies in 7 to 8 years.
It is worth noting that under the premise of massive expansion of the power battery industry, insufficient production capacity still exists. At present, this kind of structural overcapacity-that is, insufficient high-end capacity, low-end overcapacity has existed before. After the industry "shuffle", although the situation has changed, enterprises still need to learn from the lessons at this stage. "If a company expands blindly, there is a certain risk. Some companies may only have 6-7GWh of installed capacity this year, but the production capacity layout has reached 200GWh. Production capacity guarantees can be moderately advanced, but not too advanced. Too advanced is a kind of "Great Leap Forward." "The dry method is likely to produce'sunk assets'." Fang Jianhua said.
However, Zhongguancun New Battery Technology Innovation Alliance Secretary General and Chairman of the Battery Hundreds Association Yu Pingjiao told reporters that there is no need to worry too much about overcapacity. With the painful lessons of the industry "shuffle" in the past few years, existing companies invest Most production expansions are relatively cautious and rational.Sufficient demand support will drive the entire industry to a stage of high-quality and rapid development.
However, Yu Puritan also emphasized that risks still exist. He said: "The outbreak of demand is beyond expectations, and the supply chain is not ready. In this process, raw material prices are skyrocketing, and there will be some chaos in the market, and policy regulation and supervision need to be strengthened. Declared production capacity and actual production capacity There is a big gap, the real high-quality, high-quality production capacity is lacking."
"High nickel + lithium iron phosphate" long-term coexistence should pay attention to disruptive battery technology in the future
According to the statistics of the Power Battery Innovation Alliance, From January to July this year, China's ternary lithium battery installed a total of 35.6GWh, accounting for 55.8% of the total installed volume, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 124.3%; lithium iron phosphate battery has a cumulative installed volume of 28GWh, accounting for the total installed volume 43.9%, a cumulative increase of 333% year-on-year. From the current overall situation of the industry, the battery layout of mainstream car companies such as , Tesla, Volkswagen, and Mercedes-Benz "high nickel + lithium iron phosphate" has gradually become clear. Different cathode materials correspond to different models and products. Two types of batteries are expected in the future. Technical routes will coexist for a long time.
According to the content of the Lithium Battery Summit, after the power battery enters a new industry cycle, the speed of technological update and iteration accelerates, multiple chemical systems are developed in parallel, battery design and process innovation are endless, battery safety technology goals and requirements are gradually improved and costs are reduced. Enterprises need to continuously increase investment in innovative research and development, and drive forward with innovation.
Previously, the emergence of technologies and products such as Honeycomb Energy's cobalt-free battery, Great Wall Motor Dayu battery, and Ningde era's sodium ion battery have all attracted attention and heated discussions in the industry. The continuous development of power battery technology is actually deeply tied to the raw material supply chain. Prior to this, the market has always been dominated by lithium batteries. However, because lithium batteries are facing problems such as low reserves of lithium ore, difficult mining, and rising raw material prices,Many companies are focusing on the development of other types of battery technology.
In fact, under the background of "dual carbon", the new energy automobile industry has entered a stage of multi-level, multi-type and diversified development, and increasingly segmented markets have put forward differentiated demands for power batteries. The "Development" puts forward that with the gradual increase in the marketization of new energy vehicles, the market for segmented models has gradually matured, and the product structure of power batteries is also in a period of adjustment. Find a balance between cost, safety, and performance.
"The industry has been studying sodium ion batteries 20 or 30 years ago, and it is not a new product in itself. Although sodium ion batteries have advanced in technology, they may be used in market segments such as energy storage and industrial fields. , But it needs a process to improve the supply chain and achieve cost reduction.” Fang Jianhua emphasized that, like sodium-ion batteries, cobalt-free batteries mainly involve changes in battery materials and will not affect the entire production line, let alone The existing system of power batteries has caused a great impact.
According to Huang Qisen , deputy dean of Ningde Times Research Institute, in terms of manufacturing process, sodium-ion batteries can achieve perfect compatibility with lithium-ion battery production equipment and processes, and the production line can be quickly switched to complete the rapid layout of production capacity. At present, CATL has started the industrialization layout of sodium-ion batteries, and a basic industrial chain will be formed in 2023.
Industry insiders remind that after 2030, if solid-state battery is mass-produced and applied, the original power battery industry chain may suffer a disruptive impact, and the current expanded production capacity will also be affected to a certain extent.
"Under the influence of market orientation, the battery technology route will flourish and advance in parallel. There are many factors that need to be weighed in which technology to choose, such as whether it is environmentally friendly, whether resources are easy to obtain, whether there is an advantage in cost, whether safety is guaranteed, Whether there are patent barriers, whether it is convenient to use, etc." Yu Qingjiao said that the existing battery technology has its own advantages and disadvantages, time will give the answer, and ultimately the market will determine the fate. Businesses can't just conceptualize for the sake of concepts, but take advantage of the trend.
Usher in new pressures and challenges Battery companies must learn to empower
"my country's power batteries have entered a new round of high prosperity cycle.Financing, investment, production expansion, orders and other aspects have ushered in a new round of upsurge. Compared with the previous round of policy-led industrial boom, the outbreak of this round is supported by deep domestic and foreign market demand and has more confidence. "For the current new round of the industry cycle, Yu Puritan stated that, "I am very optimistic about the development track of power batteries in the next 3 to 15 years.
However, under many auras, the industry also has some invisible "traps". Ping An Securities' industry research report pointed out that with the continuous growth of the production and sales base of new energy vehicles, the growth rate of production and sales is showing signs of slowing down. It will become more and more difficult for the installed capacity of power batteries to maintain a high growth rate. Afterwards, the introduction of mainstream models for the masses will become the key. In addition, the continued decline in subsidies and the continuous release of new production capacity have caused all links in the industry chain to face price reduction pressures, and the market " The price war" has intensified. With the growth of the domestic market and the decline of subsidies, overseas giants are accelerating their steps to enter the domestic market, bringing new impacts to the industrial structure.
We must do a good job in the production capacity layout facing future market demand, build a safe and sustainable supply chain system, and welcome the arrival of the "TWh era." However, in the short term, the industry is currently in the most critical stage of capacity ramping, upstream and downstream of the industrial chain Enterprises must unite, understand each other, collaborate with each other, overcome difficulties, and jointly cope with the pressures and challenges in the supply chain. Fang Jianhua emphasized that enterprises cannot simply and blindly expand production capacity, but must improve their core competitiveness, based on actual conditions. The market demand guarantees product quality, cost control, consistency, etc.; in addition, it is also necessary to select product technical routes according to market positioning and product positioning. “In the past two years, with the emergence of some new lithium iron phosphate battery technologies, Commercial vehicles and national vehicles have very good application prospects. "He said. Others in the industry also said that the power battery industry cannot simply bet on popular technologies, just look at technical parameters, and be guided by policy subsidies. Battery safety, cost performance, and consumer experience are all important. Measurement standard.
Wang Zhikun, executive vice president of Honeycomb Energy , said in an interview that CATL is now gradually accelerating the pace of production expansion and will further widen the distance with other companies as the production capacity is launched. In this case,Other power battery companies are looking for their own advantages and positioning. The Ningde era's layout is more diversified, and other power battery companies must focus on their own unique categories and concentrate resources to highlight their advantages, so as to win the market and the future.
In addition, for power battery companies, the next step is to focus on the in-depth integration of production lines with AI intelligence, big data, and cloud computing. This means that in addition to cooperating with existing equipment companies, external companies such as cloud computing companies and technology companies need to be introduced for empowerment.
Text: Zhao Qiong Editor: Pang Guoxia Format: Li Peiyang
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