In the blink of an eye, it’s time for the oil price adjustment window to open. According to the 2023 price adjustment schedule, oil prices will be officially adjusted at 24:00 tonight. However, since the beginning of this oil price statistical cycle, the overall price adjustment amount has shown an upward trend, and the cumulative increase is higher than the upward red line. , oil prices will rise tonight. Judging from current statistics and the performance of crude oil prices last weekend, the price increase is expected to be above 260 yuan/ton (the retail price increase is greater than 0.2 yuan/liter). Fuel vehicle owners may have to refuel in advance.
While analysts expect that the crude oil market will pay more attention to weak demand this year, Venezuela's crude oil exports are gradually recovering. Last weekend, Venezuela began loading 250,000 barrels of heavy crude oil at the Zulia port for export to the United States. Previously, the United States' sanctions on Venezuela were relaxed, and Chevron was able to expand its oil business in Venezuela.
This is the first time in four years that Venezuela has exported crude oil to the United States as the United States tightened sanctions in 2018. Sources said that tankers carrying Venezuelan crude oil are expected to be loaded and shipped to U.S. refineries by January 2.
Eight days after the restart of Chevron’s Petroboscan bitumen crude oil project on December 21, the first batch of oil arrived at Zulia port, with current daily production of approximately 10,000 barrels.
According to Vortexa data, the UACC Eagle tanker chartered by Chevron will also arrive at the Jose Terminal in Venezuela on January 5, loading 620,400 barrels of oil. Chevron has crude oil stocks in Venezuela, which have been accumulated in the four years of being sanctioned by the United States.
Aviation fuel consumption on the U.S. West Coast is on an upward trend in 2022 and is expected to increase further in early 2023. Consumer demand for air travel has increased in 2022 as borders reopen and U.S. passenger flying levels return to near pre-pandemic levels. Airlines expect this trend to continue in 2023.
By the end of 2022, U.S. airlines passenger volume is expected to reach 90% of 2019 levels. According to data from global travel executive consulting firm Teneo, the number of U.S. air passengers in 2023 is expected to reach 96% of 2019 levels. %, California is the largest producer, consumer and importer of aviation fuel on the West Coast. California produced 265,190 barrels of aviation fuel per day in 2022, an increase of 20% from last year. Aviation fuel throughput is expected to continue to increase in the first quarter of 2023.
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, total U.S. jet fuel consumption has been growing in 2022, starting the year at 1.4 million barrels per day and reaching nearly 1.6 million barrels per day by the end of September. Forecasts for the first quarter of 2023 suggest that this trend will continue. In 2019, refineries on the U.S. West Coast in California, Washington state, and Alaska produced 164.9 million barrels (451,800 barrels per day) of jet fuel.
Production fell 43% to 94.8 million barrels in 2020, reaching 121.3 million barrels in 2021, and is expected to exceed 2021 at more than 155 million barrels in 2022, while production in 2023 is expected to be the same as in 2019.
However, according to Vortexa data, aviation fuel imports on the West Coast in 2022 dropped by 2.8% compared with last year. In addition, S&P Global predicts that the U.S. and European economies are likely to fall into a mild recession in the first half of 2023, which will have a negative impact on oil demand and oil prices.
