Finding good companies and growing with them is the most interesting thing to invest in. In the future, I will use the weekend to share with you more good companies in my eyes.
If you want to ask, what is the most certain super outlet in the next 5 years?
My answer is: new energy vehicles.
In the domestic market, under the two-wheel drive of the European policy, it is estimated that by 2025, my country's new energy vehicle production and sales will exceed 5 million, and the world will exceed 15 million, corresponding to a penetration rate of about 16%, which is equivalent to 4-5 times the current space. , The compound annual growth rate exceeds 30%.
Although the automakers Weilai, BYD, Ningde, a battery manufacturer, and Enjie, a diaphragm manufacturer, have all experienced amazing growth this year.
But as long as the wind on the electric car track continues to blow, then a new king will surely emerge.
Today, I will share with you my thoughts on Funeng Technology.
One, the potential king of soft pack batteries
The largest cost item of electric vehicles is batteries, which account for about 40% and occupy a core position in the industry chain. The well-known Ningde era is the absolute leader in the battery field, with a domestic market share of more than 50%, and it is also the leader in the world. The market value of
is nearly 600 billion, which is a spike in electric vehicle manufacturers.
This is the benefit of "selling shovel". No matter who your Tesla or Weilai ideal wins or loses, as long as the big plate of electric vehicles is growing rapidly, you must use batteries, and you will not escape the Ningde era. palm. According to estimates by Minsheng Securities, by 2025, the global installed capacity of power batteries will reach around 900GWh from the current 200GWh+. The cake of
is so big that both overseas and domestic competitors are eyeing it. Funeng Technology is one of them.
power battery is divided into three types: cylindrical battery, square battery and soft pack battery.
Ningde era mainly produces square batteries, which are the current mainstream. Funeng Technology chose a soft pack battery, which is a relatively marginal route in China. The reason why the
soft pack battery has not become mainstream is that although it has the advantages of high safety (not easy to explode), high energy density, long cycle life, etc., due to the thin outer packaging, it is necessary to add metal to the pack link to prevent puncture The protective layer makes the grouping efficiency low and the cost increased.
Even Tesla started to change the ternary to lithium iron phosphate batteries in order to reduce costs, not to mention soft packs? Therefore, the penetration rate of soft bags in China is only 8.8%.
However, European and American car manufacturers have a soft spot for soft pack batteries. At present, the overseas penetration rate of soft pack batteries is as high as 33%.
The global soft-pack power battery companies LGC, SKI, AESC, etc. have configured a number of mainstream models for Volkswagen, Audi, Nissan, Hyundai-Kia, GM, Renault and other car companies. Among them, the Nissan Leaf model uses a soft-pack power battery. From its launch in December 2010 to the beginning of 2020, the total sales volume has exceeded 450,000 units, making it the world's first pure electric new energy vehicle with a total sales volume of over 400,000 units.
So, the penetration rate of domestic soft-pack batteries is unreasonably low.
Of course, this can't rely solely on perceptual guesses.
In fact, from the data point of view, with the advancement of technology, the group efficiency of soft pack batteries is improving, and the cost gap with square batteries is shrinking. This laid the foundation for the increase in penetration rate.
Funeng Technology is mainly engaged in ternary soft pack power battery cells, modules and battery packs.
Judging from the 2019 data, the power battery business revenue was 2.314 billion yuan, accounting for 94.45% of the total operating income; the gross profit was 526 million yuan, accounting for 91.35% of the total gross profit.
In the field of soft pack power batteries, the company's product shipments and installed capacity ranked third in the world for two consecutive years in 2017 and 2018, and first in the country.
Once the penetration rate of soft pack batteries increases, it will undoubtedly blow Funeng Technology into the air. Everything is ready now, just waiting for the wind to come.
Two, hug Daimler's thigh
Dongfeng did not wait for it, but relied on technology to win.
Currently, the company has successfully supplied BAIC New Energy, GAC New Energy, Great Wall Motors, FAW, Jiangling, ChinaGizjun and many other car companies.
is most worth mentioning is that in November 2018, it won Daimler's super big order-2021-2027, Funeng will supply Daimler with 140GWh power batteries!
In addition, when it was listed on the Science and Technology Innovation Board, Daimler invested 900 million yuan in a stake in Funeng Technology, acquiring about 3% of the shares, and was deeply bound with Funeng. What is the concept of
?
In 2019, Funeng Technology’s shipment volume was 2.29GW. Since 21 years, Daimler has been supporting an average of 20GW per year, which is almost a tenfold increase.
According to Daimler Group’s long-term electrification strategic goals and the current delivery progress, we can roughly understand the pace of order release:
1) samples will be delivered in 20 years;
2) 21Q2 official SOP (with mass production conditions)
3) 22 years Shipment 10+GWh
4) Shipment of 20-30GWh in 23 years.
5) Around 2025, sales of Mercedes-Benz pure electric vehicles will account for 15-25% of total sales.
looks back on the development history of the Ningde era. In addition to attaching importance to research and development and taking advantage of policy, the key point is to hold your thighs.
