BYD revolutionized the lithium iron phosphate battery with blade batteries, and CATL used 2.5 billion to take the lead in intelligent fixed increase. This series of events made the market competition of power batteries more intense. Today, Shell Investment Research (ID: Beiketouyan) will introduce this circuit with a lot of imagination-power battery.
1. With policy boost, the spring of new energy vehicles is here!
1. Policies boost the volume of new energy vehicles
On November 2, the "New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2021-2035)" was released, and the sales of new energy vehicles and new vehicles in 2025 will reach about 20% of the total sales of new vehicles. is more pragmatic than the 25% penetration rate target in the previous solicitation of opinions, and it has determined the mainstream route for pure electric vehicles to be sold.
At present, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in my country is only about 4%. If the proportion of new energy vehicle sales in 2025 is calculated to reach 20%, then it is expected that the average annual compound growth rate of new energy vehicle sales in the next 5 years will be Up to 30% or more. In terms of technology, the plan points out that the average power consumption target for new pure electric vehicles will be reduced to 12 kWh/100 km by 2025. In addition to the marginal improvement in the efficiency of the electric drive system, the decrease in the average power consumption of electric vehicles will mainly be through the increase in the energy density of the battery system. Technical iterations such as the Tesla large cylinder, CATL CTP, and BYD blade batteries to increase the overall energy density of the battery system depend on the engineering realization capabilities of the equipment company.
2, classification of power batteries
power batteries are mainly divided into two categories, lithium iron phosphate (LiFePO4) batteries and ternary lithium batteries (including nickel cobalt manganese-NCM, nickel cobalt aluminum-NCA, etc.). The proportion of other types of such as lithium manganese batteries, lithium titanate batteries, super capacitors, and solid-state batteries is relatively small. In the long run, solid-state batteries may change the current power battery pattern. However, the technology of solid-state batteries is not yet mature and is expected to be fully commercialized around 2030.
Generally speaking, the lithium iron phosphate battery has the characteristics of good safety and low cost, and the ternary battery has a longer cruising range due to its higher energy density. Due to different application scenarios, approximately 93% of pure electric buses are equipped with lithium iron phosphate, while approximately 74% of pure electric passenger vehicles are equipped with ternary lithium batteries. The trend of mainly installing
ternary batteries remains unchanged. From January to September 2020, the installed capacity of ternary and lithium iron phosphate power batteries was 23.13GWh and 10.09GWh respectively, accounting for 67.7% and 29.6% of the total installed capacity, an increase of 2.6pct and 1.6pct year-on-year.
3. BYD has changed the rules of the game for power batteries-blade batteries
Compared with ternary lithium batteries, BYD chose to focus on the development of lithium iron phosphate batteries. BYD has been continuously optimizing the physical structure of the lithium iron phosphate battery to improve its cruising range by increasing the energy density of the system.
In 2019, BYD chose to deploy ternary lithium batteries in all passenger cars, and lithium iron phosphate batteries were used in all commercial vehicles. However, with BYD's release of its blade battery on March 29, 2020, future installed capacity will change.
is a lithium iron phosphate battery. The most important achievement of the blade battery is that it improves the overall energy density of the battery pack through process improvement, thereby overcoming the shortcoming of short cruising range. Compared with the ternary lithium battery, the blade battery also retains the advantages of high safety and long life of the traditional lithium iron phosphate battery. In the battery acupuncture test, the ternary lithium battery can only achieve safety at the battery pack level, while the blade battery can improve it to the cell level. At the same time, the blade battery can make the NEDC cruising range of the new car reach more than 600 kilometers, solving the mileage anxiety problem of the traditional lithium iron phosphate battery.
2. The key investment target in the power battery industry chain of is
. In 2019, the total installed capacity of power batteries in China is 62.8GWh. CATL is a major player in the power battery industry with a market share of 51.8%. BYD ranked second with a market share of 17.3%. countryXuan Hi-Tech ranks third with a market share of 5.33%. The industrial chain of
power batteries can be divided into three parts: upstream raw materials, midstream production and downstream applications. The power battery system can be simply divided into two parts: hardware and software (battery management system). In terms of production, hardware includes various levels, namely batteries, modules and final battery packs (systems). The battery cell can be further divided into positive electrode, negative electrode, electrolyte and diaphragm. These parts are derived from the corresponding raw materials and constitute the upstream of the entire power battery value chain. The upstream of
power battery is dominated by mineral resources such as cobalt, manganese, nickel and lithium. Cobalt, manganese, nickel, lithium and other raw materials are used as cathode materials. Lithium ore can also be used for negative electrodes and electrolytes. Graphite is mainly used for negative electrodes. The midstream includes the manufacture of positive electrodes, negative electrodes, electrolytes and separators, and the realization of core-pack-pack production processes. The downstream of power batteries are mainly new energy vehicle OEMs and energy storage departments.
There are not many typical subdivision leaders of in the power battery industry chain, and only has a few .
Cathode material: Dangsheng Technology
Anode material: Premiere
Diaphragm: Enjie shares
Electrolyte: Xinzhoubang, Tianci material
Conductive agent: Tiannai technology
(1) 4zzz 5 shares-diaphragm leading In 2018, Enjie completed the acquisition of 90.08% shares of Shanghai Enjie and entered the field of lithium battery separators. From the perspective of Enjie’s diaphragm business, Enjie’s financial indicators have performed very well in recent years. In recent years, the gross profit margin has been above 50%. Enjie's lithium battery separator has significant customer advantages, including more than 20 domestic and foreign lithium battery companies such as Panasonic, Samsung, CATL and BYD.
(2) Putailai-the leading anode material
Putailai is the leading anode material, lithium battery material + core equipment supplier. was the first to establish Jiangxi Zichen's negative electrode material business; in 2019, it acquired 32% equity of Zhenxing Carbon through acquisition and capital increase, and deployed needle coke upstream of the negative electrode.
( three ) Tianci materials-electrolyte faucet
Tianci materials is the leading electrolyte production capacity with obvious advantages in scale. Tianci Materials is deep in the fine chemical industry, starting with daily chemical materials and specialty chemicals, and entered the lithium battery electrolyte business in 2005. In 2019, the supply ratio to CATL was more than half.
3. Summary
With the further expansion of the new energy vehicle market, Shell Investment Research (ID:Beiketouyan) believes that BYD and CATL continue to compete in R&D, market, and upstream industry chain, and promote the formation of a duopoly of power batteries. It will also affect the future development of the new energy automobile industry. (Ty003)