At the end of 2011, the cooperation between BMW and Ningde enabled Ningde to enter the fast lane of development, and from then on.
Therefore, holding Daimler's thighs tightly is an important aspect of Fu Neng in the future.
briefly summarize: in the next year, Funeng Technology's market share will increase the key to domestic models, especially the sales of GAC Aion; and the next two years and beyond, the key to the high volume of Mercedes-Benz electric vehicles.
Third, the production capacity is rapidly releasing
With orders, sufficient production capacity is needed to effectively achieve performance growth.
In 2018, the company increased its capital by 6.4 billion yuan + IPO raised 3.4 billion yuan in 2020. With tens of billions of funds in hand, the next two years will usher in the peak of capacity expansion.
Funeng Technology has 13GWh of soft package power capacity, including 5GWh in Ganzhou and 8GWh in Zhenjiang, and the effective capacity is around 5GWh. The effective production capacity of
in 2021 is 10-13GWh (Zhenjiang Phase I 5-6Gwh, Phase II 1-2Gwh).
From the perspective of nominal production capacity, Funeng Technology's nominal production capacity can reach 24GWh in 2022, which is three times higher than the 8GWh in 2020.
is not enough if there is capacity alone, it has to be used.
With the expansion of production capacity, Funeng's capacity utilization rate in 2020 has dropped significantly compared to 2017-2019.
was mainly due to the epidemic in the first half of the year and the adjustment of customer structure. Great Wall Group, the first customer in 2019, contributed zero revenue in 20H1. The decline in the company's shipments led to a reduction in capacity utilization.
Starting from Q3 2020, with the recovery of downstream customer production schedules, an increase in GAC's share, and the increase of two-wheeler customers, the company's capacity utilization rate has begun to rise.
rose from 5% to 30%, of course, it is still too low compared to before. Here comes the question of
: Mercedes-Benz's heavy volume is concentrated in the period of 2022-2030, can the effective production capacity of 5-8GWh increased in 2021-2022 be effectively used?
Judging from the situation in Q3, , the increase of Funeng's capacity utilization rate from 20 to 21 years mainly depends on domestic auto companies, such as GAC, Great Wall, and Jiangling.
1) According to the survey, next year's GAC sales guidance will be adjusted from 100,000-120,000 to 150,000, and the demand for battery modules will be 10-12.5GWh. The company's share of GAC Aion V is 60%-65%.
2) The company announced on August 26, 2020 that it has received a notice from Dongfeng Motor. The battery demand is expected to be 5GWh in the next 7 years.
3) On September 19, 2020, a strategic cooperation agreement was signed with Jiangling Group and Guoji Zhijun, which will provide Jiangling Group with approximately 6.75GWh of power batteries by 2025, and approximately 4.5 GWh for Guoji Zhijun by the end of 2023. GWh.
4) On October 28, 2020, signed a fixed-point agreement with Brilliance New Energy, Starting at the end of 2020, about 4.5GWh in 5 years. If
does not consider other future increments, we cautiously estimate that Funeng’s shipment volume in 2021 may be around 5-6GWh. The capacity utilization rate is around 50%. Although
is still low for the time being, if there are new orders or Daimler's installed capacity exceeds expectations, there may be a greater increase.
...
analyzed the fundamentals and finally talked about Funeng's stock price performance.
Objectively speaking: Funeng Technology's trend is obviously not as good as Ningde, Enjie shares and other industry leaders. Recently, the trend is weaker as the sector adjusts. The main reason for
is:
1) The market is worried about the decline in the market share of soft pack batteries. In the first May of 2020, the cumulative market share of China's soft pack power batteries was as low as 4.3%, and the market share in 2018 was still over 13%.
2) The market is worried about the price increase of ternary cathode materials, and the future increase will be large, which will affect the cost of the company;
3) Compared with first-line battery manufacturers such as Ningde, the company's performance in the first three quarters is not satisfactory. Relevant data shows that among the 16 listed companies involved in lithium batteries, in the third quarter of this year, 13 companies have seen an increase in revenue compared with the same period last year, and 10 companies have seen a simultaneous increase in net profit. In the first three quarters of 2020, the company's revenue was 558 million yuan, down 64.94% year-on-year; the net profit attributable to the parent was affected by government subsidies and other factors to -377 million yuan, down 20.03 times year-on-year.
However, the reasons for being optimistic about Funeng Technology in the medium and long term have been given above:
1) Material price increases are a short- and medium-term impact. The increase in the company's capacity utilization after 2021 can reduce fixed costs;
2) With and downstream car companies With more cooperation, Funeng Technology’s market share may increase;
3) With the increase in the scale of revenue and the increase in capacity utilization brought by the first two items, the performance can see an inflection point.
Next, the key for Funeng Technology is to see if there can be more orders and to support 21 years of performance. After 22 years, it may be a year of great success.
final statement: I do not hold Funeng Technology stocks and am not a stakeholder. The content of this article is only for the company's fundamental communication, and does not constitute buying advice. Please refer to it as appropriate.
The stock market is risky, and investment needs to be cautious.
This article does not constitute investment advice
